South Caucasus

n Baku, flags on official buildings and embassies of foreign countries flew at half mast Thursday (26 December) as Azerbaijan observed a day of mourning following the crash of an AZAL plane which resulted in the death of 38 passengers and crew. The plane was on  a scheduled flight from Baku to Grozny, but was diverted to Kazakhstan because of bad weather. President Ilham Aliyev was informed of the crash whilst on his way to St Petersburg where he was to attend the informal CIS summit hosted by President Putin. He ordered his plan to return to Baku to lead the Azerbaijani response to the crash. Azerbaijani media speculated about the causes  of the crash, with some outlets saying that it was hit by a Chechen missile whilst approaching Grozny.

In an interview with Armenpress Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan discussed a number of critical aspects of the pending peace treaty with Azerbaijan. In his view, the Armenia-Azerbaijan peace treaty would gain superior legal force over Armenian laws and the topic of territorial demands would be closed forever. Prime Minister Pashinyan stated that the same would happen in Azerbaijan meaning that the signing of the peace treaty would practically dispel the concerns of both Armenia and Azerbaijan particularly in relation to their respective constitutions. The Prime Minister also noted that Armenia was not engaged in an arms race with any country but was acquiring armaments exclusively for defending Armenia’s borders and territorial integrity.

In an interview with Armenpress Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan discussed a number of critical aspects of the pending peace treaty with Azerbaijan. In his view, the Armenia-Azerbaijan peace treaty would gain superior legal force over Armenian laws and the topic of territorial demands would be closed forever. Prime Minister Pashinyan stated that the same would happen in Azerbaijan meaning that the signing of the peace treaty would practically dispel the concerns of both Armenia and Azerbaijan particularly in relation to their respective constitutions. The Prime Minister also noted that Armenia was not engaged in an arms race with any country but was acquiring armaments exclusively for defending Armenia’s borders and territorial integrity.

In an interview with Armenpress Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan discussed a number of critical aspects of the pending peace treaty with Azerbaijan. In his view, the Armenia-Azerbaijan peace treaty would gain superior legal force over Armenian laws and the topic of territorial demands would be closed forever. Prime Minister Pashinyan stated that the same would happen in Azerbaijan meaning that the signing of the peace treaty would practically dispel the concerns of both Armenia and Azerbaijan particularly in relation to their respective constitutions. The Prime Minister also noted that Armenia was not engaged in an arms race with any country but was acquiring armaments exclusively for defending Armenia’s borders and territorial integrity.

Events in Georgia are in the spotlight in Brussels this week with European leaders putting the political situation in Tbilisi on their agenda during the EU Council meeting for Heads of Government on Thursday. On Wednesday, the President of Georgia Salome Zourabichvili delivered a speech to the European Parliament in Strasbourg.

On 10 December, the Center for Analysis of International Relations (AIR Center), a Baku-based political think tank closely affiliated with the Azerbaijani government, held a high-level international conference titled “The Main Obstacle to a Peace Agreement Between Azerbaijan and Armenia.” The conference identified the territorial claims in Armenia’s constitution against Azerbaijan as the primary obstacle to peace.

European Union foreign ministers have agreed to ask the European Commission to prepare a proposal for the suspension of visa-free travel for Georgian officials holding diplomatic passports as a consequence of the  crackdown in Georgia on pro-EU protests. This measure will be a considerable setback for the government in Tbilisi.

The situation in Georgia is currently very critical. As commonspace.eu pointed out in its editorial published on 2nd December time has run out for Bizhina Ivanishvili and his Georgian Dream party. What remains for Ivanishvili and his associates is to agree an honourable exit after agreeing to new elections, which must be administered by a credible body. However, every day that Georgian Dream procrastinates, its position weakens. And every statement of its leaders makes things worse. The Georgian Dream had everything going for it but it squandered its political capital and its legacy. Ivanishvili tried to manage Georgian politics like a business. He failed to build bridges with opponents and relied on inexperienced people who failed to understand how Georgian politics worked. Georgia needs to come out of this experience stronger than before.

The negotiation process between Armenia and Azerbaijan since 2022 has followed a recurring pattern: initial optimism for a peace agreement to be signed by year’s end, followed by disappointment as talks falter. The year 2024 was no exception, beginning with hopeful developments and concluding with unresolved disputes. In December 2023, Armenia and Azerbaijan signed a joint declaration in which Armenia supported Azerbaijan’s bid to host the COP29 climate summit in November 2024, and Azerbaijan released 32 Armenian prisoners of war. This gesture set a positive tone, with COP29 serving as an informal deadline for a peace agreement.