Geostrategic Europe

The Informal Summit of the Organization of Turkic States (OTS), held on May 20-21, 2025, in Budapest, Hungary, marked a significant milestone in the organisation’s growing geopolitical influence. Hosted by Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, the summit brought together leaders from Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Türkiye, and Uzbekistan, alongside observer states Hungary, Turkmenistan, and the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus. This gathering, the first OTS summit hosted by an observer state, underscored Hungary’s role as a bridge between the Turkic world and Europe, reflecting the theme “Meeting Point of East and West.”

Russia is expanding its military footprint in Africa, delivering sophisticated weaponry to sub-Saharan conflict zones where a Kremlin-controlled armed force is on the rise. Skirting sanctions imposed by Western nations, Moscow is using cargo ships to send tanks, armoured vehicles, artillery and other high-value equipment to West Africa, according to the Associated Press.

On May 20–21, 2025, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov’s visit to Yerevan marked a significant moment in the evolving dynamics of Armenia–Russia relations, signaling Moscow’s intent to stabilize and reinforce ties with its long-standing ally in the South Caucasus. Set against the backdrop of deteriorating Russia–Azerbaijan relations following the tragic crash of an Azerbaijani airliner plane on December 25, 2024, the visit highlighted Russia’s delicate balancing act in a region where its influence is increasingly contested. Lavrov’s talks with Armenian leaders focused on reaffirming bilateral commitments within the frameworks of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) and the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU).

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has appointed a team of legal experts to start working on a new constitution with critics saying it could allow him to remain in power beyond 2028, when his current term ends. Erdogan, who has led Türkiye as president since 2014 and was prime minister for more than a decade before that, has advocated for a new constitution arguing that the current one, which was drafted following a military coup in 1980, is outdated and retains elements of military influence even though it was amended several times.

Following the parliamentary elections of October 2024, the ruling Georgian Dream party created favourable conditions for the growth of Russian influence in the region according to the annual report of the US Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) that has just been presented to the US Congress. The report says Moscow is almost certainly seeking to bring Georgia back into its sphere of influence and has already made progress through internal political developments in the country.

Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan told the Yerevan Dialogue that “sustainable and lasting peace between Armenia and Azerbaijan is not only possible, but within reach” as he delivered an update on the current status of peace talks to participants of the 2nd annual forum on Monday. Negotiations over a draft agreement were completed in March, and Armenia and Azerbaijan indicated their willingness to sign it.

Russia announced on Sunday it had exchanged another 303 Ukrainian prisoners of war for the same number of Russian soldiers held by Kyiv, the last phase of the largest-ever such swap between the warring countries. Russia and Ukraine have over three days "carried out the exchange of 1,000 people for 1,000 people", the defence ministry said. Meanwhile,  US President Donald Trump called his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin "crazy" on Sunday after Moscow launched a deadly barrage of drones against Ukraine.

In the last few days, the EU and the UK took the first public steps to censure Israel for its actions in Gaza. It was done ever so gently that one could not be blamed for not noticing, but politically it was a seismic step taken after much consideration and soul-searching, and it will have long-term implications. But for many, it is too little, too late. Gaza is a tragedy that the West has been unable to prevent. It will haunt the West, particularly Europe for a long time to come.

Sunday (18 May) marked a key electoral date in Europe with Romania holding its presidential runoff, and Poland and Portugal voting in the first round of presidential and parliamentary elections, respectively. The results underscored the current political landscape of Europe marked by both the resilience of pro-European Union (EU) forces and the rising influence of right-wing populist movements. This surge of right-wing populism is not a new phenomenon, but part of a trend building over the past 15 years. Sunday's vote should serve as a wake-up call: Europe can no longer afford to hit the snooze button on the rise of right-wing populism.