South Caucasus

The President of Armenia will make an official visit to Kazakhstan on Tuesday (15 October) to discuss further strengthening of Kazakh-Armenian cooperation with Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev. The two leaders will discuss cooperation in various political and economic areas, such as trade and migration, as well as enhancing cultural and humanitarian exchanges. 

As this year's United Nations Climate Change Conference in Baku draws closer, negotiations between Armenia and Azerbaijan appear to be drifting further apart. Despite hopes that the opposite would be true, a lack of clarity and confusion instead continues to reign. Does the draft Agreement on Peace and Establishment of Interstate Relations contain 17 points or 16? Initially, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan had announced that consensus had been reached on 13 points while 3 were partially agreed and there was no agreement at all on a fourth. Since then, official statements and media in Armenia instead refers to 16 points though Yerevan has reportedly ditched the three incomplete articles to make only 13.

The European Union has decided to cancel €121 million in funds intended to support Georgia's economic development and its aspirations for EU membership. The decision was confirmed by the EU delegation in Georgia, which said that the growing repression of dissent was the reason for the withdrawal of financial assistance.

On Tuesday (8 October), Russian President Vladimir Putin and Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan agreed at the summit of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) to withdraw Russian border guards from the Armenian-Iranian frontier as of January 2025 and replace them with Armenian border guards. In addition, the Turkish border will be guarded by both Russian and Armenian guards.

Alexander Bortnikov, the director of Russia's Federal Security Service (FSB), has claimed that Armenia is postponing peace talks with Azerbaijan in order to deploy a NATO contingent in the South Caucasus, in line with a Western agenda. These remarks have been refuted by Peter Stano, a spokesman for the European External Action Service (EEAS). Stano claims that the West strongly supports the peace process between Armenia and Azerbaijan and has no intention of establishing a NATO presence in the region.  

In September, it was announced that China has joined Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, and Georgia as a partner in the Middle Corridor Initiative, with the China Railway Container Transport Corporation (CRTC) participating in the project. The decision followed extended talks over several months and was confirmed during the 8th International Silk Road Expo, held in Xi’an from September 19-20, 2024. This announcement comes amid the growing significance of the Middle Corridor, also known as the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route (TITR), as a crucial trade link between China and Europe, passing through several Central Asian and South Caucasian countries. The Middle Corridor Multimodal joint venture, established in 2023, offers a “one-stop-shop” service for cargo delivery along this route, aiming to enhance transport coordination, provide transparent tariffs, and ensure consistent delivery times.

The US Helsinki Commission on Tuesday (1 October) published an analysis of Russia's political and economic agenda. The document addresses, among other things, various developments in the South Caucasus. The region is experiencing various political shifts as Russia's material influence wanes due to its focus on its war with Ukraine. On the one hand. Armenia was once one of Russia's strongest allies. However, following the Nagorno Karabakh war in 2020, Armenia has moved away from Moscow and more towards a Western agenda. On the other hand, Azerbaijan has adopted a cooperative approach with Russia, especially given the similarities between the two countries' strong governmental grip.   

Ruben Vardanyan, an Armenian ex-official of the self-declared Nagorno Karabakh administration, was arrested and imprisoned along with other top Karabakh officials during Baku's recapture of Nagorno Karabakh in September 2023. On Thursday (3 October), Vardanyan's lawyers filed a lawsuit in Baku for alleged torture and denial of a speedy trial. 

On Wednesday (3 October), the Tavush movement, under the new name of the Holy Struggle, held a political rally in Yerevan's Republic Square. The movement was formed to protest against border delimitation with Azerbaijan, but also to demand the resignation of Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan. The newly chosen name, 'Holy Struggle', is a strategic way of attracting support, particularly by exploiting its Christian overtones.