Iran and Afghanistan

On 18 October, the 3+3 regional cooperation platform which hypothetically includes Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia “plus” three surrounding powers (Türkiye, Iran, and Russia) convened the third meeting at the ministerial level, though again without the participation of Georgia. Hosted by Türkiye in Istanbul, the meeting took place amidst a sensitive security situation in the wider region due to the ramifications of the Russia-Ukraine war, the potential Iran-Israel war, the upcoming fateful parliamentary elections in Georgia, and certainly, the persisting challenges in the Armenia-Azerbaijan peace process.

On Tuesday (8 October), Russian President Vladimir Putin and Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan agreed at the summit of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) to withdraw Russian border guards from the Armenian-Iranian frontier as of January 2025 and replace them with Armenian border guards. In addition, the Turkish border will be guarded by both Russian and Armenian guards.

In a telephone conversation with his Israeli counterpart Gallant, US Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin promised that an aircraft carrier already on its way to the Middle East would be speeded up. The US is also sending a nuclear submarine with guided missiles - the USS Georgia - to the region. The US aircraft carrier USS Theodore Roosevelt has been in the region for some time and will soon be joined by the USS Abraham Lincoln, which will carry advanced Joint Strike Fighter jets.

Hamas's top political leader Ismail Haniyeh has been killed in the Iranian capital Tehran, Hamas and Iranian state media reported early Wednesday morning (31 July). Haniyeh was killed in an attack on the house where he was staying, the Iranian Revolutionary Guards said in a statement, according to international news agencies. One of his bodyguards was also killed in the attack. Hamas called it "a cowardly act that will not go unpunished".

Reformist Massoud Pezeshkian has been elected Iran's new president, beating his hardline conservative rival Saeed Jalili. The vote was declared in Dr Pezeshkian's favour after he secured 53.3% of the more than 30 million votes counted. Mr Jalili polled 44.3%. The run-off came after no candidate secured a majority in the first round  on 28 June, which saw a historically low voter turnout of 40%. The election was called after Iran’s previous president Ebrahim Raisi was killed in a helicopter crash in May, in which seven others died.  Even before the final results were declared by Iran's interior ministry, Dr Pezeshkian's supporters had taken to the streets in Tehran and a number of other cities to celebrate. Videos posted on social media showed mostly young people dance and wave the signature green flag of his campaign, while passing cars sounded their horns. Dr Pezeshkian, a former heart surgeon, is critical of Iran’s notorious morality police and caused a stir after promising “unity and cohesion”, as well as an end to Iran's “isolation” from the world.

Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi was killed in a helicopter crash on Sunday night at the age of 63. This was reported by Iranian state television. After a multi-hour search, the helicopter wreckage was found near the village of Tavil in Iran's East Azerbaijan province, a mountainous area where there was bad weather at the time of the crash. A period of five days of mourning has been declared in Iran, during which time the country's vice president has been appointed interim president.

The US has observed Iran moving military equipment, including drones and cruise missiles, around the country, signalling that it may be preparing to attack Israeli targets from within its own territory, two intelligence officials told CNN reporters. However, it is not clear whether Iran is preparing to strike from its soil as part of an initial attack, or whether it is posturing to try to deter Israel or the US from a possible counterstrike on its territory.  One of the intelligence officials said the US had observed Iran preparing as many as 100 cruise missiles.