South Caucasus

Following the parliamentary elections of October 2024, the ruling Georgian Dream party created favourable conditions for the growth of Russian influence in the region according to the annual report of the US Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) that has just been presented to the US Congress. The report says Moscow is almost certainly seeking to bring Georgia back into its sphere of influence and has already made progress through internal political developments in the country.

Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan told the Yerevan Dialogue that “sustainable and lasting peace between Armenia and Azerbaijan is not only possible, but within reach” as he delivered an update on the current status of peace talks to participants of the 2nd annual forum on Monday. Negotiations over a draft agreement were completed in March, and Armenia and Azerbaijan indicated their willingness to sign it.

The 6th round of the Security Dialogue between the European Union and Azerbaijan was held in Brussels, the Azerbaijani Ambassador to Belgium and Luxembourg, Head of the Delegation to the EU Vaqif Sadiqov wrote on his page on X.  The meeting was co-chaired by Hikmet Hajiyev, the Assistant of the President of Azerbaijan & Head of the Foreign Policy Department of the Presidential Administration and Olof Skoog, the Deputy Secretary General of the European External Action Service. 

The leaders of Armenia and Azerbaijan met in the Albanian capital, Tirana, on the sidelines of the sixth European Political Community Summit that brought together leaders of 47 countries. The two sides discussed the current situation and underlined the importance of continuing efforts toward signing a peace agreement. No details of the meeting held on 16 May have been disclosed but published photographs and video footage show Armenia Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and Azerbaijan President Ilham Aliyev informally across a coffee table.

Khalaf Khalafov, the Azerbaijani President's Representative on Special Assignments, has held a number of meetings in Astana, the capital of Kazakhstan. As part of the trip, Khalafov met with Murat Nurtleu, Deputy Prime Minister of Kazakhstan & Minister of Foreign Affairs, and Erzhan Kazykhan, Assistant to the President of the Republic of Kazakhstan for External Affairs.

On April 25, the EU’s High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, Kaja Kallas paid a visit to Azerbaijan. This was the first visit of the EU’s top diplomat to Baku in the past nine years. Both sides gave positive messages during the visit about the existing situation in bilateral relations and future prospects. President Ilham Aliyev reaffirmed Azerbaijan’s position as a dependable EU partner, drawing attention to the Southern Gas Corridor’s steady supply of natural gas to Europe over the past four years. Currently, ten European nations – eight of them EU members – receive Azerbaijani gas, positioning Baku as a major contributor to the continent’s energy security. Aliyev also pointed to effective collaboration under the Southern Gas Corridor Advisory Council and noted promising opportunities in renewable energy. Azerbaijan’s involvement in advancing the Trans-Caspian Energy Corridor and joint Black Sea energy projects with countries like Georgia, Romania, Hungary, and Bulgaria was also underscored.

The South Caucasus remains one of the world's most landmine-affected regions, littered with landmines and unexploded ordnance (UXO). Although Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia each face this challenge in their own way, none has fully overcome it. For the three countries of the South Caucasus, winning this battle requires a holistic regional approach, something which has so far eluded them because of political circumstances and historical tensions. From October 2018 to March 2024, LINKS Europe Foundation, with the support of the European Union (EU), led the regional campaign ‘Landmine Free South Caucasus’, prioritising awareness raising and regional cooperation. The campaign was delivered in Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia with the participation of demining agencies, official bodies and civil society organisations. Active simultaneously in all three countries and communicated in five languages, the campaign reached thousands of people and mobilised policymakers and opinion-shapers across the region.

Irakli Kobakhidze has once again become the chairman of Georgian Dream, the party founded by oligarch Bidzina Ivanishvili in 2012 which has since been in power in Georgia. Ivanishvili is the party’s honorary chairman and is widely seen as the country’s shadow ruler. Kobakhidze is also the current prime minister of Georgia and had previously served as party chairman until February 2024. At that time, a political reshuffle took place with then Prime Minister Irakli Garibashvili becoming party chairman, while Kobakhidze was nominated for the prime minister’s post.