Russia

Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan said Armenia wanted to become a member of the European Union within twenty years and will commit to an ambitous reform programme to meet the criteria of EU accession. In a press conference on 16 July, Pashinyan referred to his recent visit in Brussels and said the law adopted by the Armenian parliament meant the country seeks to join the EU. He acknowledged that this was not a simple process and all EU member states needed to agree to Armenia’s membership. He emphasised that regardless of whether Armenia ultimately joins the EU, the country will continue its ambitious reform programme.

US President Donald Trump on Monday threatened Russia with steep tariffs unless a peace deal is reached within 50 days and announced a rejuvenated pipeline for American weapons to reach Ukraine, hardening his stance toward Moscow after months of frustration about unsuccessful negotiations for ending the war. The latest steps reflect an evolving approach from the Republican president, who promised to swiftly resolve the war started by Russian President Vladimir Putin when he invaded Ukraine three years ago. In the past, Trump focused his criticism on Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, whom he described as unwilling to compromise, but more recently has expressed growing irritation towards Putin. In addition, Trump said European allies would buy “billions and billions” of dollars of U.S. military equipment to be transferred to Ukraine, replenishing the besieged country’s supplies of weapons. He made the announcement in the Oval Office alongside NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte.

Depending on whom you ask, last week’s meeting between Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev in Abu Dhabi was either a historic development or simply another routine step in the still-fragile peace process. In an interview with Slovak media prior to the talks last week, Azerbaijani presidential advisor Hikmet Hajiyev even claimed the conflict between the sides is now over. Both sides believed that they were now the closest to formalising a peace treaty than at any time before.

The war in Ukraine, following Russia’s unprovoked invasion in February 2022, has now raged on for three and a half years. Thousands of Ukrainians, military and civilian, have died, and millions of Ukrainians have been displaced. Vladimir Putin brought this calamity on the Ukrainian people, and on his nation too, for political capriciousness and naked ambition. Leaders of European countries understood the seriousness and significance of the moment, not only those near Russia, such as Poland, the Baltic States, Finland and Sweden, but in wider Europe too, including Germany, France, the UK, the Netherlands and beyond. Yet whilst the leaders rose to the occasion, the European public has remained largely indifferent. The majority of Europeans have so far acquiesced to the decision of their leaders to pour billions of euros into the Ukrainian war effort, but the conflict remains distant, and most Europeans carry on with their lives as usual. Putin is perceived more as an oddity than a threat. There is a great risk in this. The European Union High Representative for Foreign and Security Policy, and former Estonian politician, Kaja Kallas, is quoted as saying “Ukraine fights today so that we may not have to fight tomorrow. Their fight is our fight.” True! But that is not the full story.

According to various Ukrainian media reports, several Ukrainian cities were hit on the night of Tuesday 8 July into Wednesday 9 July by the heaviest Russian missile and drone attack since the large-scale invasion in February 2022. The capital, Kyiv, was among the cities that came under heavy fire, according to Kyiv Independent journalists who were on the scene.

On Thursday (3 July), Russia formally recognised the Taliban government in Afghanistan by accepting credentials from its new ambassador, Gul Hassan Hassan. In April, Russia removed the Taliban from its list of terrorist organisations. On Thursday, the Russian Foreign Ministry welcomed this decision, stating that diplomatic ties would promote "productive bilateral cooperation" in areas such as trade, energy, transport, agriculture, and security. Afghanistan’s foreign minister, Amir Khan Muttaqi, welcomed Russia’s move, calling it 'historic' and expressing hope that other countries would follow suit. This reflects the Taliban's growing efforts to gain international legitimacy since seizing power in August 2021 following the US withdrawal from the country.

The Russian president and his French counterpart Emmanuel Macron  have spoken on the phone for the first time in years. Their last conversation took place in September 2022, more than six months after Russia's invasion of Ukraine.