Ukraine and Eastern Europe

When Volodymyr Zelensky ran for office to become president of Ukraine in 2019, many did not take him seriously. Here was a person who had become famous as an actor, playing the role of an imaginary president in a television soap opera, wanting to get the real thing. In 2021/22, he, on his part, did not take seriously warnings about an imminent Russian invasion. He thought he could negotiate with Putin the future of Ukraine. He did not understand the contempt that Putin had for him, and indeed for the entire Ukrainian nation. The invasion marked the birth of a new Zelensky, and a new Ukraine. As Russian troops approached Kyiv, Zelensky, although he knew that he was a primary target that the Russians wanted to eliminate, refused offers to be evacuated, and said that he would stay on and resist. Most Ukrainians said the same. Ukraine is emerging from the war bruised but strong. In the war, the country has found itself. It has the potential and the self-confidence necessary to succeed. The war has enabled Ukraine to emerge from the shadow of Russia. Untangible as this concept is, it is the key issue that will define the country’s future. And Zelensky? Not by his own choice Zelensky ended up being a wartime leader. He did that very well. It is likely that when the war ends the Ukrainian people will want to move on to another leader that will be able to lead Ukraine in peace. But Volodymyr Zelensky has already earned a place in the history of Ukraine, and of Europe.  

The European Union on Thursday 23 October applied more economic sanctions on Russia, adding to U.S. President Donald Trump’s new punitive measures the previous day against the Russian oil industry. However, EU leaders meeting in Brussels have so far failed to reach a deal on using Russian frozen assets. European capitals were hoping to convince Belgium, which houses the international deposit organisation Euroclear and is worried about legal repercussions, that a reparation loan from the funds is workable. Most of the €200 billion in Russian central bank assets frozen by the EU are held in Euroclear. However, Belgian Prime Minister Bart De Wever has so far been skeptical, reiterating during the European Council meeting on Thursday that certain conditions must first be met before a €140 billion loan can be given to Ukraine using Russia’s frozen assets. Russian officials and state media dismissed the new Western measures, saying they are largely ineffective.

U.S. President  Donald Trump said that the Donbas region in the east of Ukraine should be “cut up,” leaving most of it in Russian hands, to end a  war that has dragged on for nearly four years. Trump has edged back in the direction of pressing Ukraine to give up on retaking land it has lost to Russia, in exchange for an end to the war. Following a phone call last week, the Russian and US leaders Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump announced they would meet in Budapest for talks on resolving the war in Ukraine, triggered by Moscow's all-out offensive in February 2022. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and US counterpart Marco Rubio spoke on Monday 20 October to discuss preparations for the summit, and are expected to meet in person to finalise details. However, the Kremlin stated on Tuesday 21 October that there was "no precise time frame" for the summit even though Trump stated that the meeting with Putin could take place within two weeks.

US President Donald Trump has announced his intention to meet with his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin, in Budapest, in an attempt to end the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. He did not specify when the meeting will take place. Trump added that he would also meet Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in the Oval Office on Friday 17 October to discuss his phone conversation with Putin.

Early on Friday morning (10 October), at least nine people were injured in Kyiv after a massive bombardment with drones and missiles by the Russian army. Authorities are warning the population that repeated attacks may follow.

The pro-European party of Moldovan President Maia Sandu has won a new majority in parliament in elections seen as critical for her country's future path to the EU. Sandu had warned of "massive Russian interference" after voting, saying the future of her country, flanked by Ukraine and Romania, was at stake. Igor Grosu, the leader of Sandu's Party of Action and Solidarity (PAS), said it had been "an extraordinarily difficult battle" and that Russia had thrown "everything it had" at the election. PAS secured 50% of the vote, with 99.9% of the 1.6m votes counted, far ahead of the pro-Russian Patriotic Electoral Bloc on under 25%. Turnout was 52%, higher than in recent years. One of the main opposition leaders, Igor Dodon, had claimed victory even before results came in and called for protests outside parliament on Monday. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen welcomed the result. "You made your choice clear: Europe. Democracy. Freedom," she wrote on X. Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk praised Sandu, saying she had "saved democracy" and "stopped Russia in its attempts to take control over the whole region. A good lesson for us all". Recent Moldovan votes have been far closer, but soon after polls closed it became clear that Sandu's party was on course for another majority in the 101-seat parliament. Four years ago, the president's party won 52.8% of the vote, and based on latest results it is now set to clinch 55 seats. To form a government it will not need to rely on support from other parties, such as the Alternativa bloc or the populist Our Party.

Moldova is voting in crucial parliamentary elections that will determine the country's future. Sunday's general election will be the most crucial since Moldova gained independence from the Soviet Union in 1991. Russia is doing all it can to divert the country from its European course. If a flood of videos on TikTok is to be believed, the people of Moldova are currently living through a reign of terror. These short videos claim that the country is being governed by a "dictatorship" of its pro-European President, Maia Sandu, and the ruling liberal-conservative Action and Solidarity Party (PAS). They also allege that this "puppet regime" has sold itself to the EU and NATO and US billionaire George Soros with a view to destroying Moldova's agriculture, "introducing LGBTQ ideology" and leading the country into a war against the Russian Federation. One of the people who posts such things on TikTok almost daily is former President Igor Dodon, a devoted follower of Russian President Vladimir Putin. Dodon is leader of the Party of Socialists of the Republic of Moldova (PSRM) and head of the Patriotic Electoral Bloc alliance. The logo of the alliance features a red-and-white star surrounding a heart with the Soviet hammer and sickle at its center. Dodon describes himself as right-wing and committed to "traditional values," closing his videos with the Orthodox Christian salutation "God help us!" This blend of hatred of Europe and the West, Soviet nostalgia, loyalty to the Kremlin, Orthodox Christian piety and right-wing populism appeals to a large part of Moldovan society, particularly in view of the precarious economic situation of many people in the country, especially pensioners. On Sunday, Moldovans go to the polls to elect a new parliament. This will be the first scheduled general election since Moldova and Ukraine were granted candidate status by the EU in 20 For months now, the poll has been seen as a pivotal election and one that could take the country either further along the road to the EU or back to Russia. Opinion polls in the country are considered notoriously unreliable. The unpredictability of the vote is further compounded by the fact that almost half of all voters have still not made up their mind who they are going to vote for. Even though Sandu's liberal-conservative, pro-European, anti-corruption civil rights party PAS is expected to remain the strongest party, it might lose the absolute majority it got in 2021. Two other electoral alliances that opinion polls indicate will be represented in the new parliament are both clearly pro-Russian. These are the Patriotic Electoral Bloc and the political alliance known as Alternative, which was founded by Mayor of Chisinau, Ion Ceban. Our Party (PN) is another party that could enter parliament. It was founded by businessman Renato Usatii, a political adventurer and populist who made his fortune in Russia and is hard to pin down politically. Usatii could end up holding the balance of power and determining whether the country keeps its pro-European government or gets a pro-Russian one.

Russia attacked the Ukrainian capital on Sunday morning (7 September)  hitting the building of the Cabinet of Ministers. There are a number of civilian casualties Ukraine’s Prime Minister Yulia Svyrydenco has officially confirmed that the Cabinet building in Kyiv was damaged in the Russian attack early this morning - the first time the building has been hit. The BBC, citing the Ukrainian air force, said that a record number of drones and missiles were launched by Russia in the latest nightly attack. Ukraine's air force says Russia launched 805 drones and 13 missiles in its overnight attack. Of those, 751 were shot down, the air force says. Prime Minister Yulia Svyrydenco wrote on social media: "The enemy terrorizes our people across the country every day"  The BBC says it is very rare for Russian missiles and drones to hit right in the city centre like this, because of the concentration of air defence in the area. This time, it seems they were overwhelmed.