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Opinion: The future of the China-US-Russia triangle after Pelosi's visit to Taiwan

Opinion: The future of the China-US-Russia triangle after Pelosi's visit to Taiwan

Since February 24, 2022, the international community's focus was concentrated entirely on the war in Ukraine and the growing Russia – West confrontation. It seemed that nothing could change the situation until the end of hostilities in Ukraine. However, on August 2 and 3, almost everyone’s attention shifted from Ukraine to Taiwan. As the Speaker of the US House of Representatives, Nancy Pelosi, stated her intention to visit Taiwan, up to half a million people were watching the trajectory of her plane on air flight tracking sites. The negative reaction of China, including the warning of President Xi during his conversation with President Biden that those who played with fire would be perished by it, created hype around this visit. Many were discussing the possibility of Chinese military jets closing the airspace over Taiwan and preventing Pelosi’s plane from landing in Taiwan, while some enthusiasts were even contemplating the possibility of a US-China direct military clash. As Pelosi landed in Taiwan and met with the Taiwanese President, the global social media was full of amateur assessments about the strategic victory of the US and the confirmation of the US global hegemony. However, as the dust settles down, and information noise and manipulation eventually decreases, a more serious assessment is needed to understand the real consequences of this visit.
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In Tbilisi, Stoltenberg reaffirms NATO support for Georgia's territorial integrity

In Tbilisi, Stoltenberg reaffirms NATO support for Georgia's territorial integrity

NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg continued his tour of the South Caucasus on Monday (18 March 2024), meeting with President Salome Zourabichvili and Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze of Georgia in Tbilisi. “Georgia is one of NATO’s closest partners. We highly appreciate your substantial contributions to NATO missions and operations and we fully support Georgia’s sovereignty and territorial integrity. South Ossetia and Abkhazia are part of Georgia,” Mr Stoltenberg said. He called on Russia to reverse the recognition of Georgian territories South Ossetia and Abkhazia as independent states and added that Russia’s organisation of elections in occupied parts of Georgia and Ukraine is completely illegal. “Russia’s presidential election was clearly neither free nor fair,” Mr Stoltenberg said. The Secretary General welcomed Georgia’s substantial contributions to NATO operations and support to Ukraine. Georgia is hosting thousands of Ukrainian refugees and providing crucial humanitarian and financial aid. “Russia persists in its pursuit of imperial ambitions. And in Ukraine, the situation on the battlefield remains difficult,” he said. “But, with our support, Ukraine has pushed back - destroying or damaging a significant part of Russia’s Black Sea fleet,” allowing Ukraine to re-open grain shipping that is vital for their economy and for global food security. The Secretary General will conclude his three day visit to the South Caucasus in Yerevan on Tuesday, meeting with President Vahagn Khachaturyan and Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan of Armenia. On Sunday and Monday, he met Azerbaijan’s leadership in Baku.
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NATO Secretary General in Baku at the start of South Caucasus tour

NATO Secretary General in Baku at the start of South Caucasus tour

NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg arrived in Baku in Sunday (17 March) at the start of a three-day, tri-nation tour of the South Caucasus. Meeting with President Ilham Aliyev, the Secretary-General welcomed Azerbaijan’s long-standing collaboration with the Alliance, saying he looked forward to further strengthening the partnership. On the situation in the South Caucasus, the Secretary-General underlined that “peace and stability is not only important here but for security more broadly”. He said: “Armenia and Azerbaijan now have an opportunity to achieve an enduring peace after years of conflict.”  He added: “I can just encourage you to seize this opportunity to reach a lasting peace agreement with Armenia”. On Ukraine, Mr Stoltenberg welcomed the much-needed support provided by Azerbaijan, and called on all countries in the region to step up: “more support is needed because the situation in Ukraine is extremely difficult.” The Secretary-General called the upcoming COP29 Global Climate Summit in Azerbaijan an important milestone: “It is important for everyone concerned about climate change but also important for our security because those issues are closely interlinked.”
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Kobakhidze in Baku as Georgia pushes its regional role

Kobakhidze in Baku as Georgia pushes its regional role

The recently appointed prime minister of Georgia, Irakli Kobakhidze, has arrived in Baku for talks with the Azerbaijani leadership. In the few days during which he has been prime minister Kobakhidze has given a lot of importance to relations with the country's two immediate neighbours, Armenia and Azerbaijan, meeting separately with the Ambassadors of the two countries and receiving visiting delegations. Georgia is keen to promote its regional role and to support the process of peace and reconciliation between Armenia and Azerbaijan. This is likely to be one of the topics on Kobakhidze's agenda in Baku. The Georgian prime minister is also expected to visit Armenia next week,
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Opinion
Opinion: Does Russia lose Armenia to France?

Opinion: Does Russia lose Armenia to France?

In an interview with France24 during his February 2024 visit to Paris, Nikol Pashinyan highlighted Azerbaijan's perception of Armenia as "Western Azerbaijan" and expressed concerns about Azerbaijan's preparations for a new war, writes Dr. Anzhela Mnatsakanyan in this op-ed for commonspace.eu. "This interview marked a significant departure as Pashinyan openly scrutinized Russia's policies towards Armenia and hinted at the possibility of a new war. The timing of this interview, a few days before Azerbaijan presented a re-edited version of the so-called "Peace treaty," suggested that the "peace" offered by Azerbaijan is more about the capitulation of Armenia. This interview was a kind of “call for help” from Pashinyan to Western countries on the eve of a possible new war."
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Opinion: German diplomacy on the move in the South Caucasus

Opinion: German diplomacy on the move in the South Caucasus

"The EU cannot afford to overlook the strategic importance of the South Caucasus", writes Simona Scotti in this op-ed for commonspace.eu. "If on the one hand over the past two years significant steps have been undertaken, including the deployment of the EUMA in Armenia and the Brussels track of negotiations led by Charles Michel, on the other hand some more concrete actions, with a well-defined and consistent strategy, would be appreciated. The lack of a clear and coherent vision has destabilized Armenia and Azerbaijan, which have often questioned to which extent they can really trust a Western involvement in the region."