Türkiye and the Levant

The visit of the Syrian leader, Ahmed al Sharaa to Baku on 12 July was short but highly significant. The discussions between al Sharaa and president Ilham Aliyev of Azerbaijan were substantive and covered a number of areas, including Syria's complicated relationship with Israel, and Syria's energy crises. Talks between Syria and the Azerbaijani oil and gas company SOCAR have been on-going to for several months, and during al Sharaa's visit a Memorandum of Understanding was signed, formalising the relationship. Azerbaijan is reported to be going to supply Syria with gas via Turkiye. During the discussions the possibility of using the facilities of the Turkish State energy company, Botas, was also discussed, and the plan is to use the newly constructed Kilis-Azaz-al Bab-Aleppo pipeline. According to various Syrian, Israeli and Azerbaijani sources a meeting also took place in Baku on 12 July between Syrian and Israeli officials regarding possible normalisation of relations

According to the news channel Al Jazeera and the Palestinian news agency Wafa, at least ten Palestinians who were desperately seeking aid from a controversial and heavily criticised United States–backed organisation have been killed by Israeli forces in Gaza over the last 48 hours, according to the besieged enclave’s Government Media Office.

The Nato Summit held in The Hague on 24-25 June was a failure, wrapped in success. It was a success because it avoided public display of divisions, mainly by avoiding issues: it was the shortest summit anyone can remember; it also had a very short final statement that basically had two points, the first a re-commitment to article 5 of the North Atlantic Charter and the principle that an attack on one will be considered an attack on all. The fact that Nato leaders in the Hague had felt the need to re-emphasise this should be a cause of worry not celebration, but in the end, it is good that it was said. The second outcome, the one that received most attention, was the commitment of European countries to spend more on their defence: 5 per cent of GDP, of which 3.5 per cent on hard defence, and 1.5 per cent on related ancillary areas such as infrastructure. You may, if you want, believe that this was a response to US President Donald Trump's insistence. Or, if you are more prudent, understand that countries that matter – Germany, France, Poland and the Scandinavian countries had decided on this course of action quite separately, and as a response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which was a wake-up call. Finland and Sweden’s decision to abandon their neutrality, and join NATO was taken long before Trump returned to the White House. The EU’s decision to spend massively on defence was always to ensure that other European countries are part of this process, willy-nilly.

Hours after US President Donald Trump said his ceasefire had taken effect, Israel said it intercepted two Iranian missiles, with Defence Minister Israel Katz vowing that the military would "respond forcefully". Israel had stated on Tuesday it agreed to Trump's declaration of a ceasefire with Iran, adding that it had achieved all its objectives in the 12-day war with its arch-enemy. According to AFP, Iran denied launching missiles at Israel after the ceasefire announcement, and said it had "compelled" Israel to "unilaterally halt its aggression", while stopping short of officially accepting the ceasefire plan.

Pashinyan's official visit to Türkiye on June 20, 2025, marks a strategic shift from symbolic reconciliation to strategic rapprochement. Normalisation, for Yerevan, is not an end in itself but a transformative initiative to put an end to Armenia's geopolitical isolation, to diversify its transit routes, to decrease its reliance on Russia and to get access to Turkish ports, measures that reorient Armenia economically and logistically toward the West. Türkiye, on its part, is seizing the moment to strengthen its role as a regional intermediary. Consequently, by promoting normalisation, Ankara solidifies its impact in the South Caucasus and sends a positive signal to Western partners: the EU and U.S., in particular, about its evolving role in the region's stabilisation.