Monday Commentary

The Catholic Church has a new leader. Robert Prevost was not discussed by the media before being announced as the new Pope on Friday. He will follow the Church’s mantra, that has served it well over two thousand years, to be as flexible as necessary and as rigid as possible Europe has fresh energy in the person of the new German chancellor, Friedrich Merz. Despite the wobbly start in the German Parliament, Merz in the four days after his swearing-in met key European leaders, and laid the basis for his Chancellorship. Meanwhile, Donald Trump statements continue to hanker for the past. His call for the re-opening of the prison on Alcatraz is a case in point. Trump marks the end of the “American era”. The US will remain a rich and powerful country, but its global role will be much diminished.

Many of us have watched with incredulity as US President Donald Trump sailed through his first one hundred days in office. Domestically, the period has been characterised by the biggest shake-up of the American Government in history based on an old Trumpian maxim, that Washington was a “swamp”, and one suspects also a wish to settle scores with an establishment that in the past had not hesitated in challenging the Trumpian reading of America and the world. On the international level, Trump focused in his first hundred days on Ukraine and tariffs. Certainly, there were plenty of other statements to fill the world headlines: Greenland, Panama Canal, Canada becoming the US 51st state, renaming the Gulf of Mexico, to name a few.

The Sahel region stretches from the Atlantic Ocean to the Red Sea and consists, according to the UN, of ten countries which sit, wholly or partly, within it: Senegal,  Gambia, Mauritania, Guinea, Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger, Chad, Cameroon and Nigeria Other neighbouring countries however, such as Benin, Togo Sudan and Central African Republic, due to their proximity, and to the fact that they increasingly share the same problems, are often included when the Sahel is discussed.

The new Syrian leader, Ahmed al-Sharaa, made an important appearance on the world stage in the last days, visiting Türkiye and the United Arab Emirates. This was not al Sharaa’s first international outing since overthrowing the Baathist regime, led by Bashir al-Assad, in December. In February he visited Saudi Arabia and made short stops in Türkiye and Egypt. But this time round the visits appeared better prepared. In Türkiye, al Sharaa participated in the Antalya Diplomacy Forum where he met some of the world leaders and delegations present. He also met with Turkiye’s President, Recip Tayib Erdogan. From Antalya, al-Sharaa flew to Abu Dhabi for meetings with the UAE President, Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed, and other Emirati officials.

On Wednesday (9 April) a new coalition government was announced in Germany bringing back a CDU chancellor working with the centre-left SPD as junior partners. It is an arrangement that Germans are familiar with. Many post-war German governments were similarly constituted, and the German people are comfortable with this arrangement. It buries the prospect of the far-right Alternative fur Deutschland  (AfD), which came second in recent elections, having a role in government. The 146 pages coalition agreement was hammered out in a relatively short time, with those negotiating fully aware of the urgency of giving the country a stable government at a time of global uncertainty and serious domestic challenges. “Germany is back on track” announced the Chancellor-designate, Friedrich Merz, who is expected to take office in early May. Europeans should be happy. A strong Germany is the backbone of Europe, and the new coalition is the best guarantee of that.

Last week, LINKS Europe organised a major conference in the Hague with the theme, “The South Caucasus, again in transition”. The event brought together experts, policy practitioners, and political voices from Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia to discuss the regional dynamics in the South Caucasus and the role of the European Union and Türkiye in the region.

The civil war in Yemen has been going on for ten years, and the world has pretended not to notice. It is only when the conflict spills over to neighbouring countries and regions that we see a flurry of activity, usually of the wrong kind. This was the case when targets in UAE and Saudi Arabia came under attack, or more recently when shipping in the Red Sea was targeted by Yemen’s current ruling group, the Houthis.

The Defence White Paper, published in Brussels on 19 March by the European Commission and the EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, entitled “Joint White Paper for European Defence Readiness 2030” was a welcome, major contribution, to the debate on European Defence and Security. Unlike similar epistles coming out of Brussels, who one often wonders are written for whom, and by whom, the Defence White Paper is informative, candid and containing well-argued steps going forward. It gives the reader a good sense of the urgency of the situation and sets out clearly a set of steps aimed at addressing the urgency in a timely manner.

The news, released simultaneously in Baku and Yerevan, that Armenia and Azerbaijan had successfully concluded negotiations on a peace agreement is very welcome. Negotiations had been going on for a long time, sometimes in person and sometimes by email, sometimes with the participation of third-party mediators, but most of the time bilaterally without third parties. Armenia and Azerbaijan should be congratulated. The EU, US, Russia and France were amongst the first to praise the sides for their success.