Conflict and Peace

Today (10 October), the Norwegian Nobel Committee awarded Venezuelan opposition leader Maria Corina Machado for the Nobel Peace Prize. In the speech, the Norwegian Nobel Committee said that “she won for her struggle to achieve a just and peaceful transition from dictatorship to democracy”. Machado was among 338 nominees for the Nobel Peace Prize and has become its 20th female laureate.

Early on Friday morning (10 October), at least nine people were injured in Kyiv after a massive bombardment with drones and missiles by the Russian army. Authorities are warning the population that repeated attacks may follow.

Israel and Hamas agreed to pause fighting in Gaza to free the remaining hostages in exchange for Palestinian prisoners, accepting elements of a plan put forward by the Trump administration that Palestinians greeted reluctantly on Thursday 9 October as a possible breakthrough toward ending the devastating two-year-old war. Under the terms, Hamas intends to release all 20 living hostages in a matter of days, while the Israeli military will begin a withdrawal from the majority of Gaza, people familiar with the matter told The Associated Press on condition of anonymity to discuss details of an agreement that has not fully been made public.

Thousands of people converged on southern Israel on Tuesday 7 October to mourn the dead as the nation marked two years since the attack of two years ago that plunged the region into a devastating war, while Israel and Hamas hold indirect talks in Egypt. The negotiations between the two sides being held in the resort town of Sharm El-Sheikh have been "positive" so far, two sources close to the Palestinian militants' negotiating team told AFP, with discussions set to resume later on Tuesday. Mediators were shuttling between Israeli and Hamas delegations under tight security. Egyptian Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty told reporters in Cairo, negotiations were underway for a "first phase" of the agreement, adding the discussions were focused on creating "the climate on the ground to complete the step of releasing the hostages". Trump has urged negotiators to "move fast" to end the war in Gaza, where Israeli strikes continued on Monday. Trump told Newsmax TV that "I think we're very, very close to having a deal... I think there's a lot of goodwill being shown now. It's pretty amazing actually".

The 20-point American plan for Gaza seeks to take Hamas out of the Gaza equation. This is necessary but not easy. Hamas has become part of the Gaza fabric. It will reinvent itself as many Islamist movements have done elsewhere. But its leaders must go, after they released all the hostages they still kept from the 7 October attack. Then the process of building a new Gaza must start: infrastructure, institutions, and more importantly, the spirit and soul of the Palestinian people. Israel's plans for the annexation of Gaza are out, as is the talk of resettling Palestinians elsewhere. Gaza is, and will remain, Palestine. One can see that rebuilding the infrastructure will happen quickly. Establishing security can also happen if countries contribute forces, and if the international force has a clear mandate. Institutions will take longer, and much will depend on what is happening in the wider Palestinian spectrum, and Israel’s readiness to honour its part of the deal. It is unlikely that Hamas will hand power to anyone but the Palestinian Authority, and this is one of the points that will have to be negotiated. Rebuilding the Palestinian spirit will take years, and healing the trauma of the last two years will be difficult, will take time, but is doable. The American plan has some interesting ideas, but the US must be ready to work with diverse partners, especially in the Middle East, the Muslim world, and Europe. The plan misses one vital point. It does not commit to a two-state solution. Apparently, the Israelis opposed this. The plan, in article 19, says: “While Gaza re-development advances, and when the PA (Palestinian Authority) reform program is faithfully carried out, the conditions may finally be in place for a credible pathway to Palestinian self-determination and statehood, which we recognise as the aspiration of the Palestinian people”. Not good enough! But for the moment the world, and more importantly the Palestinian people, must accept the American plan, and make the most of it.

“Welcome to Armenia,” the pilot’s voice came over the tannoy as the Turkish Atlasjet flight touched down in Yerevan some time in 2011. “The temperature outsider is…” A normal announcement on any flight. This one, however, came in Turkish before being repeated in English. In Armenia. That was 14 years ago now. Despite the lack of diplomatic relations between the two countries, the flights have existed for years albeit with some interruptions and later operated by Pegasus and Flyone.

Israel’s defense minister on Wednesday 1 October ordered all remaining Palestinians to leave Gaza City, saying it was their “last opportunity” and that anyone who stayed would be considered a terrorist or militant supporter and face the “full force” of Israel’s latest offensive. At least 21 Palestinians were killed across the territory, according to local hospitals, as Hamas weighed a new proposal form US President Donald Trump  aimed at ending the war and returning the remaining captives taken in Hamas’ Oct. 7, 2023, attack that triggered it. A senior Hamas official told AP that there are some points in the proposal that are unacceptable and must be amended, without elaborating. He said the official response will only come after consultations with other Palestinian factions.