Horn of Africa

Ethiopia last week opened its mega dam on the River Nile, the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD). The launch has sparked a tense diplomatic battle between Ethiopia and Egypt, with Cairo denouncing it as “an unlawful unilateral act” and protesting to the United Nations Security Council. During an inauguration ceremony on Tuesday (9 September) Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed described the US$5 billion Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam as a “symbol of Ethiopian unity and national achievement". Several regional leaders, including Kenyan President William Ruto and Somalia’s President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, attended the event. Egypt, whose life has historically centred around the River Nile, believes the dam will threaten its water supply and cause shortages. Following the inauguration, Cairo warned that it reserved the right to take all measures provided for under international law and the UN Charter to “defend the existential interests of its people”. Sudan, has also raised concerns about dam safety and the risk of uncoordinated water releases.

Women displaced by ethnic violence in Tambura, Western Equatoria, continue to live under a cloud of uncertainty, reports Africa News. Since conflict erupted there in 2021 between rival community-based armed groups, thousands of civilians, particularly mothers and widows, have been forced into makeshift camps, where basic safety, access to food and services, and hope for the future remain elusive.

Beijing’s special envoy for the Horn of Africa, Xue Bing, told a regional conference attended by eight governments from the region that ‘all parties should engage in dialogue’ to achieve common prosperity. In the meeting China reaffirmed its support for peaceful development in the Horn of Africa, saying it would “actively engage” in regional initiatives to promote the concept. But analysts and observers are very skeptical. Whilst China might dabble with the region and its many problems, it ability to impact the situation, and particularly contribute to resolving the conflicts that plague the region is minimal. In his speech at the Kampala Conference, Xue said Beijing would offer military assistance and training, as well as helping to develop the region’s infrastructure and boosting trade. “The world today faces overlapping risks and challenges that threaten peace and development in the Horn of Africa, and all parties should engage in dialogue and cooperation to maintain universal security and achieve common prosperity,” Xue told the event, according to the Chinese foreign ministry. Xue outlined further areas of cooperation, including counterterrorism and landmine eradication, while stressing China’s support for “African-led solutions” through platforms such as the African Union and the Intergovernmental Authority on Development.

On Friday (4 July), Eurasia Review reported that Yemen’s Houthi rebels were supplying drones to Somali militant groups, raising security concerns across the Horn of Africa. Despite having different religious affiliations — Somali militant groups primarily advocate for Sunni Islamist ideology, while the Houthis back Shiism — the two groups began cooperating to expand ammunition and weaponry supply routes.

On Wednesday (25 June), the Iranian parliament approved a bill to suspend cooperation with the IAEA, the UN's nuclear watchdog. This was reported by the Iran International news network. However, the proposal must also be approved by the Iranian National Security Council and Iran's Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Khamenei, before it can take effect.