Geostrategic Europe

"Vance’s visit did more than consolidate a peace process – it began rewiring the South Caucasus through energy, AI, and infrastructure. The region’s future alignment may well be determined less by traditional security blocs and more by who controls the region’s transport routes, builds its reactors, powers its data centers, and lays its fiber-optic cables", writes Vasif Husseynov, in this op-ed for commonspace.eu Vance’s February 9–11 visit to Armenia and Azerbaijan marked a structural turning point in the South Caucasus. Unlike previous high-level engagements of the United States that generated rhetorical alignment but limited follow-through, this visit embedded the region into long-term American economic, technological, and strategic frameworks. Taking place on the heels of the latest agreement (January 14) between Washington and Yerevan on the implementation framework for the Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity (TRIPP), the visit served to consolidate the American influence in the region and taking it to higher levels. The consequences are unfolding along two axes: domestically, within Armenia and Azerbaijan’s political economies; and geopolitically, in the region’s recalibrating balance between the United States and Russia, with Georgia seeking entry into the new configuration. (click the image to read the op-ed in full).

They say that a week is a long time in politics, and the time since the European Political Community (EPC) was established in October 2022, may now seem like an eternity. The war in Ukraine, that triggered the establishment of the EPC, drags on, and continues to define Europe. Everything else has changed. When the EPC was established, many yawned, and saw it as yet another useless talking shop. But the idea of creating a framework that brings the 27 EU member states with other European countries – 20 at the last meeting – has increasing value. The attendance of the leaders of these 20 countries: Turkiye’s Erdogan, Ukraine’s Zelensky, UK’s Starmer, and others, has made its twice yearly meetings an important occasion. It is in one area: defence and security, where the biggest need of Europe currently is, and where the biggest potential of the EPC lays. The war in Ukraine, Russia’s malign intentions, and Trump’s reset of US foreign and security policy, focused minds. Europe had been sleeping! When it woke up it did what the EU does whenever it is faced with a problem, it threw money at it, and started a defence spending spree, that was overdue, but is not by itself enough. The EU27 may be a global economic force, but on their own they lack strategic clout. But if you add with them the other European countries such as Turkiye, UK, Ukraine, and even smaller ones such as Norway and Switzerland, it becomes a completely different preposition. Under the surface, these discussions are going on even more intensively. But the European Political Community offers a space for conversations – public and private between the leaders of wider Europe. The value of the Community is therefore significant. The next EPC summit will be in Armenia on 4 May 2026. It will be important for a number of reasons: It will be a summit that should contribute to Armenia-Azerbaijan peace; it is not clear at what level will Azerbaijan participate, but for sure this will be a high level delegation. It will be the first EPC summit in Russia’s back yard – Armenia is still a member of the EAEU, and even if only on paper, of CSTO. The summit will take place on the eve of crucial parliamentary elections in Armenia that will determine the fate of the country and the region. But in the background will be the issue of how wider Europe can work together on defence and security. This will take time – probably not less than a decade – but the work has started, and the EPC summit in Armenia will contribute to it. (click the image above to read the full Monday Commentary).