Elections

The year 2025 has ended up being a momentous year for the South Caucasus, writes Dennis Sammut in his Monday Commentary. Armenia-Azerbaijan relations have been redefined, with consequences for the whole region and beyond. That huge development overshadowed key moments in the domestic trajectory of the two countries, which however have deep consequences for the two countries, and even beyond. It has also been a tumultuous year for Georgia too. The country has been gripped in a political crisis throughout 2025, with no obvious end in sight. Whatever the domestic arguments, on the international stage Georgia is today a shadow of what it used to be until recently. It not only has lost the chance of joining the European Union any time soon, but it has also lost its position as the leading South Caucasus country. Today, in the new reality of the region, it lags as a tired third. Important as 2025 was, it ended with a lot of unfinished business. So 2026 will also be crucial for the three countries. Since regaining its statehood in 1991 after the dissolution of the Soviet Union, Armenia-Azerbaijan relations have been defined by war. The two fought open wars, wars of attrition, and propaganda wars, incessantly. Tens of thousands of people lost their lives, and hundreds of thousands were displaced. Many had lost hope that the two could try the alternative – i.e. peaceful co-existence. Yet in 2025 they were proven wrong.

The Netherlands is set to elect its youngest ever prime minister after the far-right party of Geert Wilders was projected to suffer losses in an election he brought about by bringing down the government. Rob Jetten, the 38-year-old leader of the pro-European centrist D66 party, is on course to claim the top job with most votes counted. His party is projected to win 27 of the 150 seats in the country's lower house of parliament, beating Mr Wilder's Freedom Party on 25, according to an exit poll by Ipsos. It comes just two years after he led his party to victory in the last election, winning 37 seats, although his coalition partners refused to endorse him as prime minister. Mr Jetten will also need to rely on a coalition himself, with 76 seats needed for a majority. At least four parties will be required for him to get there.

Tensions are mounting in Armenia ahead of next year’s parliamentary elections, with the nation’s future hanging in the balance. Despite the excitement surrounding the Trump-brokered Washington Declaration in August, it is unclear whether it can overcome the lingering division that set in after defeat by Azerbaijan in the 44-day war. Recent surveys have shown a slight majority against the proposed TRIPP.

Candidates of the ruling Georgian Dream party have won local elections held on 4 October in all five self-governing cities namely Tbilisi, Rustavi, Kutaisi, Batumi, and Poti based on preliminary results released by the Central Election Commission. The results appear to consolidate the ruling party’s control over Georgia’s largest municipalities amid a backdrop of political tension and opposition boycotts of the local elections.

The pro-European party of Moldovan President Maia Sandu has won a new majority in parliament in elections seen as critical for her country's future path to the EU. Sandu had warned of "massive Russian interference" after voting, saying the future of her country, flanked by Ukraine and Romania, was at stake. Igor Grosu, the leader of Sandu's Party of Action and Solidarity (PAS), said it had been "an extraordinarily difficult battle" and that Russia had thrown "everything it had" at the election. PAS secured 50% of the vote, with 99.9% of the 1.6m votes counted, far ahead of the pro-Russian Patriotic Electoral Bloc on under 25%. Turnout was 52%, higher than in recent years. One of the main opposition leaders, Igor Dodon, had claimed victory even before results came in and called for protests outside parliament on Monday. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen welcomed the result. "You made your choice clear: Europe. Democracy. Freedom," she wrote on X. Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk praised Sandu, saying she had "saved democracy" and "stopped Russia in its attempts to take control over the whole region. A good lesson for us all". Recent Moldovan votes have been far closer, but soon after polls closed it became clear that Sandu's party was on course for another majority in the 101-seat parliament. Four years ago, the president's party won 52.8% of the vote, and based on latest results it is now set to clinch 55 seats. To form a government it will not need to rely on support from other parties, such as the Alternativa bloc or the populist Our Party.

Moldova is voting in crucial parliamentary elections that will determine the country's future. Sunday's general election will be the most crucial since Moldova gained independence from the Soviet Union in 1991. Russia is doing all it can to divert the country from its European course. If a flood of videos on TikTok is to be believed, the people of Moldova are currently living through a reign of terror. These short videos claim that the country is being governed by a "dictatorship" of its pro-European President, Maia Sandu, and the ruling liberal-conservative Action and Solidarity Party (PAS). They also allege that this "puppet regime" has sold itself to the EU and NATO and US billionaire George Soros with a view to destroying Moldova's agriculture, "introducing LGBTQ ideology" and leading the country into a war against the Russian Federation. One of the people who posts such things on TikTok almost daily is former President Igor Dodon, a devoted follower of Russian President Vladimir Putin. Dodon is leader of the Party of Socialists of the Republic of Moldova (PSRM) and head of the Patriotic Electoral Bloc alliance. The logo of the alliance features a red-and-white star surrounding a heart with the Soviet hammer and sickle at its center. Dodon describes himself as right-wing and committed to "traditional values," closing his videos with the Orthodox Christian salutation "God help us!" This blend of hatred of Europe and the West, Soviet nostalgia, loyalty to the Kremlin, Orthodox Christian piety and right-wing populism appeals to a large part of Moldovan society, particularly in view of the precarious economic situation of many people in the country, especially pensioners. On Sunday, Moldovans go to the polls to elect a new parliament. This will be the first scheduled general election since Moldova and Ukraine were granted candidate status by the EU in 20 For months now, the poll has been seen as a pivotal election and one that could take the country either further along the road to the EU or back to Russia. Opinion polls in the country are considered notoriously unreliable. The unpredictability of the vote is further compounded by the fact that almost half of all voters have still not made up their mind who they are going to vote for. Even though Sandu's liberal-conservative, pro-European, anti-corruption civil rights party PAS is expected to remain the strongest party, it might lose the absolute majority it got in 2021. Two other electoral alliances that opinion polls indicate will be represented in the new parliament are both clearly pro-Russian. These are the Patriotic Electoral Bloc and the political alliance known as Alternative, which was founded by Mayor of Chisinau, Ion Ceban. Our Party (PN) is another party that could enter parliament. It was founded by businessman Renato Usatii, a political adventurer and populist who made his fortune in Russia and is hard to pin down politically. Usatii could end up holding the balance of power and determining whether the country keeps its pro-European government or gets a pro-Russian one.