South Caucasus

A fundamental question defines the position of different protagonists over the future of Karabakh, writes commonspace.eu in this commentary. "A lot of the issues in Armenia-Azerbaijan relations can be managed easily with a little bit of imagination and good will. The future of Karabakh remains a real stumbling block." But if Armenia and Azerbaijan fail to reach a peace agreement before the window of opportunity closes and are soon back at the Kremlin's mercy, "they will only have themselves to blame". The world watches on as Armenia and Azerbaijan hug each other and promise peace with each other one day, and exchange threats, insults and gunfire the next. International observers are concerned, bemused, or, very often, bored by this situation. Concerns about the imminent start of a new Armenia-Azerbaijan war are exaggerated. At the moment neither side needs a war, wants it, or even more importantly, can afford it, whether it be politically, financially or socially.

At the moment in Georgia, "on the one hand there is the struggle for power between elements of the government and elements of the opposition. There have been plenty of examples in the past of these elements being willing to sacrifice anything to hold on to this power," writes commonspace.eu in this editorial. "There is also however a parallel struggle, that is based on values and foreign policy orientation [...] The prospect is now emerging that the next political struggle will be about values. The quicker Georgian politicians understand this, the better. And for their own sake, as well as that of their country, they should make sure they position themselves on the right side of history."

Reports from various sources say both Armenia and Azerbaijan are concentrating their troops along the border zone, in an apparent preparation for a potential escalation, writes Vasif Huseynov in this op-ed for commonspace.eu. Despite the optimism following last month's Munich meeting between the leaders of the two countries, the sides have not since taken any tangible step towards the resolution of their ongoing disputes. This despite the fact that recent history of the Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict is a testimony to the fact that an unstable status-quo, with imitations of negotiations, is a ticking bomb, he argues.

The UK Foreign Secretary James Cleverly is on a two-day visit to Moldova and Georgia to announce new funding to "boost regional resilience against Russian malign interference". In a press release from the Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office issued on Thursday (16 March), the UK Government said they will "underline support for territorial integrity and sovereignty as part of work with Russia’s neighbours to deal with the threat on their doorstep.They added that funding will support governance reforms, fair elections, and anti-corruption programmes. First visiting the Moldovan capital of Chisinau on Thursday, Cleverly announced an extra £10 million (€11.4 million) to support economic and governance reforms in Moldova. This new pledge comes on top of £12 million already contributing to military reforms, and anti-corruption and transparency work in the country. Visiting the Georgian capital of Tbilisi one day later, on Friday (17 March), Cleverly announced a £500,000 package aimed at creating an environment for free and fair elections in 2024, protecting them from external interference.

"It is not in the Kremlin’s interest for Armenia and Azerbaijan to normalise relations between them, for lasting peace in the South Caucasus and for the people of Nagorno-Karabakh to prosper in a safe and tolerant environment," writes commonspace.eu in this editorial. "Moscow does not want another big war in the region, but it does not want peace either. However it is now time for this vicious circle to be broken, and the next weeks will tell us if this is possible." They add that "in the end it is going to be up to Mr Ilham Aliyev and Mr Nikol Pashinyan to decide if the time has finally come to break the Russian hold and settle for peace. It is decision time, but doubts linger...There are those who are waiting for Moscow to actively support these efforts, or at least not hinder them. They wait in vain."