South Caucasus

Uncertainty has again emerged along the Armenia-Iran border as the risk of the long-standing conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan turning into further geopolitical competition continues. What was once a post-war localised disagreement over territory and sovereignty is now entangled in a web of regional interests and strategic manoeuvring. Increasingly, peace risks being shaped less by the needs of local populations but more by the calculations of distant capitals. External interference has rather delayed progress almost five years since the 2020 war. If peace is the objective, then the region needs inclusive not selective diplomacy and definitely not new geopolitical fault lines.

A Syrian-Israeli ministerial meeting is taking place on Thursday 31 July in Baku to discuss security matters in southern Syria, a diplomat told AFP. The meeting between Syrian Foreign Minister Asaad al-Shaibani and Israeli Minister of Strategic Affairs Ron Dermer follows a similar meeting between the two ministers in Paris last week. It will take place after an unprecedented visit by al-Shaibani to Moscow on Thursday, added the diplomat, who requested anonymity due to the sensitivity of the matter. Israel and Syria have technically been at war since 1948.

For the first time in 31 years of the Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict, the situation feels more unpredictable than ever. In the past, there was a grim certainty that another war would erupt just as it did in September 2020 while peace, on the other hand, always seemed distant. In recent weeks, comments from U.S. President Donald Trump that it was almost a done deal simply solicited disagreement among analysts and political commentators.  As if that wasn’t confusion enough, and although both Baku and Yerevan have said that the 10 July meeting between the leaders in Abu Dhabi was constructive, another issue has emerged unexpectedly to distract and deflect attention.

Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan said Armenia wanted to become a member of the European Union within twenty years and will commit to an ambitous reform programme to meet the criteria of EU accession. In a press conference on 16 July, Pashinyan referred to his recent visit in Brussels and said the law adopted by the Armenian parliament meant the country seeks to join the EU. He acknowledged that this was not a simple process and all EU member states needed to agree to Armenia’s membership. He emphasised that regardless of whether Armenia ultimately joins the EU, the country will continue its ambitious reform programme.

After a long hiatus following the Brussels summit facilitated by Charles Michel, then President of the European Council, in July 2023, the leaders of Armenia and Azerbaijan met on July 10, 2025, in Abu Dhabi, the capital of the United Arab Emirates (UAE), to advance their peace process. Although they had met on several occasions over the past two years, those encounters took place on the sidelines of international gatherings, with substantive negotiations typically conducted by official representatives behind closed doors. The Abu Dhabi meeting was particularly significant as it marked the first bilateral summit in recent years organized directly by the two sides, without the mediation of a major power.

Depending on whom you ask, last week’s meeting between Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev in Abu Dhabi was either a historic development or simply another routine step in the still-fragile peace process. In an interview with Slovak media prior to the talks last week, Azerbaijani presidential advisor Hikmet Hajiyev even claimed the conflict between the sides is now over. Both sides believed that they were now the closest to formalising a peace treaty than at any time before.

The visit of the Syrian leader, Ahmed al Sharaa to Baku on 12 July was short but highly significant. The discussions between al Sharaa and president Ilham Aliyev of Azerbaijan were substantive and covered a number of areas, including Syria's complicated relationship with Israel, and Syria's energy crises. Talks between Syria and the Azerbaijani oil and gas company SOCAR have been on-going to for several months, and during al Sharaa's visit a Memorandum of Understanding was signed, formalising the relationship. Azerbaijan is reported to be going to supply Syria with gas via Turkiye. During the discussions the possibility of using the facilities of the Turkish State energy company, Botas, was also discussed, and the plan is to use the newly constructed Kilis-Azaz-al Bab-Aleppo pipeline. According to various Syrian, Israeli and Azerbaijani sources a meeting also took place in Baku on 12 July between Syrian and Israeli officials regarding possible normalisation of relations

A number of European states have said that they are "disturbed and deeply concerned at the deteriorating situation in Georgia". In a Joint statement of 11 July 2025 the Foreign Ministers of Belgium, Czechia, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Iceland, Ireland, Latvia, Lithuania, the Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Spain, Sweden, the United Kingdom and the High Representative of the European Union commented on recent developments in Georgia We, the Foreign Ministers of European democracies, are disturbed and deeply concerned at the deteriorating situation in Georgia. We strongly condemn the recent, politically motivated, imprisonment and detention of the leaders of Georgian opposition, clearly designed to stifle political opposition in Georgia, a few months ahead of the local elections. Their detention, as well as arbitrary arrests and increasing repression of other Georgian authorities` critics, representatives of civil society, peaceful protesters and independent journalists, contribute to dismantling of democracy in Georgia and rapid transformation towards an authoritarian system, in contradiction to European norms and values. Recent legislative changes aim at stifling independent civil society and legitimate protest.