South Caucasus

Georgia is once again embroiled in turmoil, its central Rustaveli Avenue literally alight with protests sparked by a wave of political and geopolitical tensions. Following controversial parliamentary elections held 26 October, tensions have escalated, with many citizens accusing the government of pivoting away from the European Union in favour of closer ties with Russia. They demand a new vote.

The United States has expressed support for the Georgian people saying that it has been a partner to Georgia and the Georgian people for more than 32 years.  In a statement on Wednesday, Secretary of State Anthony J.Blinken said that the partnership has been rooted in a shared love of freedom and democracy and a desire to see Georgia in the Euro-Atlantic family. 

Time is up for the Georgian Dream and its leader Bidzina Ivanishvili. Many in Georgia accused the Georgian Dream of rigging the elections of 28 October, and in recent weeks there have been protests in Georgia calling for new fair elections and an investigation into what actually happened around the election period and the election process. The beating up of peaceful demonstrators in the streets of Tbilisi in recent days is an embarrassment to every decent Georgian Dream supporter. That was bad enough, but what finally broke the government's support was the decision by the Georgian Dream two days ago to end its negotiations with the European Union with a view to Georgia's joining the EU or rather postpone the negotiations with four years. This created a completely different situation. Because, first of all, EU membership and EU perspective is embedded in the Georgian constitution, so Georgian Dream has no power to actually renounce or delay this mandate. Secondly, for many people it brought up the whole question of future relations with the EU and the West, and in truth no one in Georgia wants to break relations and the decision of the Georgian Dream leaves it isolated and unable to claim the support of the whole society.

Four years after the Second Karabakh War, civil society initiatives between Armenian and Azerbaijan remain arguably less impactful than ever before. On the surface, they appear few and far between, but many are often held in secret. The reason given is often security but that argument is no longer as credible as it was before. Indeed, nearly all projects that do exist remain largely untouched and unhindered. Instead, mirroring the situation before 2020, many Armenian practitioners refused to meet with their Azerbaijani counterparts, especially while Baku still held prisoners and other detainees from the war. That number is significantly less now. Time has passed and there may finally be the realisation that dialogue is the only way forward.

Over the past two years, numerous unofficial deadlines have been set for signing the Armenia-Azerbaijan peace treaty. Until the end of last year, the people of both countries held their breath in anticipation of a breakthrough, encouraged by officials on both sides who deemed an agreement possible. Later, there was significant optimism that the two former adversaries might reach a deal during the United Nations Climate Conference (COP29) which was held on November 11-24 in Baku.

The recent BRICS summit held on 22-24 October in the Russian city of Kazan, featured the first talks in the last few months between the Azerbaijani and Armenian leadership. The countries were represented by President Aliyev and Prime Minister Pashinyan as well as the foreign ministers, Bayramov and Mirzoyan. Pashinyan declared that at the moment “all the matters of principles have been addressed and resolved” by the draft treaty, although Armenia’s chief diplomat Mirzoyan toned his statement a bit down, claiming that the document “is at least 80-90% agreed upon”.

With the conclusion of the United Nations Climate Change Conference COP29 in Azerbaijan, discussions with Armenia on normalising relations are expected to resume in December. However, it remains uncertain whether an agreement will be reached anytime soon, as past attempts to finalise talks have consistently fallen short. That said, there may now be some clarity regarding the three key issues believed to be preventing a breakthrough. In early November, Farid Shafiyev, Chair of the Centre for Analysis of International Relations (AIR) in Azerbaijan, shared on X what he claims are the specific points left unresolved.

“As the host country of COP29, we have become the target of a coordinated, well-orchestrated campaign of slander and blackmail”, said President Ilham Aliyev of Azerbaijan during his inauguration speech at the climate conference on November 12. This conference was the largest international event ever organized in Azerbaijan and the South Caucasus. Bringing together 80 presidents, vice-presidents, and prime ministers, the conference had 72,000 registered participants from 196 countries. Azerbaijan has concentrated all its efforts over the past year since it received the mandate of hosting this event to make it as well-organized and successful as possible. In parallel, the country has had to deal with the information attacks from multiple sources over the past year.

China is a relatively new player in the South Caucasus but has growing interests, particularly in the economic domain. While Beijing established diplomatic ties with Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia in the early 1990s, it largely stayed out of the region’s geopolitics. Armenia acquired Chinese-made WM-80 multiple-launch systems in 1999, but they had little impact on the military balance with Azerbaijan. Chinese economic ties with the South Caucasus began to grow in the early 2000s, driven by the rapid expansion of its economy. Interest in the region deepened after President Xi Jinping announced the Belt and Road Initiative in 2013, with the South Caucasus envisioned as a potential land route connecting China to Europe.