South Caucasus

Tensions between Azerbaijan and Russia have been on an escalatory track since the crash of the Azerbaijani Airlines commercial airplane in December 2024. In the past, similar disputes were usually resolved quickly, leaving little lasting impact. This time, however, the crisis is far more complex and shows no signs of de-escalation. On the contrary, almost every month since the crash has marked new record lows in Baku–Moscow relations and appears likely to have a lasting impact on future bilateral ties. The situation has become so intricate and unpredictable that further deterioration cannot be ruled out.

It is now 31 years since I first travelled from London to the South Caucasus to report from what was then Nagorno Karabakh. Since then, I’ve covered almost every dimension of the conflict. From the Azerbaijani POWs and civilian hostages I encountered on my first trip to Karabakh in 1994, through the ethnic Armenian refugees from Azerbaijan struggling to rebuild their lives in Armenia that same year and then from 1999, and the lingering danger of landmines and unexploded ordnance that plagued the seven formerly occupied regions of Azerbaijan surrounding Karabakh throughout the 2000s. They still claim lives today.

The agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan, initialed at the White House in Washington DC on Friday, 8 August 2025 has been published. The preamble of the agreement states: The Republic of Armenia and the Republic of Azerbaijan (hereinafter referred to as the Parties), Recognizing the urgent need to establish a just, comprehensive and lasting peace in the region, Seeking to contribute to the achievement of this goal through the establishment of interstate relations, Guided by the Charter of the United Nations, the Declaration on Principles of International Law concerning Friendly Relations and Co-operation among States in Accordance with the Charter of the United Nations (1970), the Final Act of the Helsinki Conference on Security and Co-operation in Europe (1975) and the Almaty Declaration of 21 December 1991, and aiming to develop relations on the basis of the norms and principles enshrined in the aforementioned documents, Expressing their mutual desire to establish good neighborly relations between them, have agreed to establish peace and interstate relations between themselves on the following basis: There follows a 17 article agreement. The website of the Armenian Foreign said that, by mutual consent, the initialed agreement "On the establishment of peace and interstate relations between the Republic of Armenia and the Republic of Azerbaijan" is hereby published. You can read the full text.

The meeting of president Ilham Aliyev of Azerbaijan, and prime minister Nikol Pashinyan of Armenia in the White House on 8 August 2025 has been described many times as being “historic”, and in many ways it was. However the presence and active participation of the president of the United States made it “special”. However, Donald Trump managed to make the event “larger than life”. Trump was on his best behaviour. He was relaxed and happy. He piled profuse compliments on his two guests, and they replied in kind, indulging in flattery that at times was embarrassing. But you can excuse them. Never have two foreign leaders been so warmly welcomed in the White House. The substance was thin: the peace agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan was initialed but not signed; much of what was included in the Joint Declaration was aspirational, requiring further negotiations. But the symbolism and imagery was powerful. And in this case, it mattered. The world has scrambled to welcome the Armenia-Azerbaijan meeting in Washington. The European Union was first: Commission president Ursula von der Leyen and Council president, Antonio Costa, issued a statement within minutes. Various other EU personalities followed on Saturday. There was an important statement by Turkey, followed by UK, Netherlands, Georgia, Saudi Arabia, Poland, UAE, France, Israel, the Central Asian countries and others. Statements were also issued by the UN, NATO, OSCE, Council of Europe, NATO PA and others. The reaction from Russia came late on Saturday and was muffled.