Conflict and Peace

It seems someone is trying to add fuel to fire in an already tense Middle East. A terrorist attack in Iran's southern city of Kerman on Wednesday (3 January) left nearly one hundred people dead, and many more injured. The victims were in a massive crowd participating in an event commemorating Revolutionary Guards general Qasem Soleimani four years after his death in a US strike. The two explosions came amid high Middle East tensions over the Israel-Hamas war in Gaza and the killing of a Hamas senior leader in Lebanon on Tuesday. The unclaimed attacks, which sparked fears of a widening conflict in the region, and sparked global condemnation.  The United Nations, European Union, and several countries including Saudi Arabia, UAE, Turkey. Russia, Jordan, Germany and Iraq denounced the blasts. UN chief Antonio Guterres “strongly condemns” the blasts, his office said, and the EU said: “This act of terror has exacted a shocking toll of civilian deaths and injuries.” The EU’s top diplomat, Josep Borrell, said that he spoke to Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian to “convey condolences” and “condemned this terrorist attack in the strongest terms and expressed solidarity with the Iranian people.”

Tension is high in the Horn of Africa after the self-declared state of Somaliland made a deal with Ethiopia granting it sea access. Ethiopia has been a landlocked country since granting independence to Eritrea in the 1990s following a prolonged struggle. Somalia has described the agreement as an act of "aggression". Somaliland seceded from Somalia more than 30 years ago, but is not recognised internationally. It said that Ethiopia agreed to recognise its independence at some point in the future in exchange for military access to the coast. Ethiopia has not confirmed this aspect of Monday's contentious deal. The office of Ethiopian prime minister Abiy Ahmed confirmed the country had signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) "to secure access to the sea and diversify its access to seaports". Mr Abiy had previously described sea access as an "existential issue" for his country. His national security adviser, Redwan Hussein, said the arrangement could enable Ethiopia to access a "leased military base" on the Red Sea, but gave no further details. In a related development, Egypt’s President Abdul Fattah al-Sisi has pledged support for Somalia in its row with Ethiopia. Egypt already has strained relations with Ethiopia over issues related to the flow of the Nile River, which passes through Ethiopia before it continues on to Sudan and Egypt. In a phone call with Somalia’s President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, Mr Sisi pledged "Egypt’s firm position to stand by Somalia and support its security and stability". In a statement on Tuesday (2 January), the European Union reminded of the importance of respecting the unity, the sovereignty and the territorial integrity of the Federal Republic of Somalia pursuant of its constitution, the Charters of the African Union and the United Nations. "This is key for the peace and stability of the entire Horn of Africa region", the statement added. The signing of the MOU between Ethiopia and Somaliland came on the same day that Ethiopia became a full member of BRICS. Apart from its five founding members: Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa, the Group now also includes Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates.

At the end of his weekly General Audience, Pope Francis prays for those suffering from violence in Palestine, Israel and Ukraine, and asks for prayers for an end to all war. Speaking at the end of his General Audience on Wednesday (27 December), Pope Francis renewed his appeal for peace in the Holy Land and Ukraine. “Please, do not forget to pray for those suffering the terrible consequences of violence and war,” he said. “Let us pray especially for martyred Ukraine and for the populations of Palestine and Israel. War is an evil. Let us pray for an end to war.” Pope Francis has been calling for a humanitarian ceasefire in Gaza since 29 October. In his traditional Urbi et Orbi message on Christmas Day, the Pope pleaded for "an end to the military operations with their appalling harvest of innocent civilian victims" and called for "an opening to the provision of humanitarian aid" in Gaza. He also said that his "heart grieves for the victims of the abominable attack of 7 October," and he repeated his "urgent appeal for the liberation of those still being held hostage.” The Pope expressed his hope that sincere dialogue with strong political will and international support might lead to a resolution of the "Palestinian question." In his Urbi et Orbi address, Pope Francis also prayed for an end to the war in Ukraine. “Contemplating the Baby Jesus,” the Pope said, “I implore peace for Ukraine.” “Let us renew our spiritual and human closeness to its embattled people,” he urged, “so that through the support of each of us, they may feel the concrete reality of God’s love."

Russia has confirmed one of its warships has been damaged in a Ukrainian attack on a Black Sea port. The airstrike took place at Feodosiya in Russian-occupied Crimea early on Tuesday morning. Russia's Ministry of Defence said the large landing ship Novocherkassk was struck by Ukrainian aircraft carrying guided missiles. The head of the Ukrainian Air Force said earlier its warplanes had destroyed the ship. One person was killed in the attack, according to the Russian-installed head of Crimea, Sergei Aksyonov. Several others were reportedly hurt. Six buildings were damaged and a small number of people had to be taken to temporary accommodation centres, Mr Aksyonov added. The port's transport operations are said to be functioning as normal after the area was cordoned off, while a fire caused by the attack was contained. Footage purportedly showing a huge explosion in the port was shared by Ukrainian air force commander Lt Gen Mykola Oleshchuk. The images have not been independently verified. However, satellite imagery from 24 December shows a ship at port in Feodosiya that appears to be the same length as the Novocherkassk - a landing ship designed to transport troops, weapons and cargo to shore. Any significant damage to the ship will be a welcome bit of good news for Ukraine, with waning Western support now affecting its front-line operations. Given that the Novocherkassk was in dock, it is highly likely it was being loaded with soldiers, equipment or both. There was speculation that the ship was carrying Iranian-made Shahed drones, which Russia has been using in its attacks on Ukrainian targets.

Health officials in Gaza say more than 20,000 Palestinians have been killed in the war between Israel and Hamas. The figure, amounting to nearly one percent of the territory’s prewar population, is a new reflection of the staggering cost of the war, which in just over 10 weeks has displaced more than 80 percent of Gaza’s people and devastated wide swaths of the tiny coastal enclave. Gaza’s health ministry said Friday that it has documented 20,057 deaths in the fighting. It does not differentiate between combatant and civilian deaths. It has previously said that roughly two-thirds of the dead were women or children.

"While optimism surrounds the impending peace agreement, the cautionary inclusion of guarantees becomes crucial to forestall resurgent territorial claims", writes Vasif Huseynov in this op-ed for commonspace.eu citing a comment by president Aliyev on 6 December. "As the region braces for a historic peace agreement, the challenge lies in designing a comprehensive treaty that not only concludes hostilities but fosters enduring reconciliation between Azerbaijan and Armenia."

"Despite hopes, Armenia and Azerbaijan failed to sign a peace agreement by the end of 2023", writes Benyamin Poghosyan in this op-ed for commonspace.eu. "However, since the text of the document seems to be, by and large, already agreed, there are hopes that an agreement may be signed in the first half of 2024. Otherwise, the EU and US election cycles in the Summer and Autumn of 2024 may push the South Caucasus out of the West's radar. If this happens, Russia may resume its leading role as a negotiation platform between Armenia and Azerbaijan, pushing the two sides to sign a peace agreement in Moscow by the end of 2024", he argues. 

For many months formal talks between Armenia and Azerbaijan have been in stagnation, writes Samir Hajizada in this op-ed for commonspace.eu. Then on 7 December, the two countries surprised the international community with a joint statement re-affirming commitment to the peace process and announcing confidence-building measures. A number of recent developments allow us to assume that the bilateral discussion format is finally gaining a real momentum. Thus, on December 14, the Government of Armenia has approved the regulations for the functioning of the delimitation commission- while a similar move is expected from Baku in the coming days. Moreover, on the same day Azerbaijani MFA issued a statement that normalisation of relations with Armenia seems realistic, and Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan during his visit to Azerbaijan stated that peace between the countries is very close. The opportunities for a long-awaited breakthrough suddenly started to look bright at the end of the grim 2023.