Conflict and Peace

On Monday evening (7 July), US President Donald Trump announced that the US will supply more weapons to Ukraine. According to Trump, recent Russian attacks on Ukrainian cities left him with little choice. “We are going to send more weapons,” Trump told reporters at the White House. “We have to. They have to be able to defend themselves. They are being hit very hard.” It is unclear what kind of weapons Trump is referring to.

According to various Ukrainian media reports, several Ukrainian cities were hit on the night of Tuesday 8 July into Wednesday 9 July by the heaviest Russian missile and drone attack since the large-scale invasion in February 2022. The capital, Kyiv, was among the cities that came under heavy fire, according to Kyiv Independent journalists who were on the scene.

The governments of Armenia and Azerbaijan have recently agreed the text of a historic peace agreement that ends years of animosity and warfare. The agreement is expected to be signed soon. LINKS Europe, which has a long history of engagement with the process of peace in the region, recently launched a new Armenia-Azerbaijan dialogue format in the framework of the European Union's EU4Peace initiative. In the last two weeks dozens of Armenians and Azerbaijanis, including academics, students, civil society activists, journalists and other professionals, many of them young, were involved. The work is organised in five thematic groups focusing on peace and security, connectivity, environment, governance and gender and equality and in phase 2 of the project, which has just ended, around fifty participants took part in in-person and online meetings, and more than twenty others were involved indirectly. The Chairpersons of the five thematic groups met in Vilnius, 3-6 July to launch the third phase of the program. The five thematic groups are now working on separate reports, which are expected to be finished in November and presented to the two governments and other stakeholders. The reports will outline a vision, up to 2040.

 Last week, as NATO leaders gathered in Brussels for their summit, LINKS Europe joined other civil society organisations in a public statement. The Statement was the initiative of The Hague Humanity Hub. The statement called for a balanced vision of peace and security, one that places people at its heart. At a time when the focus is increasingly drawn toward defense capabilities and military preparedness, the statement urged equal and sustained attention to and investment in the long-term work of building resilient, inclusive, and just societies. This is not an alternative to security, it is the foundation of it, the statement added.

On Friday (4 July), Eurasia Review reported that Yemen’s Houthi rebels were supplying drones to Somali militant groups, raising security concerns across the Horn of Africa. Despite having different religious affiliations — Somali militant groups primarily advocate for Sunni Islamist ideology, while the Houthis back Shiism — the two groups began cooperating to expand ammunition and weaponry supply routes.

In Mackinder’s terminology, Eurasia is the heartland of geopolitics and the South Caucasus, though small in economic terms compared to the surrounding major powers, constitutes the heart of that heartland. No major power can afford to ignore or neglect it. Strategically located at the crossroads of East and West and being the only region that borders two most controversial actors of Eurasia (Russia and Iran), control over the South Caucasus equates to control over a vital part of the Eurasian continent. This is why the region’s geopolitical orientation carries immense significance, particularly amid the evolving landscape of international relations shaped by the war in Ukraine and the recent escalation of tensions between Iran and Israel in the southern neighborhood. Today, the geopolitics of the South Caucasus is in flux, and most importantly, this transition has now reached to the most important nation-state of the region: Azerbaijan.

EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Kaja Kallas has ended her official visit to Armenia after signing a partnership agreement with authorities in Yerevan. Following talks with Armenian Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan, a joint press conference was held in which the media was briefed about an agreement outlining Armenia’s participation in the European Union’s Common Security and Defence Policy crisis management operations. According to Kallas, the document envisions Armenia’s participation in EU missions around the world.

The Russian president and his French counterpart Emmanuel Macron  have spoken on the phone for the first time in years. Their last conversation took place in September 2022, more than six months after Russia's invasion of Ukraine.