Iran and Afghanistan

According to the Taliban government, an earthquake measuring 6.0 on the Richter scale in eastern Afghanistan killed around 800 people on Sunday night. More than 2.700 people are also reported to have been injured. The death toll has risen rapidly in recent hours. This is partly due to the inaccessibility of the mountainous region.

Uncertainty has again emerged along the Armenia-Iran border as the risk of the long-standing conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan turning into further geopolitical competition continues. What was once a post-war localised disagreement over territory and sovereignty is now entangled in a web of regional interests and strategic manoeuvring. Increasingly, peace risks being shaped less by the needs of local populations but more by the calculations of distant capitals. External interference has rather delayed progress almost five years since the 2020 war. If peace is the objective, then the region needs inclusive not selective diplomacy and definitely not new geopolitical fault lines.

Last month, TIME magazine ran a cover story entitled “A New Middle East Is Unfolding before our eyes”. “The middle of what? East of where?”, asks Tim Marshall in his seminal book ‘Prisoners of Geography’, before quickly reminding us that “The Middle East is one of those places where the past is now”.

On Thursday (17 July), Pakistan, Afghanistan and Uzbekistan signed a framework agreement in Kabul to conduct a joint feasibility study for the Naibabad–Kharlachi segment of the Uzbekistan–Afghanistan–Pakistan (UAP) railway corridor.

On Thursday (3 July), Russia formally recognised the Taliban government in Afghanistan by accepting credentials from its new ambassador, Gul Hassan Hassan. In April, Russia removed the Taliban from its list of terrorist organisations. On Thursday, the Russian Foreign Ministry welcomed this decision, stating that diplomatic ties would promote "productive bilateral cooperation" in areas such as trade, energy, transport, agriculture, and security. Afghanistan’s foreign minister, Amir Khan Muttaqi, welcomed Russia’s move, calling it 'historic' and expressing hope that other countries would follow suit. This reflects the Taliban's growing efforts to gain international legitimacy since seizing power in August 2021 following the US withdrawal from the country.

Hours after US President Donald Trump said his ceasefire had taken effect, Israel said it intercepted two Iranian missiles, with Defence Minister Israel Katz vowing that the military would "respond forcefully". Israel had stated on Tuesday it agreed to Trump's declaration of a ceasefire with Iran, adding that it had achieved all its objectives in the 12-day war with its arch-enemy. According to AFP, Iran denied launching missiles at Israel after the ceasefire announcement, and said it had "compelled" Israel to "unilaterally halt its aggression", while stopping short of officially accepting the ceasefire plan.