Gulf and Red Sea Regions

Tensions remain high in South Yemen, one week after an unprecedented rift between Saudi Arabia and UAE, as a result of which UAE withdrew its forces from Yemen. On Friday (2 January), the UAE backed Southern Transitional Council (STC), an umbrella of groups in the South, announced a two-year transition period leading to a popular referendum and self-determination for the South. The announcement came after political tensions spiraled into clashes on the ground as Hadhramaut's governor, backed by the Presidential Leadership Council (PLC) chief, launched a military operation to retake STC-held positions. The STC said the transitional period would be used to agree “a clear path and mechanisms that guarantee the right of the southern people within a defined time frame”. Its statement added that the process would include a referendum regulating the exercise of the southern people’s right to self-determination, through peaceful and transparent mechanisms consistent with recognised international rules and practices, and with the participation of international observers,” the STC said. It is also understood that Saudi Naval Forces have been active in the Arabian Sea. The STC, which seeks the restoration of an independent South Yemen, took control of Hadhramaut and Mahra from other pro-government forces, effectively consolidating its grip over all southern governorates. Saudi Arabia, which hosts senior Yemeni government and PLC figures, condemned the STC’s takeover. The kingdom has led the anti-Houthi alliance since 2015, with the UAE playing a key role in the south. In the meantime, Saudi Arabia’s foreign ministry has invited factions in south Yemen to hold a dialogue in Riyadh to “discuss just solutions to the southern cause.” The ministry statement said the conference in the Saudi capital had been requested by Rashad Al-Alimi, President of the Yemeni Presidential Leadership Council, and the Kingdom urged all factions to participate “to develop a comprehensive vision” that would fulfill the aspirations of the southern people. (click the picture to read the full story)  

The very public, and very rare, spat between Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, which saw Saudi planes bombarding cargo in Mukalla in Southern Yemen, which had just been unloaded from two ships that arrived from the UAE port of Fujeirah, has caused concern among the four other GCC countries, and other neighbours in the region. Omani Foreign Minister Badr Al Busaidi visited Riyadh on Wednesday for talks with Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan on the developments in Yemen, which have raised concern across the region. Oman's Foreign Ministry said the meeting between the ministers “addressed efforts to contain the escalation of violence and ways to support the political process aimed at addressing the root causes of the crisis”. Tension has risen in recent weeks after the military takeover of Mahra and Hadhramaut, which share a 700km border with Saudi Arabia, by the Southern Transitional Council. The STC is the largest faction within the forces of the ruling Presidential Leadership Council, led by Rashad al Alimi.  In Riyadh, Mr Al Busaidi and Prince Faisal discussed “achieving a comprehensive and sustainable settlement that preserves the sovereignty of the Republic of Yemen over its security and stability, while also taking into account the aspirations of its people and the higher national security interests of neighbouring countries and the rest of the region”, Oman's Foreign Ministry said. Oman has played a vital mediation role in Yemen since Houthi rebels seized the capital, Sanaa, in 2014, forcing the government to flee south. A Saudi-led coalition, including the UAE, intervened at the request of the government to counter the Houthis, who control most of the north. On Monday ( 28 December) the UAE announced that it was heeding calls by Mr Alimi, backed by Saudi statements, which called for the withdrawal of UAE forces from Yemen. This in turn raised concerns about internationally backed efforts to counter terror groups there. Gulf countries have called for calm and restraint following the escalation in recent days. GCC members, Bahrain, Qatar, Oman and Kuwait said they were monitoring the situation closely, highlighting the important role played  in the past by Saudi Arabia and UAE supporting “stability and security” in Yemen. Bahrain expressed its “confidence in the leadership of the kingdom of Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates and their ability to contain any differences in viewpoints within the framework of a unified Gulf”. Qatar and Kuwait commended statements issued by the UAE and Saudi Arabia, which reflected “a commitment to prioritising the interests of the region, strengthening the principles of good neighbourliness and adhering to the foundations and principles upon which the GCC Charter is based”, Qatar's Foreign Ministry said. (click picture to read the article in full).

In a move seen as an attempt to de-escalate a crises with Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, on Tuesday (30th December) announced that it was heeding a call to withdraw its troops from Southern Yemen. UAE says that its presence included counter-terrorism teams that were crucial in fighting against Islamist groups. UAE sources said that parts of Yemen not controlled by the Houthis have had Al Qaeda in the Arab Peninsula (AQAP) operatives using the territory to launch attacks on Europe, the US and Middle East. UAE teams have co-ordinated with American and British special forces and intelligence. The sources added that Emirati forces and their Yemeni allies also helped reverse Houthi gains in the south. including the liberation of Aden port. The small UAE contingent has remained in place since the UAE withdrew most of its military personnel in 2019. The leading English-language newspaper in Abu Dhabi, The National, said that the main UAE force was based at Riyan Mukalla International Airport, with access to fixed-wing aircraft and helicopters, but also operated smaller contingents in the port town Balhaf and Shabwa. "It is understood it also flew a number of drones from the airbase that were able to track terrorist movements, pass information back to its allies and assisted special forces' missions." Meanwhile a division has emerged in Yemen's presidential council after four members denounced what they called the 'unilateral decisions' by the chairman. Four of Yemen’s eight Presidential Leadership Council members on Tuesday denounced an announcement by the council’s chairman accusing him of breaching the governing agreement. Tension between Yemeni leaders has been rising for weeks, underscoring the fragility of the country's already fractured political landscape and further complicating efforts to confront the Iran-backed Houthi rebels. The latest rift took an unprecedented turn on Tuesday morning, marked by a Saudi-led coalition “limited operation” striking combat vehicles Riyadh linked to the Southern Transitional Council, which has three members in the PLC. The PLC Chairman, Rashad al Alimi, on Tuesday said that he was seeking to cancel the joint defence agreement with the UAE. “What has been issued … constitutes a clear violation of the Declaration of the Transfer of Power [agreement], which explicitly stipulates that the Presidential Leadership Council is a collective body whose decisions are taken by consensus, or by majority when consensus is not possible,” the statement by the four members said. “It does not, under any circumstances, allow for unilateral decision-making on sovereign, military, or major political matters." The statement was signed by STC chief Aidarous Al Zubaidi, Faraj Al Bahsani, Tariq Saleh and Abu Zaraa al Muharrami. (click the picture to read the full article).

The relations between Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) are increasingly strained as a result of the different approach of the two countries towards Yemen. Whilst both countries were initially together in resisting the Houthi take over in Yemen, the UAE subsequently focused on the South of the country, backing the Southern Movement (STC), which seeks to restore the independence of South Yemen. South Yemen became an independent country in 1967, at the end of British rule, and only unified with the north in 1990. The Saudi-led “Coalition to Support Legitimacy in Yemen” on Tuesday, 30 December, said it conducted a “limited” airstrike targeting two ships “that smuggled weapons and other military hardware into Mukalla in southern Yemen”. The ships originated in the UAE port of Furjeirah. In a statement carried by the Saudi Press Agency (SPA), the Coalition Forces spokesman, Major General Turki Al-Maliki, said that two ships coming from the port of Fujairah in the United Arab Emirates entered the Port of Mukalla in Hadramaut without obtaining official permits from the Joint Forces Command of the Coalition. He stressed the Coalition's "continued commitment to de-escalation and enforcing calm in the governorates of Hadramawt and Al-Mahra, and to prevent any military support from any country to any Yemeni faction without coordination with the legitimate Yemeni government and the Coalition. The Southern Transitional Council (STC), launched a sweeping military campaign early in December, seizing the governorates of Hadramaut along the Saudi border and the eastern governorate of Al-Mahra in Yemen’s border with Oman. The UAE-backed STC forces captured the city of Seiyun, including its international airport and the presidential palace. They also took control of the strategic PetroMasila oilfields, which account for a massive portion of Yemen’s remaining oil wealth. (click the image to read the article in full).

Sudan’s latest war began in April 2023, though the seeds of its violence were planted long before. The Sudanese Armed Forces and the Rapid Support Forces did not collide out of nowhere; they emerged from decades of political rot, unaddressed grievances, ethnic persecution, and military rule that carved deep fractures into the country’s social fabric. When fighting exploded across Khartoum and later consumed Darfur, Kordofan, and the east, it unleashed one of the worst humanitarian catastrophes of the 21st century. In this op-ed, Ioana-Maria Ungureanu, Junior Research Assistant at LINKS Europe, takes a heartfelt look at the plight of Sudan, and its children. When the latest war started, whole cities emptied. Markets burned. Families fled on foot. And a famine began tightening its grip, slow and suffocating. And yet, the world remained mostly silent. Sudanese death is too often framed as an unfortunate feature of the region, a tragedy that feels expected rather than outrageous. Even when evidence of atrocity is abundant, it fails to command the same emotional weight. Sudan should not have to beg for visibility. It deserves it. Because its people deserve to live. And their lives deserve the same respect, safety, and hope that we demand for our own. (read the op-ed in full by clicking the image above)

The United Nations Secretary-General has warned that the war in Sudan is “spiralling out of control” after a paramilitary force seized the besieged and famine-stricken Darfur city of el-Fasher. Speaking in Qatar during the opening of the World Summit for Social Development on 4th November, Antonio Guterres called for an immediate ceasefire in the two-year conflict that has become one of the world’s worst humanitarian crises.