Domestic Politics

As the US presidential election approaches, many are assessing the implications of a Donald Trump or Kamala Harris administration in different parts of the world. Commentators on the South Caucasus are no exception. The Biden administration established a Washington format to facilitate Armenia–Azerbaijan negotiations and took steps to further US–Armenia relations, making a decision to upgrade the status of a strategic dialogue launched in 2019 to a strategic partnership commission. The Biden administration also invested efforts in thawing relations between Armenia and Turkey, viewing this as essential for regional stability. US officials view normalising Armenia–Turkey relations as crucial for reducing Russian influence and decreasing Armenia’s dependency on Russia.

The US Helsinki Commission on Tuesday (1 October) published an analysis of Russia's political and economic agenda. The document addresses, among other things, various developments in the South Caucasus. The region is experiencing various political shifts as Russia's material influence wanes due to its focus on its war with Ukraine. On the one hand. Armenia was once one of Russia's strongest allies. However, following the Nagorno Karabakh war in 2020, Armenia has moved away from Moscow and more towards a Western agenda. On the other hand, Azerbaijan has adopted a cooperative approach with Russia, especially given the similarities between the two countries' strong governmental grip.   

Ruben Vardanyan, an Armenian ex-official of the self-declared Nagorno Karabakh administration, was arrested and imprisoned along with other top Karabakh officials during Baku's recapture of Nagorno Karabakh in September 2023. On Thursday (3 October), Vardanyan's lawyers filed a lawsuit in Baku for alleged torture and denial of a speedy trial. 

On Wednesday (3 October), the Tavush movement, under the new name of the Holy Struggle, held a political rally in Yerevan's Republic Square. The movement was formed to protest against border delimitation with Azerbaijan, but also to demand the resignation of Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan. The newly chosen name, 'Holy Struggle', is a strategic way of attracting support, particularly by exploiting its Christian overtones. 

NATO's new Secretary General Mark Rutte visited Kyiv on Thursday (3 October). It is Rutte's first working trip since officially taking office earlier this week. Earlier, Rutte announced that Ukraine's NATO membership would be one of the spearheads of his policy.

The Armenian government plans to increase military spending by about 20 per cent, equivalent to 110 billion drams (about $286 million). According to the proposed state budget for 2025, the Ministry of Defence will receive 664.6 billion drams (about $1.7 billion). Military expert Leonid Nersisyan, a researcher at the Armenian analytical centre APRI, describes this defence spending as unprecedented. However, he points out that despite the increased budget, Yerevan still lags far behind Baku in terms of military spending. Military spending remains lower than social spending in the state budget. Although the gap in military spending between Armenia and Azerbaijan is narrowing, with Armenia now trailing by a factor of two instead of five or six as it did in 2013, the difference remains significant.

Floods in southern Morocco have killed at least 11 people and left nine missing. The Moroccan interior ministry told the French news agency AFP. One of the dead is a foreigner. It did not say who he was.

Several patients in a makeshift Mpox isolation ward in the eastern Democratic Republic of Congo are in urgent need of proper medical care as hospital staff struggle with drug shortages and overcrowding. These patients have been diagnosed with Mpox, a virus that was declared a global public health emergency three weeks ago. Reports over the past two weeks suggest that vaccines against the new strain of the virus are expected to arrive soon. In response to the outbreak, Congo's President Felix Tshisekedi has approved a $10 million fund to support containment efforts. However, until these measures are implemented, health workers in parts of the DRC continue to struggle to provide adequate care for patients.