Conflict and Peace

Azerbaijan and Armenia are expected to sign a memorandum of understanding in Washington on Friday 8 August, committing to the pursuit of peace, according to regional sources who spoke to Middle East Eye (MEE). The move commits the two countries to a future peace deal amid increasing US influence in the South Caucasus. The sources said that US President Donald Trump will host Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev and Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan at the White House for the signing ceremony.

Beijing’s special envoy for the Horn of Africa, Xue Bing, told a regional conference attended by eight governments from the region that ‘all parties should engage in dialogue’ to achieve common prosperity. In the meeting China reaffirmed its support for peaceful development in the Horn of Africa, saying it would “actively engage” in regional initiatives to promote the concept. But analysts and observers are very skeptical. Whilst China might dabble with the region and its many problems, it ability to impact the situation, and particularly contribute to resolving the conflicts that plague the region is minimal. In his speech at the Kampala Conference, Xue said Beijing would offer military assistance and training, as well as helping to develop the region’s infrastructure and boosting trade. “The world today faces overlapping risks and challenges that threaten peace and development in the Horn of Africa, and all parties should engage in dialogue and cooperation to maintain universal security and achieve common prosperity,” Xue told the event, according to the Chinese foreign ministry. Xue outlined further areas of cooperation, including counterterrorism and landmine eradication, while stressing China’s support for “African-led solutions” through platforms such as the African Union and the Intergovernmental Authority on Development.

"Saudi diplomacy has achieved in 18 months what half a century of summitry and rhetoric failed to deliver'' writes Ali Shihabi in the influential Saudi newspaper, Arab News. "Over the past 18 months, Riyadh has quietly delivered a masterclass in diplomacy, steadily reshaping how Western capitals approach the Palestinian file", the writer says. "The Kingdom has pursued a strategy rooted in hard-nosed pragmatism: Washington’s strategic umbrella over Israel will not fold under fiery speeches or social media storms. Rather than waste energy on theatrics, Saudi Arabia has opted for a patient, cumulative approach — chipping away at Israel’s aura of effortless Western legitimacy until the political calculus inside G7 capitals begins to shift. It may feel slow to the impatient observer, but in a world that rewards persistence over noise, this is how real influence is built." We republish the article in full here.

A new UN expert report to the Security Council released Wednesday (30 July) highlights the escalating threat posed by Islamic State (ISIS) and al‑Qaida affiliates across Africa, with risks also rising in Syria. The report claims that Africa has now become the centre of extremist activity as groups exploit weakened governance and regional instability. In Syria, the post‑Assad transition remains volatile. The report warns that both ISIS and al‑Qaida perceive Syria as a strategic base for international operations. Over 5,000 foreign fighters are believed to have participated in the December 2024 offensive in Damascus, raising fears of ideological spread and extremist infiltration across borders. The report also notes the dangers of online radicalisation. Groups such as ISIS continue to radicalise individuals and orchestrate attacks in Europe, America and beyond via secure messaging networks.

Uncertainty has again emerged along the Armenia-Iran border as the risk of the long-standing conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan turning into further geopolitical competition continues. What was once a post-war localised disagreement over territory and sovereignty is now entangled in a web of regional interests and strategic manoeuvring. Increasingly, peace risks being shaped less by the needs of local populations but more by the calculations of distant capitals. External interference has rather delayed progress almost five years since the 2020 war. If peace is the objective, then the region needs inclusive not selective diplomacy and definitely not new geopolitical fault lines.

A Syrian-Israeli ministerial meeting is taking place on Thursday 31 July in Baku to discuss security matters in southern Syria, a diplomat told AFP. The meeting between Syrian Foreign Minister Asaad al-Shaibani and Israeli Minister of Strategic Affairs Ron Dermer follows a similar meeting between the two ministers in Paris last week. It will take place after an unprecedented visit by al-Shaibani to Moscow on Thursday, added the diplomat, who requested anonymity due to the sensitivity of the matter. Israel and Syria have technically been at war since 1948.

Russian glide bombs and ballistic missiles struck a Ukrainian prison and a medical facility overnight as Russia’s relentless strikes killed at least 22 people across the country, officials said on Tuesday 29 July, despite U.S. President Donald Trump’s threat to punish Russia with sanctions and tariffs unless it stops. Trump said on Monday he is giving Russian President Vladimir Putin 10 to 12 days to stop the killing in Ukraine after three years of war, moving up a 50-day deadline he had given the Russian leader two weeks ago. “I’m disappointed in President Putin,” Trump said during a visit to Scotland.

United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres has condemned both the 7 October Hamas attacks and what he described as the “obliteration” of Gaza, including mass civilian casualties, starvation and destruction of infrastructure. Guterres was addressing the  High-Level International Conference for the Peaceful Settlement of the Question of Palestine and the Implementation of the Two-State Solution that is being convened at the UN Headquarters in New York between 28 and 30 July. The UN chief urged world leaders to ensure the conference becomes a turning point for irreversible progress toward a two-State solution, calling it the only credible path to peace based on international law. Mandated by the General Assembly of the UN, the meeting features plenaries, working groups and interventions from senior UN officials and Member States.