Conflict and Peace

Depending on whom you ask, last week’s meeting between Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev in Abu Dhabi was either a historic development or simply another routine step in the still-fragile peace process. In an interview with Slovak media prior to the talks last week, Azerbaijani presidential advisor Hikmet Hajiyev even claimed the conflict between the sides is now over. Both sides believed that they were now the closest to formalising a peace treaty than at any time before.

The war in Ukraine, following Russia’s unprovoked invasion in February 2022, has now raged on for three and a half years. Thousands of Ukrainians, military and civilian, have died, and millions of Ukrainians have been displaced. Vladimir Putin brought this calamity on the Ukrainian people, and on his nation too, for political capriciousness and naked ambition. Leaders of European countries understood the seriousness and significance of the moment, not only those near Russia, such as Poland, the Baltic States, Finland and Sweden, but in wider Europe too, including Germany, France, the UK, the Netherlands and beyond. Yet whilst the leaders rose to the occasion, the European public has remained largely indifferent. The majority of Europeans have so far acquiesced to the decision of their leaders to pour billions of euros into the Ukrainian war effort, but the conflict remains distant, and most Europeans carry on with their lives as usual. Putin is perceived more as an oddity than a threat. There is a great risk in this. The European Union High Representative for Foreign and Security Policy, and former Estonian politician, Kaja Kallas, is quoted as saying “Ukraine fights today so that we may not have to fight tomorrow. Their fight is our fight.” True! But that is not the full story.

On Thursday (10 July), Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev met in the UAE to advance their peace negotiations, following the March agreement on a draft treaty intended to end decades of conflict. The talks, which covered border delimitation and confidence-building measures, were described by both sides as constructive. However, no final timeline for signing the full agreement was announced.

Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev are meeting on Thursday 10 July in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates, to discuss the next steps in finalising the peace agreement, their offices have confirmed to international news agencies. This is the first formal bilateral meeting between the leaders of Armenia and Azerbaijan since they agreed on the draft text of the peace agreement, following nearly four decades of conflict. The results of this meeting will shape the future of the South Caucasus and how the two countries can live peacefully next to each other after decades of conflict.