Defence

A Russia-appointed official in Ukraine’s occupied Luhansk region was quoted by AP on Monday saying that Moscow’s forces have overrun all of it, one of four regions Russia annexed from Ukraine in September 2022. If confirmed, it would make Luhansk the first Ukrainian region fully occupied by Russia after more than three years of war with international peace efforts led by the US failing to make progress on halting the fighting. Russian President Vladimir Putin has effectively rejected a ceasefire and hasn’t budged from his demands, which include Moscow’s control over the four illegally annexed regions. 

On July 1, Denmark takes over the Presidency of the Council of the European Union for the eighth time. Under the motto ‘A Strong Europe in a Changing World’, the Danish Presidency said its programme of work will ensure that the EU takes responsibility for its own security, while also strengthening its competitiveness. Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen said that priority will be given to boosting defence capabilities in Europe amid Russia's war in Ukraine and US threats to Greenland, a Danish autonomous territory. Pushing countries to keep promises to boost defence spending and bolstering Europe's "dangerous" security will top Denmark’s agenda as it takes over the rotating presidency on Tuesday, according to Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen.

The Nato Summit held in The Hague on 24-25 June was a failure, wrapped in success. It was a success because it avoided public display of divisions, mainly by avoiding issues: it was the shortest summit anyone can remember; it also had a very short final statement that basically had two points, the first a re-commitment to article 5 of the North Atlantic Charter and the principle that an attack on one will be considered an attack on all. The fact that Nato leaders in the Hague had felt the need to re-emphasise this should be a cause of worry not celebration, but in the end, it is good that it was said. The second outcome, the one that received most attention, was the commitment of European countries to spend more on their defence: 5 per cent of GDP, of which 3.5 per cent on hard defence, and 1.5 per cent on related ancillary areas such as infrastructure. You may, if you want, believe that this was a response to US President Donald Trump's insistence. Or, if you are more prudent, understand that countries that matter – Germany, France, Poland and the Scandinavian countries had decided on this course of action quite separately, and as a response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which was a wake-up call. Finland and Sweden’s decision to abandon their neutrality, and join NATO was taken long before Trump returned to the White House. The EU’s decision to spend massively on defence was always to ensure that other European countries are part of this process, willy-nilly.

Several countries that border Russia intend to leave the Ottawa Convention which bans anti personnel land mines. They include EU member states Finland, Poland, Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia, as well as Ukraine. Russia has not signed the Ottawa treaty and continues to stockpile and use landmines. Ukraine is withdrawing from the Ottawa Convention, which prohibits the use, stockpiling and production of anti-personnel mines, according to Roman Kostenko, People's Deputy of the Golos party and Secretary of the Committee on National Security, Defense and Intelligence of the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine . He said this is a step that the realities of war have long required. "Russia is not a party to this convention and is massively using mines against our military and civilians. We cannot remain constrained in conditions where the enemy has no restrictions," the MP noted.

On Wednesday afternoon (25 June), NATO member states unanimously agreed to increase the NATO standard for defence spending to 5 per cent of GDP over the next ten years. This is stated in the final joint declaration of the NATO summit in The Hague, published on the same day.

Hours after US President Donald Trump said his ceasefire had taken effect, Israel said it intercepted two Iranian missiles, with Defence Minister Israel Katz vowing that the military would "respond forcefully". Israel had stated on Tuesday it agreed to Trump's declaration of a ceasefire with Iran, adding that it had achieved all its objectives in the 12-day war with its arch-enemy. According to AFP, Iran denied launching missiles at Israel after the ceasefire announcement, and said it had "compelled" Israel to "unilaterally halt its aggression", while stopping short of officially accepting the ceasefire plan.

NATO summits are usually orderly affairs, prepared well in advance, and an opportunity for the partners in the military alliance to show unity and resolve. The forthcoming Nato Summit in The Hague, on Tuesday and Wednesday, 24 and 25 June is different. As the BBC put it, there will be 32 leaders from Europe and North America present, but “only one man matters  - NATO's summit is all about Trump”. With three wars on its borders, NATO needed a good summit in The Hague. Whilst managing Mr Trump, the 31 other leaders in The Hague need to think of the future.