Conflict and Peace

The 2nd South Caucasus Dialogue Forum was successfully held in the Georgian Capital, Tbilisi, on Tuesday, 28 October 2025, with the participation of over seventy experts, activists, diplomats and journalists from Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia and from a dozen European countries and organisations. The forum is an initiative of LINKS Europe, working with partners across the South Caucasus. This year's forum was special because of the participation of around forty Armenian and Azerbaijanis members of the Thematic Groups for a new Armenian-Azerbaijani Dialogue.  The 2nd South Caucasus Dialogue Forum provided for a very thorough and interesting discussion of current developments in the region. In the Forum the Armenian and Azerbaijani members were also joined by Georgian participants, as well as representatives of the EUSR Office, EUMA and Ambassadors and diplomats from around ten European countries. Also actively participating were the members of the Armenia-Azerbaijan Expert Strategic Platform. During the Forum it was announced that the 3rd Forum will be held in Yerevan in 2026, whilst the 4th Forum will be held in Baku is 2027, accompanying the process and meetings of the European Political Community, which are also expected to be held in the two countries in 2026/7. It was also announced that the members of the Strategic Expert Platform, working under the auspices of LINKS Europe (Dr Dennis Sammut, Chair, Dr Anar Veliyev, Mr Ramazan Samadov and Mr Mehman Aliyev (members Azerbaijan); Mr Stepan Grigoryan, Mr Benyamin Poghosyan and Mr Johnny Melikyan, members Armenia;) shall form the Political Preparatory Committee for the two events.

When Volodymyr Zelensky ran for office to become president of Ukraine in 2019, many did not take him seriously. Here was a person who had become famous as an actor, playing the role of an imaginary president in a television soap opera, wanting to get the real thing. In 2021/22, he, on his part, did not take seriously warnings about an imminent Russian invasion. He thought he could negotiate with Putin the future of Ukraine. He did not understand the contempt that Putin had for him, and indeed for the entire Ukrainian nation. The invasion marked the birth of a new Zelensky, and a new Ukraine. As Russian troops approached Kyiv, Zelensky, although he knew that he was a primary target that the Russians wanted to eliminate, refused offers to be evacuated, and said that he would stay on and resist. Most Ukrainians said the same. Ukraine is emerging from the war bruised but strong. In the war, the country has found itself. It has the potential and the self-confidence necessary to succeed. The war has enabled Ukraine to emerge from the shadow of Russia. Untangible as this concept is, it is the key issue that will define the country’s future. And Zelensky? Not by his own choice Zelensky ended up being a wartime leader. He did that very well. It is likely that when the war ends the Ukrainian people will want to move on to another leader that will be able to lead Ukraine in peace. But Volodymyr Zelensky has already earned a place in the history of Ukraine, and of Europe.  

The European Union on Thursday 23 October applied more economic sanctions on Russia, adding to U.S. President Donald Trump’s new punitive measures the previous day against the Russian oil industry. However, EU leaders meeting in Brussels have so far failed to reach a deal on using Russian frozen assets. European capitals were hoping to convince Belgium, which houses the international deposit organisation Euroclear and is worried about legal repercussions, that a reparation loan from the funds is workable. Most of the €200 billion in Russian central bank assets frozen by the EU are held in Euroclear. However, Belgian Prime Minister Bart De Wever has so far been skeptical, reiterating during the European Council meeting on Thursday that certain conditions must first be met before a €140 billion loan can be given to Ukraine using Russia’s frozen assets. Russian officials and state media dismissed the new Western measures, saying they are largely ineffective.

U.S. President  Donald Trump said that the Donbas region in the east of Ukraine should be “cut up,” leaving most of it in Russian hands, to end a  war that has dragged on for nearly four years. Trump has edged back in the direction of pressing Ukraine to give up on retaking land it has lost to Russia, in exchange for an end to the war. Following a phone call last week, the Russian and US leaders Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump announced they would meet in Budapest for talks on resolving the war in Ukraine, triggered by Moscow's all-out offensive in February 2022. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and US counterpart Marco Rubio spoke on Monday 20 October to discuss preparations for the summit, and are expected to meet in person to finalise details. However, the Kremlin stated on Tuesday 21 October that there was "no precise time frame" for the summit even though Trump stated that the meeting with Putin could take place within two weeks.

US President Donald Trump has announced his intention to meet with his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin, in Budapest, in an attempt to end the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. He did not specify when the meeting will take place. Trump added that he would also meet Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in the Oval Office on Friday 17 October to discuss his phone conversation with Putin.

On Thursday (16 October), Al-Sahwah reported that the Masam landmine clearance project, launched by the King Salman Humanitarian Aid and Relief Centre, had discovered a new anti-tank minefield in the Midi district of the northern Hajjah province in Yemen. The minefield was cordoned off and classified as hazardous due to its proximity to a residential area.

Will the Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity (TRIPP) set to connect Azerbaijan with Nakhijevan and Türkiye via Armenia help establish lasting peace and prosperity for all?  Interestingly, if the Washington Declaration speaks about restoration of all communications, with reciprocal benefits for Armenia, the spotlight has been about the TRIPP and only about it. This oversight misses a vital point necessary for lasting peace and stability in the region.

The 12th Summit of the Organization of Turkic States (OTS), held on 7 October 2025 in Gabala, Azerbaijan, marked a decisive stage in the evolution of integration within the Turkic world. Under the theme “Regional Peace and Security,” the summit, chaired by President Ilham Aliyev, brought together leaders from Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Türkiye, Uzbekistan, and observer states Hungary, Turkmenistan, and the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus. Gabala’s historical symbolism as a crossroads of the Caucasus and Central Asia reflected the OTS’s broader vision of unity, connectivity, and shared destiny.

Yesterday marked the fourth anniversary of the untimely passing of Armenian theatrical director turned peace activist Georgi Vanyan. He was 58.