Conflict and Peace

U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has told Washington's NATO allies that they would have to step up and assume greater responsibility for Europe's security since the U.S. no longer remains "primarily focused on the security of Europe". He said "stark strategic realities", such as U.S. border security issues and threats posed by China are a greater priority. Hegseth also said that a return to Ukraine's pre-2014 borders was unrealistic and the Trump administration does not see NATO membership for Kyiv as part of a solution to the war triggered by Russia's invasion.

A public opinion survey conducted by the Institute for Social Research and Analysis (ISSA) indicates widespread support for Georgia’s accession to the EU amongst Georgians with 86 per cent giving a positive answer. The same survey suggests that 74 per cent of the population support NATO. However, in what appears to be a contradictory finding, the survey concludes that a majority of 53 per cent back Georgia’s neutrality and think the country should keep out of all political and military alliances. “The survey on the public’s attitude towards ongoing processes in Georgia”  conducted with financial support from the Civil Society Fund and the UN Association of Georgia interviewed 2,000 adult respondents in Tbilisi and other cities, as well as in rural areas, using face-to-face interviews. The survey was conducted from January 18 to 30, 2025.

A public opinion survey conducted by the Institute for Social Research and Analysis (ISSA) indicates widespread support for Georgia’s accession to the EU amongst Georgians with 86 per cent giving a positive answer. The same survey suggests that 74 per cent of the population support NATO. However, in what appears to be a contradictory finding, the survey concludes that a majority of 53 per cent back Georgia’s neutrality and think the country should keep out of all political and military alliances. “The survey on the public’s attitude towards ongoing processes in Georgia”  conducted with financial support from the Civil Society Fund and the UN Association of Georgia interviewed 2,000 adult respondents in Tbilisi and other cities, as well as in rural areas, using face-to-face interviews. The survey was conducted from January 18 to 30, 2025.

Azerbaijan’s Foreign Ministry has declared the activities of both the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) and Russian House illegal in the country giving equal treatment to both the U.S. and Russia in relation to the operations of significant soft power organisations for both countries. USAID’s closure comes after comments by U.S. President Donald Trump , who told reporters that USAID is “run by a bunch of radical lunatics” and that his administration is “dealing with the situation.” Speculation is growing in Washington about the possibility of integrating USAID into the U.S. State Department’s structure. On the other hand, by expelling Russian House, Azerbaijan appears to be pressuring Russia into admitting responsibility for the downing of an AZAL passenger plane.

The High Representative and Vice-President of the European Commission Kaja Kallas, and Commissioner for Enlargement Marta Kos said in a statement on Friday that the Georgian Dream authorities have taken “further steps away from democratic standards” and called on them to “release all journalists, activists and political detainees.” The statement by Kallas and Kos says that the rushed adoption of amendments to the Code on Administrative Offences, Criminal Code and the Law on Assemblies and Manifestations by Georgian Dream will have far-reaching effects on Georgian society and will significantly undermine the rights to freedom of expression, freedom of assembly, and media freedom.

The policy decisions made by the new President of the United States, Donald Trump, have triggered tectonic shifts in the international political order. The post-World War II, U.S.-led system is unraveling before our eyes, and paradoxically, this process has been accelerated by the United States itself. The new Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, described the post-Cold War order, characterized by unipolarity, as an “anomaly” and stated, “It was a product of the end of the Cold War, but eventually, you were going to reach back to a point where you had a multipolar world, with multiple great powers in different parts of the planet.” The United States appears to have abandoned its post-World War II role as the leader of the free world, established through Pax Americana and its commitment to providing security for allies in Europe, East Asia, and beyond.

On the evening of 30 January, a Facebook post by the Independent Centre for Strategic Studies sparked outrage in Armenia. The post featured a 29-second video showing a group of men singing a 1972 Azerbaijani song with the chorus, Jan Karabakh, in Yerevan’s Republic Square. Though a song has been performed in the Armenian language with the same phrase actually in Karabakh, this short recent public rendition triggered a wave of anger on social media in the country.

In the midst of a political crisis, the Georgian government is pushing forward with a legislative package that would increase penalties for protest-related offences including years in prison in some cases.   Georgians have been rallying nightly since November, when the ruling Georgian Dream party, now in its fourth term in power, said it was suspending discussions related to membership in the European Union until 2028.

Police in Georgia arrested several anti-government protesters on Sunday as thousands of demonstrators demanding new parliamentary elections briefly blocked a motorway on the edge of the capital Tbilisi. Nika Melia, a leader of the country's largest opposition party, the Coalition for Change was among those arrested. He was later released on bail after detention for an administrative offence. Former Tbilisi mayor Gigi Ugulava, another prominent opposition figure was also arrested. Around thirty persons are reportedly still in detention.