Conflict and Peace

The ongoing protests in Georgia, which erupted one month after the parliamentary elections and triggered by the Georgian Dream government’s announcement to suspend the EU accession process, are sending ripples across the entire South Caucasus, and regional countries fear it could snowball into wider instability. For Baku, a stable Georgia has always been central to its regional strategy, serving as a reliable partner and a critical gateway to international markets. Consequently, for the  Azerbaijani leadership maintaining the status quo is critical to prevent chaos in a region that is already subject to strong volatility. At the same time, a Georgian government that would shift away from its Western partners may not necessarily be in Azerbaijan's long-term interest.

After the controversial victory of the ruling party in Georgia’s parliamentary elections on October 26, it initially appeared as though the opposition was in disarray. Many observers expected widespread protests and a dramatic confrontation between the two sides, but that did not materialise straight away. Instead, two days later, a solitary protest took place, drawing no more than 19,000 participants that appeared downtrodden and forlorn.

On December 30, Germany’s Der Spiegel, a publication often perceived as critical and biased against Azerbaijan – similar to many other German media outlets – reported on Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev’s reaction to Russia’s handling of a recent airplane crash crisis between the two countries. The publication noted, “Aliyev’s reaction is a testament to the increased weight of his country.” It continued, “Aliyev called the previous statements from the Russian side ‘nonsensical,’ ‘absurd,’ and ‘stupid.’ He spoke of attempts to cover up the situation and made it clear that with his apology, Putin had fulfilled only one of several conditions that Baku had demanded of Moscow.”

On Sunday December 8th the long-ruling Syrian president Bashar al-Assad fled the country, ultimately giving up power to the Syrian rebel group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS). The day marked the end of the 61 years long authoritarian regime, started by Bashar’s father, Hafez al-Assad. The regime scared the Syrian population with regular instances of torture, mysterious disappearances and unlawful killings in cases of resistance against the ruler. Since the 2011 ‘Arab Spring’ protests that resulted in the rise of repression and a civil war, Syria’s economic and political landscape was completely ruined. Even though the long-awaited Assad’s fall is a time of celebration for many around the world, it is only the beginning of a long, demanding journey to rebuild the country from scratch.

In an interview with Armenpress Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan discussed a number of critical aspects of the pending peace treaty with Azerbaijan. In his view, the Armenia-Azerbaijan peace treaty would gain superior legal force over Armenian laws and the topic of territorial demands would be closed forever. Prime Minister Pashinyan stated that the same would happen in Azerbaijan meaning that the signing of the peace treaty would practically dispel the concerns of both Armenia and Azerbaijan particularly in relation to their respective constitutions. The Prime Minister also noted that Armenia was not engaged in an arms race with any country but was acquiring armaments exclusively for defending Armenia’s borders and territorial integrity.

In an interview with Armenpress Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan discussed a number of critical aspects of the pending peace treaty with Azerbaijan. In his view, the Armenia-Azerbaijan peace treaty would gain superior legal force over Armenian laws and the topic of territorial demands would be closed forever. Prime Minister Pashinyan stated that the same would happen in Azerbaijan meaning that the signing of the peace treaty would practically dispel the concerns of both Armenia and Azerbaijan particularly in relation to their respective constitutions. The Prime Minister also noted that Armenia was not engaged in an arms race with any country but was acquiring armaments exclusively for defending Armenia’s borders and territorial integrity.

In an interview with Armenpress Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan discussed a number of critical aspects of the pending peace treaty with Azerbaijan. In his view, the Armenia-Azerbaijan peace treaty would gain superior legal force over Armenian laws and the topic of territorial demands would be closed forever. Prime Minister Pashinyan stated that the same would happen in Azerbaijan meaning that the signing of the peace treaty would practically dispel the concerns of both Armenia and Azerbaijan particularly in relation to their respective constitutions. The Prime Minister also noted that Armenia was not engaged in an arms race with any country but was acquiring armaments exclusively for defending Armenia’s borders and territorial integrity.

On 10 December, the Center for Analysis of International Relations (AIR Center), a Baku-based political think tank closely affiliated with the Azerbaijani government, held a high-level international conference titled “The Main Obstacle to a Peace Agreement Between Azerbaijan and Armenia.” The conference identified the territorial claims in Armenia’s constitution against Azerbaijan as the primary obstacle to peace.