They say that a week is a long time in politics, and the time since the European Political Community (EPC) was established in October 2022, may now seem like an eternity. The war in Ukraine, that triggered the establishment of the EPC, drags on, and continues to define Europe. Everything else has changed. When the EPC was established, many yawned, and saw it as yet another useless talking shop. But the idea of creating a framework that brings the 27 EU member states with other European countries – 20 at the last meeting – has increasing value. The attendance of the leaders of these 20 countries: Turkiye’s Erdogan, Ukraine’s Zelensky, UK’s Starmer, and others, has made its twice yearly meetings an important occasion. It is in one area: defence and security, where the biggest need of Europe currently is, and where the biggest potential of the EPC lays. The war in Ukraine, Russia’s malign intentions, and Trump’s reset of US foreign and security policy, focused minds. Europe had been sleeping! When it woke up it did what the EU does whenever it is faced with a problem, it threw money at it, and started a defence spending spree, that was overdue, but is not by itself enough. The EU27 may be a global economic force, but on their own they lack strategic clout. But if you add with them the other European countries such as Turkiye, UK, Ukraine, and even smaller ones such as Norway and Switzerland, it becomes a completely different preposition. Under the surface, these discussions are going on even more intensively. But the European Political Community offers a space for conversations – public and private between the leaders of wider Europe. The value of the Community is therefore significant. The next EPC summit will be in Armenia on 4 May 2026. It will be important for a number of reasons: It will be a summit that should contribute to Armenia-Azerbaijan peace; it is not clear at what level will Azerbaijan participate, but for sure this will be a high level delegation. It will be the first EPC summit in Russia’s back yard – Armenia is still a member of the EAEU, and even if only on paper, of CSTO. The summit will take place on the eve of crucial parliamentary elections in Armenia that will determine the fate of the country and the region. But in the background will be the issue of how wider Europe can work together on defence and security. This will take time – probably not less than a decade – but the work has started, and the EPC summit in Armenia will contribute to it. (click the image above to read the full Monday Commentary).

There was violence and mayhem across the Pakistani Indian Ocean province of Baluchistan on Friday and Saturday (30-31 January), as separatist insurgents attacked multiple government targets, in a co-ordinated attack in a number of towns and cities. Security forces conducted a large-scale counter-terrorism operation across Baluchistan following a series of coordinated attacks targeting multiple districts, killing civilians and security personnel, according to the Inter-Services Public Relations (ISPR) of the Pakistani government. "The operation, conducted over two days, resulted in the deaths of 133 insurgents, including suicide bombers, while 15 security personnel were killed during intense engagements", according to the government source. The attacks took place in Quetta, Mastung, Nushki, Dalbandin, Kharan, Panjgur, Tump, Gwadar and Pasni. "The assaults were aimed at destabilising peace in the province and undermining development by targeting law enforcement agencies and innocent civilians", the Pakistani government said.  The Pakistani government said the attacks were launched by “Indian sponsored Fitna al Hindustan,” a reference to the separatist Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA), saying intelligence reports confirmed the violence was orchestrated and directed by militant leaders operating from outside Pakistan, who were in direct communication with attackers during the assaults. The BLA also issued a statement earlier in the day, saying it had launched what it called “Operation Herof 2.0” and claiming responsibility for attacks in multiple locations. Pakistani officials describe BLA militants as Indian proxies, a charge New Delhi denies.