GCC

The war of the United States and Israel against Iran has entered its third week. Not a very long time some would say, but enough already to have changed the Middle East, not in any good way. As the BBC veteran Security Correspondent, Frank Gardner, put it, the war has put a shadow over the whole region. Nobody, except for Benyamin Netanyahu, wanted this war, not even Donald Trump. The war, unless it is stopped quickly may end up harming everybody. The way out is clear: De-escalate, negotiate, and re-build, even if as of today, the prospect for that appear distant. The only way out of the present crises is first through de-escalation. A cease fire may not be possible for weeks, but using diplomatic back channels the US and Iran may agree to de-escalate,  or to put it more crudely, stop shooting. It will be up to Trump to ensure that Netanyahu stops shooting too. Once de-escalation happens, the difficult process of negotiations can start again, focusing on the nuclear file and picking up from where discussions were left on 27 February. This is an agreement within reach – a non nuclear Iran in  return for the lifting of sanctions. Other possibilities are possible, and once a cease fire is agreed the EU and China can also be involved in the discussions. Finally, a process of rebuilding must start. The GCC have the money to do reconstruction of infrastructure quickly. Reputational damage to their Shangri-la image will take longer. Rebuilding Iran will be more challenging, given the scale of the destruction, and will require more money than Tehran has. Even as the bombs continue to fall, this issue needs to be considered. In the end no one really wanted this war, and no-one is going to benefit from it. It must be brought to an end as soon as possible, but the thinking of what happens after must start now.

The crises unleashed by the US-Israeli attack on Iran on 28 February is now in the second week. The Islamic Republic of Iran is taking a battering, but shows no sign of collapse. It has a chosen a new Supreme Leader – the son of the one killed  at the start of the US/Israeli attack, and is preparing for a long fight. There are ninety million Iranians, most of who are likely to rally around the flag, and defend their country. The crises has implications, for the whole region and the whole world, and we are just at the start. Ukraine has been pushed off the front pages. It is very easy for it now to be pushed off the agenda of European leaders. It must not. Regardless of the enormity of what is going  on in the Middle East, Europe – and that means the EU and other countries such as the UK, Norway and Switzerland – must remain focused on Ukraine, and in supporting the Ukrainian people in the face of Putin’s aggression. For Europe, Ukraine is an existential issue. The crises in the Middle East only makes the challenge that it presents more complicated, not less serious. Europe has already done a lot, but its efforts are yet not complete. It has provided generous financial support. Its embrace of Ukraine is not complete enough. Top of the agenda is Ukraine’s EU membership. One can always find reasons to delay this process. Many will be valid reasons. But there is one overarching reason why this must happen soon. It will seal Europe’s commitment to Ukraine, and it will fulfill Ukraine’s desire for a European future. Yes, it is a political reason, but Ukraine is first and foremost a political challenge, one that Europe must win. The crises in the Middle East is not a distraction. It is real enough, and will also have huge implications for Europe. But Europe has less tools at its disposal. It does not have the military means to be involved independently. The relationship with the GCC countries is not strong enough. Its influence on Iran is at best modest. Its relationship with both the US and Israel is ambivalent, and evolving. But Europe cannot remain a bystander. What will happen in the Middle East will have consequences – be it in politics, security, energy or economics. Europe must up its diplomatic game in the Middle East. This effort must cut through the established bureaucracies. It must find away of pooling the resources, and knowledge, of the EU member states, EU institutions and non- EU European countries such as the UK. It must find a way of working with key partners like Turkey. This effort must be fast and flexible, and can start with the appointment of a heavyweight at the head of this effort – someone who can talk easily with Merz, Macron, Stammer, Erdogan, von der Leyen and other European leaders. Diplomacy is the only way out of the present Middle East crises. Europe cannot afford to be sidelined in this. It must lead. With Ukraine and the Middle East in turmoil, European resources, and ingenuity, will be stretched to the limit. But Europe does not have a choice. It must engage with both. Differently, but with an equal sense of urgency and purpose.