The finalization of preliminary data from all 2,005 polling stations following Armenia’s parliamentary elections has yielded a deceptively straightforward result. While the ruling Civil Contract party captured 49.81% of the popular vote, falling just short of an absolute majority among the electorate, the cold mechanics of the d'Hondt method and the natural elimination of minor lists under the updated threshold transformed this plurality into a commanding 60.95% legislative majority. Civil Contract has organically secured 64 out of the 105 baseline mandates, easily crossing the constitutionally required 54% threshold for a "stable majority." By completely eliminating the prospect of a second-round runoff or the necessity of building a coalition, this outcome allows Nikol Pashinyan to retain the premiership and form a unilateral executive. The remaining seats have been distributed between a fragmented opposition: the "Strong Armenia" bloc secured 29 mandates, while the "Armenia" bloc obtained 12. The Prosperous Armenia Party failed to cross the updated threshold, settling at 4.00% before final ballot adjustments.

The rise of Péter Magyar has transformed Hungarian politics from a stagnant contest into a genuine struggle over the country’s geopolitical future. Once associated with the orbit of Viktor Orbán’s ruling system, Magyar now presents himself as the figure who can bring Hungary back into the European mainstream. His message is direct: Hungary must strengthen its position within the European Union and secure its place in the West, “where it has always belonged.” Yet, no matter how compelling this western pivot sounds, Magyar would inherit a state whose institutions and energy system remain deeply entangled with Russia. For years, Orbán silently intensified relationships with Moscow. Hungary has benefited from cheap gas and oil contracts, with Russian crude making up 93% of Hungary’s oil imports in 2025, representing a 32% increase from 2021. Another key project is the Paks II nuclear power plant, agreed upon in 2014 by Viktor Orbán and Vladimir Putin, with the Russian Rosatom acting as the main contractor. Lastly, the leaked conversation between Putin and Orbán, as well as Péter Szijjártó’s, Hungary’s Minister of Foreign Affairs, calls to Sergey Lavrov, his Russian counterpart during breaks in EU Council meetings, have resulted in Fidesz being viewed by many Hungarians (and others) as catering to Russian interests. (Read the full article by clicking on the image above.)

As part of our "Armenia Season" on commonspace.eu, journalist Alex Vergé , writing from Yerevan, reflects on the forthcoming parliamentary elections in Armenia. He says that "the attention around the elections, in particular from foreign powers, highlights the geopolitical stakes. Russia wishes to discredit the current administration as a means to safeguard its position as Armenia’s preponderant partner. The EU, in turn, will be looking to avoid a repeat of developments in Georgia since 2024, where democratic backsliding has led to a significant deterioration of relations and effectively halted the country’s accession process." He adds, that " the outcome of the vote remains very uncertain at this stage". A public opinion survey commissioned by the International Republican Institute in early February 2026 indicated that 24% of respondents said they would vote for Pashinyan and Civil Contract if an election were held the following week, with the next highest level of support expressed at around 9% for Karapetyan and the Strong Armenia Alliance, and 30% of respondents stating they were undecided. It appears that momentum may be gathering behind Pashinyan, who has been on the campaign trail for several weeks already. Polling by the local news outlet EVNReport in February-March indicated that the prime minister’s approval ratings stood at 47%, up from 36% based on a first wave of polling in January-February. Others remain more measured in their assessments. Eric Hacopian, the leading political commentator at the independent local news outlet CIVILNET, says that while it is clear that the administration has the largest minority support, it is equally clear that they do not have more than half of voters’ support. While this raises the possibility of the need for coalition partners to secure a parliamentary majority, Hacopian suggests that the confrontational campaigning approach of the ruling party will likely have alienated potential partners. In any case, the elections are set to mark a major democratic moment in Armenia’s history. Michael Zoyan, the historian and former MP, pushing back on arguments that the Pashinyan administration is overseeing democratic backsliding, stressed that Armenia was still a “young democracy.” Like many other democratic countries, he added, it faces the challenge of balancing between upholding democratic freedoms and the need to address challenges to democratic governance. (Click image to read the full commentary).

Lebanon is on the brink. Yesterday, Wednesday 8 April, Israel conducted a vicious attack on civilian targets across the Lebanese capital, Beirut. Hundreds of people were killed. Thousands lost their homes, adding to the hundreds of thousands already displaced in the last three weeks. An already fragile Lebanon is now on the brink. The international community - and especially Europe - must now step up to save Lebanon. In this op-ed for commonspace.eu, Alexandra Dumitrescu says  Israel has made claims that it intends to continue its occupation and possibly even annex southern Lebanon. Israel's finance minister, Bezalel Smotrich, said on 23 March that Israel should extend its border with Lebanon up to the Litani ​River. Since then, all of the Litani’s main bridge crossings have been bombed and severely damaged, if not fully destroyed. As Maha Yahya, the Director of the Malcolm H. Kerr Carnegie Middle East Center, put it in her article for Foreign Affairs, “By joining the battle, Hezbollah inextricably tied Lebanon’s fate to the larger war. But it is also clear that Israel is using the war and Hezbollah’s provocations to justify a much larger—and potentially devastating—assault on Lebanon itself.” (Click the image to read her op-ed in full).