Menu
Latest
Menu
Latest
Commentary

A serious election, in which voters have clear options

8 May 2026
Stepan Grigoryan

 This article is part of the "Armenia Season", featuring on commonspace.eu from 1 May -15 June 2026.

It was first published on Armenia Elections Monitor - a LINKS Europe initiative - on 8 May 2026

The registration process for parties and blocs participating in the elections has been completed. A total of 19 political forces—two blocs and 17 parties—will participate in the election race, which begins on May 8 and concludes on June 5. The electoral threshold is set at 4% for parties and 8% for blocs.

Although the official campaign starts on May 8 according to electoral law, many parties de facto launched their campaigns long ago, at least since January of this year.

Key Contenders:

The following forces have a realistic chance of entering the National Assembly of Armenia:

  • "Civil Contract" Party: Led by Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan.
  • "Strong Armenia" Party: Led by Samvel Karapetyan, an oligarch based in Russia.
  • "Armenia" Bloc: Led by former President Robert Kocharyan.
  • "Prosperous Armenia" Party: Led by Gagik Tsarukyan, an oligarch and close friend of Alexander Lukashenko.

It appears that administrative resources and financial capabilities grant these forces a significant advantage. Furthermore, the primary political struggle is unfolding between Nikol Pashinyan on one side and three pro-Russian forces—those of Karapetyan, Kocharyan, and Tsarukyan—on the other. Effectively, a bipolar model has emerged in Armenian domestic politics.

Potential Challengers and Alternatives:

With an active campaign, seats in Parliament could also be secured by parties with more modest financial resources but compelling political programs—forces capable of offering alternative, constructive agendas rather than focusing solely on criticizing the ruling party.

As of early May 2026, two additional political forces may overcome the 4% threshold:

  1. "Wings of Unity" Party: Led by Arman Tatoyan, the former Human Rights Defender (Ombudsman) of Armenia.
  2. "Republic" Party: Led by Aram Sargsyan, a former Prime Minister of Armenia.

Unexpected surprises are also possible.

Current Outlook:

Current sociological research indicates that Nikol Pashinyan and his party hold a higher rating than other political forces. In other words, if the elections were held in early May, Pashinyan would come in first.

However, it is difficult to say whether he would secure more than 50% of the vote. There is a visible shift in public sentiment due to several factors, which suggests that while Pashinyan might win, he may not achieve an absolute majority. One thing is certain: we are heading toward a very serious election.

Source:

This article is part of the "Armenia Season", featuring on commonspace.eu from 1 May -15 June 2026.

This commentary first appeared on the 8 May issue of the Armenian Election Monitor 2026 newsletter. Dr Stepan Grigoryan, Chairman of the Board of the Analytical Centre on Globalization and Regional Cooperation, is a respected analyst and opinion-shaper in Yerevan. He is also a member of the Armenia-Azerbaijan Expert Strategic Platform, a LINKS Europe initiative to support dialogue in the South Caucasus. Follow Dr. Grigoryan on YouTube, Facebook, and LinkedIn. Follow the Analytical Centre on Globalization and Regional Cooperation on their website, on Facebook, and on YouTube.  

Related articles

Editor's choice
News
COP 17 in Armenia
Trending

COP 17 in Armenia

22 October 2026
Armenia is currently hosting the COP17 conference of the Convention on Biological Diversity, which began earlier this week (19 October) and will run until 30 October, bringing around 15,000 participants from 196 different countries to Yerevan. At a leaders' summit held as part of COP17, Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan expressed realistic ambitions: “We are halfway towards achieving these goals (Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework), and we must honestly acknowledge that we are not yet moving in the right direction. Our task now is not to make new promises, but to fulfil the commitments we have already made.” Pashinyan pointed towards Armenia's own records, noting that the whitefish stock in Lake Sevan has increased substantially in the last ten years. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian and Georgian Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze also addressed the summit, with Turkiye sending its agriculture minister. However, there were no reports of Azerbaijani representatives attending. The conference has given Yerevan a valuable international platform, yet the absence of Azerbaijan is likely to be read as a sign that the peace process in the South Caucasus has not yet been translated into wider regional cooperation. The leaders' summit was opened by Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, who stressed that hosting the conference was a great honour for Armenia. He expressed hope that it would 'be productive and contribute to protecting our planet's biodiversity'. 'We – the citizens of Armenia, the government, state authorities and local governments – owe a debt to our nature,' the prime minister said. He noted that the international community had already developed the concept of 'living in harmony with nature’ and adopted the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework in 2022, setting out goals and specific targets to be achieved by 2030. 'We are halfway towards achieving these goals, and we must honestly acknowledge that we are not yet moving in the right direction. Our task now is not to make new promises, but to fulfil the commitments we have already made,' Nikol Pashinyan said. The COP17 conference is expected to adopt a declaration at leaders' level. More than 30 documents are scheduled for discussion. If approved, the commitments set out in them will become legally binding on countries that are parties to the Convention on Biological Diversity.”
Editor's choice
News
Landmines present to the European Union both a contradiction and a dilemma
Trending

Landmines present to the European Union both a contradiction and a dilemma

20 October 2026
Finland’s decision to buy one million landmines creates a serious contradiction in the policy of the European Union, and is symbolic of a bigger dilemma facing European countries as they get used to the need to acquire “hard” power to face an increasing threat from Russia. Finland is seeking to acquire one million anti-personnel mines at a cost of 100 million euros. Finland, together with Poland, Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia last year abandoned the Ottawa agreement, the international framework that bans the use of anti-personnel mines, which the EU had been instrumental in establishing and supporting. All five countries cite the threat from Moscow as the reason. Colonel Riku Mikkonen of the Army Command told Finland’s national news agency STT that officials are now gathering information from suppliers regarding the deal, the AFP news agency reports. Helsinki would like domestic manufacturers to supply the mines, with contracts signed by the end of 2027 and production up and running by 2028. “It would be useful in many ways if Finnish companies produced the anti-personnel mines in Finland,” Mikkonen said. About half a dozen Finnish firms qualify, he told STT. “However, at this stage, buying the mines from abroad is not totally ruled out,” he added. LANDMINES PROVIDE THE EU WITH BOTH A CONTRADICTION, AND A DILEMMA Eliminating landmine contamination worldwide is one of the EU’s main soft power postures, and it basks in its record as the biggest funder of anti-landmine action in the world. But the fact that 5 of its 27 member states  have now left the Ottawa Treaty dents the EU moral high ground. It is a contradiction that is too big and important to be ignored. It also presents the European Union with a deeper dilemma. The threat from Russia is changing what the EU has stood for decades, namely a force for good able to mobilise its considerable soft power for the greater good of humanity. How the Union will implement this change will define its future. In the meantime landmines have not become any less lethal, benign, or unimportant. They remain in many parts of the world a major threat to life, an impediment to prosperity, and a potential trigger to further conflict. The 22 EU members states that still adhere to the Ottawa treaty must regroup, and be more assertive in their quest against anti-personnel land mines. All the reasons why they supported the Ottawa treaty in the first place still exist. The message must be clear: NO TO LANDMINES!

Popular

Editor's choice
Interview
Thursday Interview: Murad Muradov
Trending

Thursday Interview: Murad Muradov

15 January 2026
Today, commonspace.eu starts a new regular weekly series. THURSDAY INTERVIEW, conducted by Lauri Nikulainen, will host  persons who are thinkers, opinion shapers, and implementors in their countries and spheres. We start the series with an interview with Murad Muradov, a leading person in Azerbaijan's think tank community. He is also the first co-chair of the Action Committee for a new Armenian-Azerbaijani Dialogue. Last September he made history by being the first Azerbaijani civil society activist to visit Armenia after the 44 day war, and the start of the peace process. Speaking about this visit Murad Muradov said: "My experience was largely positive. My negative expectations luckily didn’t play out. The discussions were respectful, the panel format bringing together experts from Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Turkey was particularly valuable during the NATO Rose-Roth Seminar in Yerevan, and media coverage, while varied in tone, remained largely constructive. Some media outlets though attempted to represent me as more of a government mouthpiece than an independent expert, which was totally misleading.  Overall, I see these initiatives as important steps in rebuilding trust and normalising professional engagement. The fact that soon a larger Azerbaijani civil society visits to Armenia followed, reinforces the sense that this process is moving in the right direction." (click the image to read the interview in full)
Murad Muradov
Lauri Nikulainen interviews Murad Muradov