Conflict and Peace

The US has twice sided with Russia in votes at the United Nations to mark the third anniversary of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, highlighting the Trump administration's change of stance on the war. First the US opposed a European-drafted resolution condemning Moscow's actions and supporting Ukraine's territorial integrity, voting the same way as Russia and countries including North Korea and Belarus at the UN General Assembly (UNGA) in New York. Then the US drafted and voted for a resolution at the UN Security Council which called for an end to the conflict but contained no criticism of Russia. The Security Council passed the resolution but two key US allies, the UK and France, abstained after their attempts to amend the wording were vetoed.

When Nikol Pashinyan embarked on a march from Gyumri to Yerevan at the end of March 2018 to prevent then President Serzh Sargsyan from clinging onto power, few believed he would succeed. Pashinyan was joined by a small group of allies as they made their way to the Armenian capital. Against all odds, Pashinyan’s gambit worked and is the country's premier today. For those that have followed his career to date, that shouldn't have come as a surprise.

The Italian Senate has adopted a resolution supporting the Armenia-Azerbaijan peace process, calling on the government of Italy to strengthen its commitment for both countries to abandon the use of force in the future and maintain peaceful, constructive and open dialogue. The resolution titled ‘On Initiatives to Support the Peace Process Between Armenia and Azerbaijan’ was adopted unanimously on the 19th of February.

The occupation and ethnic cleansing of Azerbaijan’s Karabakh region and seven surrounding districts in the early 1990s by the armed forces of Armenia involved immeasurable atrocities and extreme violence. Realizing that more than 700,000 people in the region would not easily flee their homes, Armenian leaders resorted to force. The ethnic cleansing carried out by the Armenian armed forces resulted in numerous humanitarian tragedies over the years, but the most devastating was the massacre of civilians in Khojaly, a town in Azerbaijan’s Karabakh region, in the bitterly cold morning of February 26, 1992.

The United States and Russia agreed in Riyadh on Tuesday to press ahead with efforts to end the war in Ukraine, a US official said, as Kyiv and its European allies watched anxiously from the sidelines and Moscow raised a major new demand. US State Department spokesperson Tammy Bruce said the two sides agreed to appoint "respective high-level teams to begin working on a path to ending the conflict in Ukraine as soon as possible in a way that is enduring, sustainable, and acceptable to all sides".

Armenian passport control at the Bagratashen border checkpoint was confused and chaotic, quite unlike the experience on the other side at Sadakhlo in Georgia. Instead of the few minutes it should have taken, it took over twenty. It never had in the past. Perhaps preparations for a visit by the European Union delegation taking place just a few days later to develop a much anticipated Visa Liberalisation Action Plan (VLAP) had preoccupied them.

A presidential election held this weekend in the breakaway Georgian region of Abkhazia produced no clear winner, setting up a second round between the top two candidates. According to Abkhazia's electoral commission acting President Badra Gunba took 46per cent of the vote, while opposition leader Adgur Ardzinba received almost 37 per cent. The Election Commission confirmed  that Gunba, Moscow’s favourite candidate, failed to cross the threshold of 50 percent. The decisive second round featuring Gunba and Ardzinba is expected to be held by March 1. The EU reiterated its support for Georgia's territorial integrity and sovereignty in a statement saying it does not recognise the constitutional and legal framework in which the "so-called presidential elections in Abkhazia" took place.

Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky has called for the creation of an "army of Europe" to guard against Russia as he suggested the US may no longer come to the continent's aid. Speaking at the Munich Security Conference on Saturday, he also said that Ukraine would "never accept deals made behind our backs without our involvement" after US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin agreed to start peace talks.

Abkhazia, a territory that broke away from Georgia in 1993, is holding early presidential elections today following the ousting of the previous president, Aslan Bzhania, at the end of November 2024. The outcome of the elections could determine the future trajectory of the region’s foreign policy and its relationship to Moscow. Bzhamia was forced to resign after thousands of supporters of opposition leader Adgur Ardzinba forcibly occupied the presidential palace and parliament building. Ardzinba is contesting these elections with his main rival being former Vice President Badra Gunba who is supported by Moscow. According to pre-election polls, Gunba is projected to receive 42.3 percent of the vote, while Ardzinba is projected to receive just 27.3 percent of the vote. The other three candidates are Shamil Ardzinba, Oleg Bartsits, and Adgur Khurkhumal.