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Opinion: The South Caucasus is no longer Russia’s backyard

Opinion: The South Caucasus is no longer Russia’s backyard

For decades, Russia has stood at the centre of the South Caucasus’ security order. No peace deal, no war settlement, no major infrastructure project could be imagined without Moscow’s involvement. Yet this year, for the first time in Azerbaijan’s modern history, that assumption has been openly challenged. A series of diplomatic clashes between Baku and Moscow, followed last week by the U.S.-mediated summit in Washington, show that Azerbaijan is willing to confront Russia more directly than ever before, and that the South Caucasus may now be shifting away from Moscow at an accelerated pace.
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Opinion
Opinion: Turkish policy in the South Caucasus and relations with Russia

Opinion: Turkish policy in the South Caucasus and relations with Russia

Turkey-Russia relations are typically based on compartmentalization. They simultaneously compete and cooperate in various regions, separating the areas in which their interests are overlapping from those where they are in competition. This concept was the base of their competing relations in Syria until the demise of Assad regime in 2024, and mutual interactions in post-Gaddafi Libya.

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News
China and the EU agree on climate change action in Beijing summit but disagree on trade and Ukraine

China and the EU agree on climate change action in Beijing summit but disagree on trade and Ukraine

China and the European Union have issued a joint call to action on climate change during an otherwise tense bilateral summit in Beijing on Thursday 24 July but major disagreements remain over trade and the war in Ukraine.  The two sides issued a joint statement on climate change, urging more emission cuts and greater use of green technology and affirming their support for the Paris Climate Agreement as well as calling for strong action at the upcoming COP30 climate summit in Brazil. European Council President António Costa called on China to use its influence over Russia to bring an end to the war in Ukraine, a long-standing plea from European leaders that is likely to fall once again on deaf ears.
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UK, Canada and majority of EU Member States condemn Israel for ‘inhumane killing’ and say the war in Gaza ‘must end now’.

UK, Canada and majority of EU Member States condemn Israel for ‘inhumane killing’ and say the war in Gaza ‘must end now’.

Israel’s isolation is increasing as twenty eight countries including the United Kingdom and a majority of Member States of the European Union issued a joint statement on Monday 21 July saying the war in Gaza “must end now” and condemning Israel over 'inhumane killing' of Gaza civilians seeking aid. The foreign ministers of countries, also including Australia, Canada, the Netherlands, France, Italy and Japan, said “the suffering of civilians in Gaza has reached new depths.” The statement described as “horrifying” the recent deaths of over 800 Palestinians who were seeking aid, according to the figures released by Gaza’s Health Ministry and the U.N. human rights office.
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Opinion
U.S. Interest in Armenia-Azerbaijan Transit Sparks Confusion

U.S. Interest in Armenia-Azerbaijan Transit Sparks Confusion

For the first time in 31 years of the Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict, the situation feels more unpredictable than ever. In the past, there was a grim certainty that another war would erupt just as it did in September 2020 while peace, on the other hand, always seemed distant. In recent weeks, comments from U.S. President Donald Trump that it was almost a done deal simply solicited disagreement among analysts and political commentators.  As if that wasn’t confusion enough, and although both Baku and Yerevan have said that the 10 July meeting between the leaders in Abu Dhabi was constructive, another issue has emerged unexpectedly to distract and deflect attention.
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Monday Commentary
The “New Middle East” is not so new after all!

The “New Middle East” is not so new after all!

Last month, TIME magazine ran a cover story entitled “A New Middle East Is Unfolding before our eyes”. “The middle of what? East of where?”, asks Tim Marshall in his seminal book ‘Prisoners of Geography’, before quickly reminding us that “The Middle East is one of those places where the past is now”.
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News
A shortened EU-China summit on Thursday will be a test for both sides

A shortened EU-China summit on Thursday will be a test for both sides

European Council President, Antonio Costa, Commission President, Ursula von der Leyen, and EU High Representative for Foreign and Security Policy, Kaya Kallas, will travel to Beijing next week to participate in the EU-China summit on Thursday (24 July). The summit has already been cut from two days to one, reflecting an increasing realisation on both sides that the chance of making progress on many issues in the bilateral agenda is small. The summit on 24 July, coincides with the 50th anniversary of relations between China and the EU, and no doubt China will want to throw a party. Chinese President, Xi Jinping, and prime minister, Li Qiange, are expected to participate in the summit. But the feeling in Brussels is that in the fifty years China had failed to create a level playing field. Whilst Chinese companies, academics and individuals had a free hand in the open European system across the continent, European companies struggled to exist , let alone compete, in China. In a key speech in 2023, van der Leyen spoke about the need of the EU to “de risk” its ties with China. But the issue that has really marred relations is Ukraine. China has failed to understand the significance of the situation in Ukraine for Europe. Chinese support for the Russian position diplomatically, as well as more tangibly, has cast a serious cloud over relations. This was seen clearly a few days ago in a four hour meeting in Brussels, between Kallas and Chinese foreign minister, Wang Yi, described as being “respectful, but tense”.
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Japanese experts are training Ukrainian teams in landmine detection

Japanese experts are training Ukrainian teams in landmine detection

This week, a team of Japanese professionals conducted a landmine detection training programme for Ukrainian demining teams using equipment supplied by Japan. This initiative is intended to support Ukraine's ongoing efforts to clear explosive remnants of war in the context of Russia's ongoing invasion.
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Opinion
Peace Has Never Been This Close Between Armenia and Azerbaijan

Peace Has Never Been This Close Between Armenia and Azerbaijan

After a long hiatus following the Brussels summit facilitated by Charles Michel, then President of the European Council, in July 2023, the leaders of Armenia and Azerbaijan met on July 10, 2025, in Abu Dhabi, the capital of the United Arab Emirates (UAE), to advance their peace process. Although they had met on several occasions over the past two years, those encounters took place on the sidelines of international gatherings, with substantive negotiations typically conducted by official representatives behind closed doors. The Abu Dhabi meeting was particularly significant as it marked the first bilateral summit in recent years organized directly by the two sides, without the mediation of a major power.
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Trump threatens Russia with tariffs if peace deal is not reached within 50 days

Trump threatens Russia with tariffs if peace deal is not reached within 50 days

US President Donald Trump on Monday threatened Russia with steep tariffs unless a peace deal is reached within 50 days and announced a rejuvenated pipeline for American weapons to reach Ukraine, hardening his stance toward Moscow after months of frustration about unsuccessful negotiations for ending the war. The latest steps reflect an evolving approach from the Republican president, who promised to swiftly resolve the war started by Russian President Vladimir Putin when he invaded Ukraine three years ago. In the past, Trump focused his criticism on Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, whom he described as unwilling to compromise, but more recently has expressed growing irritation towards Putin. In addition, Trump said European allies would buy “billions and billions” of dollars of U.S. military equipment to be transferred to Ukraine, replenishing the besieged country’s supplies of weapons. He made the announcement in the Oval Office alongside NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte.