Diplomacy

Since the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh War, negotiations between Armenia and Azerbaijan have gone through a series of ups and downs that often resemble a rollercoaster. Periods of heightened optimism have been followed by abrupt breaks in talks, as seen in late 2022 and 2023. After Armenia and Azerbaijan signed a joint statement in December 2023, early 2024 brought renewed hope to the process. In March-April 2024, Yerevan accepted Azerbaijani demands concerning four villages along the northern part of their shared border. Azerbaijan announced its intention to make the COP29 United Nations Climate Summit in Azerbaijan in November 2024 a “COP of peace,” fostering a growing belief that an agreement might be reached by that date. However, the new or reinforced sine qua non-preconditions by President Aliyev—such as amendments to the Armenian constitution and the dissolution of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) Minsk Group established to seek a peaceful solution to the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict—have significantly dampened expectations that even a framework agreement outlining basic principles could be signed by the end of 2024.

Finland and Morocco discussed cooperation in water, renewable energy, green hydrogen, cybersecurity and telecommunications in the Finnish capital Helsinki on Tuesday (6 August).  Finnish Foreign Minister Elina Valtonen received her Moroccan counterpart Nasser Bourita, who is on a working visit to Finland. Both countries see opportunities in digitalisation, especially in cybersecurity and 5G networks.

The Council of the European Union decided on Monday (5 August) to impose restrictive measures against a further 28 individuals for their role in the ongoing internal repression and human rights violations in Belarus. These sanctions are adopted ahead of the fourth anniversary of the fraudulent presidential elections in August 2020. 

France is urging its citizens to leave Lebanon. An update on the French foreign ministry's website warns of "the risks of military escalation in the Middle East" and advises people to book another commercial flight to France "as soon as possible" while flights are still available. The ministry also reiterated its "urgent" advice against travelling to Lebanon.

In the lead-up to this year's NATO Summit in Washington D.C., it was uncertain whether Armenian Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan and Azerbaijani Foreign Minister Jeyhun Bayramov would meet. However, a last-minute announcement confirmed that they would, albeit not in a bilateral format, but with U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken. Expectations were low, given disagreements over Azerbaijani demands for Armenia to change its constitution and the United States now apparently pushing its own vision for unblocking trade and communication in the region. Nonetheless, Blinken again emphasised that the two were close to reaching a deal. The foreign ministers issued identical scant three-paragraph statements which at least referred to a “historic agreement.”

The European Union has condemned several waves of large-scale attacks on several Ukrainian cities carried out by Russia on Monday (8 July).