Diplomacy

Even though many believed a second Trump presidency was unlikely or even impossible, his re-election last November demonstrated how many people prefer to favour dreams over reality, transforming fears into self-fulfilling prophecies. This is a situation that can best describe how Track II diplomacy in the Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict has been conducted over time. As a result, there is little to no agreement between the sides, the blatantly obvious is ignored, and meetings become performative at best or simply a continuation of the conflict at worst.

European Union leaders agreed to significantly boost defense spending to ensure Europe’s security and voiced near-unanimous support for Ukraine at an extraordinary meeting on Thursday, after the United States dramatically pulled back its assistance to the continent in a historic upending of transatlantic relations. At the summit in Brussels, 26 European leaders signed a text calling for a peace deal that respects “Ukraine’s independence, sovereignty and territorial integrity,” while including Ukraine in the negotiations. Hungary abstained.

The European Union is prepared to take further action against the Georgian government, including sanctions, to hold those responsible for violence against protesters accountable, according to a statement by the EU press service on Wednesday. In the statement, the EU said it has taken into account the decision by the Baltic states to impose sanctions against Georgian Dream on the basis that the ruling party's actions are aimed at violating fundamental rights and freedoms and further reducing the space for civil society to operate.

61 per cent of Georgians believe that the country’s integration into the European Union would have a positive impact on Georgian-Abkhaz and Georgian-Ossetian relations according to a new study by the Caucasus Research Resource Center on conflicts in Georgia. Additionally, 56 per cent think that NATO membership would also be a positive development. When it comes to Georgia’s rapprochement with Russia, 31 per cent of respondents believe it would have positive consequences. The study, “Conflicts in Georgia: Perceptions, Attitudes, and Expectations”, was commissioned by the Institute for Nationalism and Conflict Studies, the Levan Mikeladze Foundation, and the Caucasian House and conducted by the Caucasus Research Resource Center in 2024.

The past five years have marked a growing Gulf economic presence in the South Caucasus. Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have expanded their regional footprint through equity investments in Azerbaijan and Georgia’s transport and renewable energy sectors. Armenia has been a weak link in interregional chains due to conflict with Azerbaijan and its isolation from regional connectivity frameworks. Yet recently, Yerevan managed to establish profitable trade links to the Gulf, largely thanks to Western sanctions on Russia. The South Caucasus trio sees financial flows from the Gulf as necessary for successful economic diversification. For the Gulf countries, the South Caucasus provides an alternative market for strategic investments, which aligns with their long-term goals of projecting geo-economic influence and boosting trade.

Maka Botchorishvili, the Foreign Minister of Georgia, on Wednesday praised her country’s “strategic partnership” with Turkey as being “based on friendship and strong mutual respect”, following a meeting with her Turkish counterpart Hakan Fidan in Ankara. In her comments, she highlighted the partnership was “further reinforced by continuous political dialogue and high-level engagements”. 

Speaking at a press conference after the 4th Meeting of EU-Armenia Parliamentary Partnership Committee in Yerevan, MEP Nils Ušakovs said that the process of Armenia’s accession to the European Union will require significant reforms over a long time. Ušakovs, co-chair of the committee, said that the reforms will strengthen the country and enable it to make more confident decisions regarding its future.

The US has twice sided with Russia in votes at the United Nations to mark the third anniversary of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, highlighting the Trump administration's change of stance on the war. First the US opposed a European-drafted resolution condemning Moscow's actions and supporting Ukraine's territorial integrity, voting the same way as Russia and countries including North Korea and Belarus at the UN General Assembly (UNGA) in New York. Then the US drafted and voted for a resolution at the UN Security Council which called for an end to the conflict but contained no criticism of Russia. The Security Council passed the resolution but two key US allies, the UK and France, abstained after their attempts to amend the wording were vetoed.

When Nikol Pashinyan embarked on a march from Gyumri to Yerevan at the end of March 2018 to prevent then President Serzh Sargsyan from clinging onto power, few believed he would succeed. Pashinyan was joined by a small group of allies as they made their way to the Armenian capital. Against all odds, Pashinyan’s gambit worked and is the country's premier today. For those that have followed his career to date, that shouldn't have come as a surprise.