Diplomacy

When I moved to Yerevan in October 1998, it was rare to hear much positive conversation about the future of Armenia or Karabakh. That had also been the case when I visited the country on a research trip earlier that June. Many were already tired of the conflict and few seemed enthused with a new regime that had just come to power after the ousting the country's first president earlier that year. Levon Ter-Petrosyan had chosen to resign following a palace coup staged by his inner circle opposed to a concessionary peace deal with Azerbaijan. They thought the deal proposed by a troika of France, Russia, and the United States was a betrayal. Ter-Petrosyan warned that it might well be the best Armenia could ever hope for.

The EU Special Representative for the South Caucasus Magdalena Grono paid her first official visits to Armenia and Azerbaijan from 7 to 11 January 2025. According to the official X account of the EUSR for the South Caucasus, valued in-depth exchanges of views were held with the leaderships and officials in both capitals on how best to advance peace, normalisation efforts and regional cooperation. The EU Special Representative also referred to the need to develop bilateral relations between the EU and the two countries. The EU Special Representative also stated she had exchanges with local civic societies but did not make specific references to any organisations.

The year 2025 marks a pivotal moment for Turkmenistan as it commemorates three decades of its established status as a neutral state, coinciding with the International Year of Peace and Trust – a worldwide initiative championed by Turkmenistan itself. This dual celebration underscores the nation’s enduring influence in fostering international peace, development, and diplomatic harmony.

The Armenia-Azerbaijan peace process began the new year with a bombshell revelation: a video recording from the first congress of the “Yerkrapah” Volunteer Union in July 1993. The footage features Armenia’s first president, Levon Ter-Petrosyan, delivering a speech on the “success” of Armenia’s “national liberation movement.” The speech, along with the reaction of Vazgen Sargsyan – leader of “Yerkrapah” and Armenia's Defense Minister in the early 1990s – holds significant political, legal, and humanitarian implications for the ongoing peace negotiations between the two countries.

Armenia's government has approved legislation calling for the country to launch the process that will open the path to discussions with Brussels for eventual membership in the European Union. A bill was drafted in response to a petition that called for the country to submit an application to join the EU. Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan emphasised to the cabinet on Thursday that the public should not expect a rapid accession to the EU, and that it would in any case require public approval. “Adopting the law doesn’t literally mean Armenia is joining the EU because that cannot be done through a law or government decision, the decision on that can only be made through a referendum,” Pashinyan said after the decision.

Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, in an interview with Armenpress, responded to harsh statements made by Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev, and appealed for de-escalation saying that Armenia will remain committed to a strategy for the implementation of the agenda of peace.

The new Syrian government may have come to power last month brandishing a jihadist label, but its leader Ahmad al-Sharaa, also known as Abu Mohammed al Jilani is determined to emphasise its inclusive approach particularly as regards the country’s large Christian population. The Baathist regime of al-Assad had for long instilled a fear within this community in case there is an Islamist victory. Moving to quash this fear, which had also been predominant in Western circles, Ahmed al Shara met on New Year's Eve with leaders from the Christian communities, to wish them a merry Christmas and a peaceful New Year and to assure them that the new Syria will be inclusive. Among those present were leaders from the Franciscan Friars of the Holy Land who under an old catholic tradition lead Christians across the Levant.

The ongoing protests in Georgia, which erupted one month after the parliamentary elections and triggered by the Georgian Dream government’s announcement to suspend the EU accession process, are sending ripples across the entire South Caucasus, and regional countries fear it could snowball into wider instability. For Baku, a stable Georgia has always been central to its regional strategy, serving as a reliable partner and a critical gateway to international markets. Consequently, for the  Azerbaijani leadership maintaining the status quo is critical to prevent chaos in a region that is already subject to strong volatility. At the same time, a Georgian government that would shift away from its Western partners may not necessarily be in Azerbaijan's long-term interest.

After the controversial victory of the ruling party in Georgia’s parliamentary elections on October 26, it initially appeared as though the opposition was in disarray. Many observers expected widespread protests and a dramatic confrontation between the two sides, but that did not materialise straight away. Instead, two days later, a solitary protest took place, drawing no more than 19,000 participants that appeared downtrodden and forlorn.