Diplomacy

The year 2025 has ended up being a momentous year for the South Caucasus, writes Dennis Sammut in his Monday Commentary. Armenia-Azerbaijan relations have been redefined, with consequences for the whole region and beyond. That huge development overshadowed key moments in the domestic trajectory of the two countries, which however have deep consequences for the two countries, and even beyond. It has also been a tumultuous year for Georgia too. The country has been gripped in a political crisis throughout 2025, with no obvious end in sight. Whatever the domestic arguments, on the international stage Georgia is today a shadow of what it used to be until recently. It not only has lost the chance of joining the European Union any time soon, but it has also lost its position as the leading South Caucasus country. Today, in the new reality of the region, it lags as a tired third. Important as 2025 was, it ended with a lot of unfinished business. So 2026 will also be crucial for the three countries. Since regaining its statehood in 1991 after the dissolution of the Soviet Union, Armenia-Azerbaijan relations have been defined by war. The two fought open wars, wars of attrition, and propaganda wars, incessantly. Tens of thousands of people lost their lives, and hundreds of thousands were displaced. Many had lost hope that the two could try the alternative – i.e. peaceful co-existence. Yet in 2025 they were proven wrong.

The German government holds Russia responsible for a cyberattack on German air traffic control, and for targeted disinformation campaigns before the last federal election. According to the German Foreign Office in Berlin, the incidents could be clearly attributed to the Russian military intelligence service, the GRU. In response, the Russian ambassador to Berlin was summoned to the Foreign Ministry. "We have been observing a massive increase in threatening hybrid activities by Russia for some time now," a spokesperson for the Foreign Ministry stated. These range from disinformation campaigns and espionage to cyberattacks and sabotage attempts. The aim is to divide society, sow distrust, and undermine confidence in democratic institutions. The spokesperson added that with these actions, Russia is "very concretely threatening our security, not only through its war of aggression against Ukraine, but also here in Germany."  The Foreign Ministry spokesperson explained that the cyberattack on air traffic control in August 2024 was clearly attributed to the hacker collective "APT28," known as "Fancy Bear," and to the responsibility of the Russian military intelligence service, the GRU. Furthermore, it could now be "conclusively stated" that Russia had attempted "to influence and destabilize both the last Federal election and the ongoing internal affairs of the Federal Republic of Germany." There was "absolutely irrefutable evidence" for this". The so-called "Storm 1516" campaign, which has been running since 2024, is allegedly backed by "reliable information" that the Moscow-based think tank "Center for Geopolitical Expertise" is behind it. The Center is also said to be supported by Russian military intelligence. Its primary aim is to influence democratic elections in the West. (Click the image to read more).