Diplomacy

Since 7 October 2023, when Hamas killed 1,139 innocent civilians in Israel, the Israeli government has been conducting military operations in the Gaza Strip that have taken the lives of 43,552 Palestinians. As the death toll of Palestinians is increasing, the UN General Assembly has asked the International Court of Justice to give an advisory opinion on Israel’s military operations in Palestine. The International Court of Justice (ICJ) in The Hague issued an advisory opinion on 19th July 2024, stating that Israel’s continued presence in the occupied Palestinian territory is illegal under International Law. The ICJ also argued that states must not assist via financial, military or political aid to the Israeli government in maintaining its unlawful occupation (para. 273-279). It is important to note that although advisory opinions are not binding on states, they carry great legal weight by clarifying the application of international law and having moral authority. 

Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev exchanged brief words during a plenary session at the BRICS summit in Kazan. 

On 18 October, the 3+3 regional cooperation platform which hypothetically includes Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia “plus” three surrounding powers (Türkiye, Iran, and Russia) convened the third meeting at the ministerial level, though again without the participation of Georgia. Hosted by Türkiye in Istanbul, the meeting took place amidst a sensitive security situation in the wider region due to the ramifications of the Russia-Ukraine war, the potential Iran-Israel war, the upcoming fateful parliamentary elections in Georgia, and certainly, the persisting challenges in the Armenia-Azerbaijan peace process.

US President Joe Biden has written a letter to Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev, stressing that peace between Armenia and Azerbaijan is crucial to stabilising the region and increasing economic connectivity between Europe and Central Asia. Biden stressed that the US is strongly committed to supporting a peace treaty and that Aliyev should focus on reaching an agreement by the end of the year. 

As the US presidential election approaches, many are assessing the implications of a Donald Trump or Kamala Harris administration in different parts of the world. Commentators on the South Caucasus are no exception. The Biden administration established a Washington format to facilitate Armenia–Azerbaijan negotiations and took steps to further US–Armenia relations, making a decision to upgrade the status of a strategic dialogue launched in 2019 to a strategic partnership commission. The Biden administration also invested efforts in thawing relations between Armenia and Turkey, viewing this as essential for regional stability. US officials view normalising Armenia–Turkey relations as crucial for reducing Russian influence and decreasing Armenia’s dependency on Russia.

The President of Armenia will make an official visit to Kazakhstan on Tuesday (15 October) to discuss further strengthening of Kazakh-Armenian cooperation with Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev. The two leaders will discuss cooperation in various political and economic areas, such as trade and migration, as well as enhancing cultural and humanitarian exchanges. 

As this year's United Nations Climate Change Conference in Baku draws closer, negotiations between Armenia and Azerbaijan appear to be drifting further apart. Despite hopes that the opposite would be true, a lack of clarity and confusion instead continues to reign. Does the draft Agreement on Peace and Establishment of Interstate Relations contain 17 points or 16? Initially, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan had announced that consensus had been reached on 13 points while 3 were partially agreed and there was no agreement at all on a fourth. Since then, official statements and media in Armenia instead refers to 16 points though Yerevan has reportedly ditched the three incomplete articles to make only 13.