Diplomacy

On 10 December, the Center for Analysis of International Relations (AIR Center), a Baku-based political think tank closely affiliated with the Azerbaijani government, held a high-level international conference titled “The Main Obstacle to a Peace Agreement Between Azerbaijan and Armenia.” The conference identified the territorial claims in Armenia’s constitution against Azerbaijan as the primary obstacle to peace.

European Union foreign ministers have agreed to ask the European Commission to prepare a proposal for the suspension of visa-free travel for Georgian officials holding diplomatic passports as a consequence of the  crackdown in Georgia on pro-EU protests. This measure will be a considerable setback for the government in Tbilisi.

The negotiation process between Armenia and Azerbaijan since 2022 has followed a recurring pattern: initial optimism for a peace agreement to be signed by year’s end, followed by disappointment as talks falter. The year 2024 was no exception, beginning with hopeful developments and concluding with unresolved disputes. In December 2023, Armenia and Azerbaijan signed a joint declaration in which Armenia supported Azerbaijan’s bid to host the COP29 climate summit in November 2024, and Azerbaijan released 32 Armenian prisoners of war. This gesture set a positive tone, with COP29 serving as an informal deadline for a peace agreement.

On 5 December, the Azerbaijani Press Agency (APA) in reference to “diplomatic sources” reported that Azerbaijan’s Foreign Minister rejected a United States-initiated meeting with his Armenian counterpart on the sidelines of the 31st meeting of the OSCE Council of Foreign Ministers in Malta. According to the agency, the reason behind Azerbaijan’s refusal was related to the “insistence” of the United States’ Secretary Antony Blinken to mediate between the two South Caucasian ministers. Citing the overall “unjust and biased policy” of the Biden administration towards Azerbaijan, the diplomatic source of the agency stated that “for this reason, Azerbaijan does not want the U.S. to participate in the peace agenda at all and does not consider it appropriate”.

Georgia is once again embroiled in turmoil, its central Rustaveli Avenue literally alight with protests sparked by a wave of political and geopolitical tensions. Following controversial parliamentary elections held 26 October, tensions have escalated, with many citizens accusing the government of pivoting away from the European Union in favour of closer ties with Russia. They demand a new vote.

The United States has expressed support for the Georgian people saying that it has been a partner to Georgia and the Georgian people for more than 32 years.  In a statement on Wednesday, Secretary of State Anthony J.Blinken said that the partnership has been rooted in a shared love of freedom and democracy and a desire to see Georgia in the Euro-Atlantic family. 

French President Emmanuel Macron’s arrival in Riyadh on Monday for a three-day state visit demonstrates the deepening ties between France and Saudi Arabia. The visit follows an invitation from Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and it reflects the shared ambition to enhance cooperation across various sectors in conjunction with both Saudi Vision 2030 and France 2030.

Four years after the Second Karabakh War, civil society initiatives between Armenian and Azerbaijan remain arguably less impactful than ever before. On the surface, they appear few and far between, but many are often held in secret. The reason given is often security but that argument is no longer as credible as it was before. Indeed, nearly all projects that do exist remain largely untouched and unhindered. Instead, mirroring the situation before 2020, many Armenian practitioners refused to meet with their Azerbaijani counterparts, especially while Baku still held prisoners and other detainees from the war. That number is significantly less now. Time has passed and there may finally be the realisation that dialogue is the only way forward.

Over the past two years, numerous unofficial deadlines have been set for signing the Armenia-Azerbaijan peace treaty. Until the end of last year, the people of both countries held their breath in anticipation of a breakthrough, encouraged by officials on both sides who deemed an agreement possible. Later, there was significant optimism that the two former adversaries might reach a deal during the United Nations Climate Conference (COP29) which was held on November 11-24 in Baku.