Conflict and Peace

The conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan, two republics in the South Caucasus, has never been solely about their bilateral relations. Regional and distant powers have long sought to influence the conflict, pursuing their own strategic interests. This dynamic persisted even after the Second Karabakh War (27 September – 10 November 2020), which ended the core dispute between Armenia and Azerbaijan by bringing an end to the occupation of Azerbaijan’s Karabakh region. As the fourth anniversary of the war’s onset – also known as the 44-Day War – approaches, Baku and Yerevan continue to struggle with the peace process. Meanwhile, the most significant post-war initiative, the reopening of regional transportation and communication links, is facing increasing complications. Today, the often destructive involvement of external powers has become a major obstacle to the normalisation of Armenia-Azerbaijan relations and the implementation of regional transport projects.

A major Russian air strike on Lviv, a city in western Ukraine near the border with NATO member Poland, killed seven people, wounded more than 30 and caused extensive damage to historic buildings in the city centre, regional officials said on Wednesday (4 September). The attack came a day after Russia's deadliest single attack this year, when two ballistic missiles hit a military institute in the central Ukrainian city of Poltava, killing 50 people and injuring hundreds more. Meanwhile, neighbouring Poland scrambled jets to secure its airspace for the third time in eight days.

Since the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh War, negotiations between Armenia and Azerbaijan have gone through a series of ups and downs that often resemble a rollercoaster. Periods of heightened optimism have been followed by abrupt breaks in talks, as seen in late 2022 and 2023. After Armenia and Azerbaijan signed a joint statement in December 2023, early 2024 brought renewed hope to the process. In March-April 2024, Yerevan accepted Azerbaijani demands concerning four villages along the northern part of their shared border. Azerbaijan announced its intention to make the COP29 United Nations Climate Summit in Azerbaijan in November 2024 a “COP of peace,” fostering a growing belief that an agreement might be reached by that date. However, the new or reinforced sine qua non-preconditions by President Aliyev—such as amendments to the Armenian constitution and the dissolution of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) Minsk Group established to seek a peaceful solution to the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict—have significantly dampened expectations that even a framework agreement outlining basic principles could be signed by the end of 2024.

The European naval mission Aspides in the Red Sea says the Greek oil tanker Sounion, which was attacked by Houthi rebels, does not appear to be leaking oil. The tanker is carrying 150,000 tonnes of crude oil. If it leaked into the sea, it would cause an environmental disaster.

Belarus said on Monday (19 August) that it had sent more troops to its border with Ukraine. A day earlier, President Alexander Lukashenko said nearly a third of the Belarusian army was stationed on the border, although he did not give exact figures. Belarusian General Andrei Lukyanovich said this included anti-aircraft troops.

In a telephone conversation with his Israeli counterpart Gallant, US Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin promised that an aircraft carrier already on its way to the Middle East would be speeded up. The US is also sending a nuclear submarine with guided missiles - the USS Georgia - to the region. The US aircraft carrier USS Theodore Roosevelt has been in the region for some time and will soon be joined by the USS Abraham Lincoln, which will carry advanced Joint Strike Fighter jets.