Conflict and Peace

Chaos broke out in Romania’s capital Sunday evening as incensed supporters of the far-right populist Calin Georgescu protested the electoral body’s decision to reject his candidacy in a presidential election rerun. He won the first round of last year’s race before a top court annulled the election. The 62-year-old Georgescu filed his candidacy on Friday in the capital, Bucharest. The Central Election Bureau, also known by its Romanian acronym BEC, had 48 hours to register or reject it.

Even though many believed a second Trump presidency was unlikely or even impossible, his re-election last November demonstrated how many people prefer to favour dreams over reality, transforming fears into self-fulfilling prophecies. This is a situation that can best describe how Track II diplomacy in the Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict has been conducted over time. As a result, there is little to no agreement between the sides, the blatantly obvious is ignored, and meetings become performative at best or simply a continuation of the conflict at worst.

European Union leaders agreed to significantly boost defense spending to ensure Europe’s security and voiced near-unanimous support for Ukraine at an extraordinary meeting on Thursday, after the United States dramatically pulled back its assistance to the continent in a historic upending of transatlantic relations. At the summit in Brussels, 26 European leaders signed a text calling for a peace deal that respects “Ukraine’s independence, sovereignty and territorial integrity,” while including Ukraine in the negotiations. Hungary abstained.

The trials of former Armenian separatist leaders in Baku mark a long-overdue moment of accountability for decades of aggression, occupation, and destruction in the Karabakh region of Azerbaijan. The proceedings in the Baku Military Court are more than a legal exercise – they are a public affirmation of Azerbaijan’s sovereignty over its internationally recognized territory, a sovereignty that Armenia sought to undermine for over 30 years through both overt and covert support for the separatist regime. Courtroom testimonies of the former separatist leaders have reinforced what Azerbaijan has long maintained: Armenia was not a bystander but the architect of the separatist military apparatus that inflicted immense suffering on Azerbaijanis.

The US State Department on Tuesday reinstated the “foreign terrorist organization” designation for Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthi group fulfilling an order announced by President Donald Trump shortly after he took office. Secretary of State Marco Rubio announced the department had restored the designation, which carries with it sanctions and penalties for anyone providing “material support” for the group.

61 per cent of Georgians believe that the country’s integration into the European Union would have a positive impact on Georgian-Abkhaz and Georgian-Ossetian relations according to a new study by the Caucasus Research Resource Center on conflicts in Georgia. Additionally, 56 per cent think that NATO membership would also be a positive development. When it comes to Georgia’s rapprochement with Russia, 31 per cent of respondents believe it would have positive consequences. The study, “Conflicts in Georgia: Perceptions, Attitudes, and Expectations”, was commissioned by the Institute for Nationalism and Conflict Studies, the Levan Mikeladze Foundation, and the Caucasian House and conducted by the Caucasus Research Resource Center in 2024.

In a desolate makeshift camp on the fringes of Somalia's capital, tens of thousands of internally displaced people sit under the baking sun not sure if they can have access to food rations and medication following U.S. President Donald Trump’s decree to freeze most of his country's foreign aid. Trump’s decision, which will remain in force for 90 days following his executive order of January 20, threatens to collapse the humanitarian aid economy that sustains the livelihoods of some of the world’s most vulnerable people. The U.S. provides more foreign aid globally than any other country, budgeting about $60 billion in 2023, or about 1 per cent of the U.S. budget.

Badra Gunba has won a presidential election in the breakaway Georgian region of Abkhazia, state media said on Sunday, months after his predecessor was driven from office following protests over an investment deal with Russia. Gunba, currently acting President, took almost 55 per cent of the vote in Saturday's election in the Russia-backed territory, ahead of opposition leader Adgur Ardzinba on just under 42 per cent, Abkhazian state news agency Apsnypress reported, citing preliminary results from the electoral commission. Reports indicate that 70 per cent of the population took part in the elections - 100,412 people.

The past five years have marked a growing Gulf economic presence in the South Caucasus. Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have expanded their regional footprint through equity investments in Azerbaijan and Georgia’s transport and renewable energy sectors. Armenia has been a weak link in interregional chains due to conflict with Azerbaijan and its isolation from regional connectivity frameworks. Yet recently, Yerevan managed to establish profitable trade links to the Gulf, largely thanks to Western sanctions on Russia. The South Caucasus trio sees financial flows from the Gulf as necessary for successful economic diversification. For the Gulf countries, the South Caucasus provides an alternative market for strategic investments, which aligns with their long-term goals of projecting geo-economic influence and boosting trade.