South Caucasus

On 18 October, the 3+3 regional cooperation platform which hypothetically includes Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia “plus” three surrounding powers (Türkiye, Iran, and Russia) convened the third meeting at the ministerial level, though again without the participation of Georgia. Hosted by Türkiye in Istanbul, the meeting took place amidst a sensitive security situation in the wider region due to the ramifications of the Russia-Ukraine war, the potential Iran-Israel war, the upcoming fateful parliamentary elections in Georgia, and certainly, the persisting challenges in the Armenia-Azerbaijan peace process.

US President Joe Biden has written a letter to Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev, stressing that peace between Armenia and Azerbaijan is crucial to stabilising the region and increasing economic connectivity between Europe and Central Asia. Biden stressed that the US is strongly committed to supporting a peace treaty and that Aliyev should focus on reaching an agreement by the end of the year. 

On Thursday (17 October), Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev visited the Baku Olympic Stadium, the main venue for the upcoming COP 29 conference, and announced that preparations are almost complete and on track to be handed over to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC).

As the US presidential election approaches, many are assessing the implications of a Donald Trump or Kamala Harris administration in different parts of the world. Commentators on the South Caucasus are no exception. The Biden administration established a Washington format to facilitate Armenia–Azerbaijan negotiations and took steps to further US–Armenia relations, making a decision to upgrade the status of a strategic dialogue launched in 2019 to a strategic partnership commission. The Biden administration also invested efforts in thawing relations between Armenia and Turkey, viewing this as essential for regional stability. US officials view normalising Armenia–Turkey relations as crucial for reducing Russian influence and decreasing Armenia’s dependency on Russia.