South Caucasus

With the conclusion of the United Nations Climate Change Conference COP29 in Azerbaijan, discussions with Armenia on normalising relations are expected to resume in December. However, it remains uncertain whether an agreement will be reached anytime soon, as past attempts to finalise talks have consistently fallen short. That said, there may now be some clarity regarding the three key issues believed to be preventing a breakthrough. In early November, Farid Shafiyev, Chair of the Centre for Analysis of International Relations (AIR) in Azerbaijan, shared on X what he claims are the specific points left unresolved.

“As the host country of COP29, we have become the target of a coordinated, well-orchestrated campaign of slander and blackmail”, said President Ilham Aliyev of Azerbaijan during his inauguration speech at the climate conference on November 12. This conference was the largest international event ever organized in Azerbaijan and the South Caucasus. Bringing together 80 presidents, vice-presidents, and prime ministers, the conference had 72,000 registered participants from 196 countries. Azerbaijan has concentrated all its efforts over the past year since it received the mandate of hosting this event to make it as well-organized and successful as possible. In parallel, the country has had to deal with the information attacks from multiple sources over the past year.

China is a relatively new player in the South Caucasus but has growing interests, particularly in the economic domain. While Beijing established diplomatic ties with Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia in the early 1990s, it largely stayed out of the region’s geopolitics. Armenia acquired Chinese-made WM-80 multiple-launch systems in 1999, but they had little impact on the military balance with Azerbaijan. Chinese economic ties with the South Caucasus began to grow in the early 2000s, driven by the rapid expansion of its economy. Interest in the region deepened after President Xi Jinping announced the Belt and Road Initiative in 2013, with the South Caucasus envisioned as a potential land route connecting China to Europe.

November marks the fourth anniversary of the end of the 2020 Karabakh war. It was also the month considered as an informal deadline for initialling or signing some kind of document ending the conflict between Yerevan and Baku or at least a joint statement cementing points agreed in peace talks to date. Instead, having failed to do so by the time of this month's United Nations Climate Change Conference COP29 in Baku, and with Yerevan effectively shunning the event, Azerbaijan says that negotiations will now resume in December. As usual, Azerbaijan says Armenia must change its constitution. Armenia refuses to do so – or at least not until other constitutional changes are put to referendum still most likely in 2027. 

Azerbaijan's railwy system is completing preparations to welcome international guests to COP29 by providing a seamless, environmentally friendly and efficient transit experience. These preparations include training more than 300 employees in customer service, English language and climate knowledge to ensure smooth transit for visitors arriving for the conference. 

Georgia is one of the former Soviet republics that, in theory, could have made a smooth transition to a European-style democratic model. Instead, it plunged into civil war in the early 1990s and enduring political divisions that persist to this day.

On Monday (28 October), Azerbaijan held a meeting in Baku with NATO's Climate and Energy Security Sector representatives from the Innovation, Hybrid Issues and Cybersecurity Division and representatives from NATO member and partner countries to discuss energy security and climate change. 

Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev exchanged brief words during a plenary session at the BRICS summit in Kazan.