South Caucasus

Riot police in Georgia have fired tear gas and water cannon to disperse crowds protesting against a bill seen by the opposition as targeting media freedoms and narrowing the space for the work of civil society. Demonstrators threw eggs and bottles at the police outside the parliament in the capital, Tbilisi. The crowds retreated, but clashes continued on the main Rustaveli Avenue late on Tuesday. A number of people were reportedly injured and detained. Georgia's IPN news agency says that Levan Khabeishvili, chairman of the main opposition party United National Movement, was severely beaten and taken to hospital. He was later shown in a hospital bed where he is said to have a broken nose. Reuters news agency says that eyewitnesses saw some police officers physically attack protesters. On 17 April, MPs gave their initial backing to the "foreign agent" bill. The bill is now going through its last stages in parliament. Under the bill proposed by the ruling Georgian Dream party, non-governmental organisations (NGOs) and independent media that receive more than 20% of their funding from foreign donors would have to register as organisations "bearing the interests of a foreign power". They would also be monitored by Georgia's justice ministry and could be forced to share sensitive information - or face hefty fines of up to 25,000 Georgian lari ($9,400). The passing of the bill in its first reading triggered a series of street protests. Opponents of the bill demand that the government scrap it, arguing that it is inspired by authoritarian legislation that neighbouring Russia uses to crush dissent.

Those who know their political geography will tell you that there are five countries in Central Asia: Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan. But in the last two years, a new kid has appeared on the block. Azerbaijan is not usually described as a Central Asian country: Caucasus or Caspian are more likely labels, but recently one could spot Azerbaijan in key summits and meetings of the Central Asian republics, including those with other blocs, such as the Gulf Co-operation Council. Two things are driving this process.

Bidzina Ivanishvili, founder and honorary chairman of the Georgian Dream party, addressed a large crowd of supporters in Georgia's capital Tbilisi on Monday, 29 April as the standoff between Government and opposition continues. In a fiery speech, considered as the most radical of his political career, Ivanishvili lambasted the US and NATO, accusing them of seeing Georgia only as cannon fodder. He slammed the country's opposition and civil society and promised a heavy handed approach towards the opposition following next October elections. The mask that had hid the true Ivanishvili for the last twelve years finally fell. Ivanishvili accused NGOs of trying to organise a revolution and threatened all those who oppose him. He said "I know many of our supporters were dissatisfied that we did not punish the United National Movement enough. Even though many of their leaders spent time in prison and their leader [Saakashvili] is still in prison, it is true that we did not pass the UNM in a tribunal as such, did not condemn it as a treasonous, criminal entity that it is. Why did not we do it? Because we were under tremendous pressure. In fact, UNM was appointed the opposition [in 2012] just like they were appointed as government [in 2003] by the global party of war. The Georgian people should decide the country’s fate. After the [victory in] elections, we will issue a strict political and legal condemnation to the collective UNM [meaning NGOs and political opponents]; it will get the due punishment it deserves. They will pay for all the crimes against the Georgian people."

Tens of thousands of people took to the streets of the Georgian capital Tbilisi on Sunday evening, to protest against a proposed law that would brand most of the country's civil society organisations as "foreign agents" for receiving financial support from overseas sources. With the government defiant, the country appears to be heading for one of its most acute political crisis in decades. The decision of the Georgian Dream government to defy the country’s president, opposition, civil society, and practically the entire international community, by re-introducing a controversial law which will categorise most civil society organisations as “foreign agents” has created a deep rift, with both sides adamant that they will take the issue “to the end” In the last few days, the streets of Tbilisi have been taken over by continuous mass rallies with the slogan “Yes to Europe, No to Russian Law”. Until last night protestors lacked a critical mass, but this has now changed. The protests are led mainly by youth and student organisations. The largely discredited Georgian opposition appears content to support the protests from behind.  So far there have been only a few incidents, but as the number of protestors grows, this can change very quickly. In the meantime, the government will today bring out its own supporters on the streets. The European Parliament last week called for sanctions against Georgian leaders, including the Honorary President and founder of Georgian Dream, Bidzina Ivanishvili. It is unlikely that the European Commission and European Council will do so yet, but this option is now seen not only as a distinct possibility, but as being inevitable if the Georgian government pushes ahead with the controversial law. Events on the ground will determine how fast things will move. Georgia faces difficult parliamentary elections in the autumn, but it seems the current crisis will come to a head before then.

The geopolitics of the South Caucasus is as unpredictable as ever. Even as recently as the beginning of April, few, if any, would have imagined that Russia may withdraw its peacekeeping contingent from the Karabakh region of Azerbaijan anytime soon. Many observers were even skeptical about the possibility of their withdrawal in November 2025 – the date which was stipulated in the November 2020 trilateral statement as the potential but not fixed date for the ending of the peacekeeping mission of Russia. This skepticism was grounded in the understanding that for Russia, Karabakh holds paramount importance in the broader context of the South Caucasus. In the wake of Russia’s unexpected withdrawal of its peacekeeping mission from the Karabakh region, the South Caucasus enters a new geopolitical dynamic. This historic development not only signifies Azerbaijan's attainment of complete sovereignty over its territories but also heralds the definitive end of the Karabakh conflict. President Ilham Aliyev's adept diplomatic maneuvers have secured Azerbaijan's territorial integrity and positioned Baku as a confident actor on the regional stage. The withdrawal of Russian peacekeepers marks a pivotal moment, shaping the future landscape of Azerbaijan-Russia relations and regional geopolitics. As Azerbaijan charts its course forward, its commitment to regional integration remains, however, steadfast, with a focus on strengthening ties within the Turkic world.

The announcement of the return of the four non-enclave villages of Baghanis Ayrim, Ashagi Askipara, Kheyrimli, and Gizilhajili comes as a welcome development. That is not to say that there won’t be problems as the physical process of delimitation/demarcation takes place, and military forces are replaced by border guards, and nor does it ignore the distinct lack of trust between Yerevan and Baku, but it does highlight the need for more focused work in order to build confidence between the sides. Pashinyan has already hinted at the idea of trade between the two communities at some point in an albeit distant future but this is also a region that has experienced significant cross-border incidents for over 30 years. The task won’t be simple, but civil society in both countries could and should play an important role alongside the work of the two governments.