South Caucasus

Azerbaijan Airlines Flight 8243 was downed by a missile on 25 December fired from a Pantsir-S1 air defence system which was brought from Syria to Russia, according to reliable sources familiar with the investigation quoted exclusively by Azerbaijan-based international news channel AnewZ and reported for the first time in Europe by Euronews. Electronic warfare systems were deployed against the Azerbaijani aircraft on 25 December as it was on its approach to land in Grozny, leading to severe malfunctions in its control systems before its crash near Aktau airport in Kazakhstan, AnewZ reported based on its sources.

Speaking at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan said Armenia has decided to adopt a foreign policy that is balanced between relations with the European Union and Russia. He added that balanced relations are also being created at the regional level notably with Iran, by establishing diplomatic relations with Turkey and concluding a peace deal with Azerbaijan. Pashinyan said this approach is not easy but also not impossible adding that Armenia is being transparent with all its international partners about its intentions. “Yes, we have decided to get closer to the European Union, but we are very intensively trying to share our position with Iran and Russia and with all our partners”, Pashinyan stated.

A second Trump presidency is unlikely to bring a sharp focus to the South Caucasus and American policy for the region will hinge on existing bipartisan frameworks and congressional initiatives rather than direct presidential involvement, according to an analysis by Vita van Dreven of The Hague Institute for Eastern Europe, the South Caucasus and Central Asia. She explores how the Trump presidency might impact the South Caucasus, analysing potential policy directions and their implications for the region:

President Ilham Aliyev has rejected criticism over the arrests of journalists and said Azerbaijan has "a free press and a free internet." Seven people went on trial in Azerbaijan on Tuesday in the latest of a series of cases against staff of independent news media, prompting accusations of a crackdown on the press. Six of the defendants are affiliated with Abzas Media, an independent outlet focused on corruption and human rights in Azerbaijan, which ranks 164th of 180 countries in Reporters without Borders' (RSF) World Press Freedom Index. The seventh is a reporter with the Azeri language service of Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty (RFE/RL), a US government funded outlet.

The working visit by the Prime Minister of Georgia Irakli Kobakhidze to Azerbaijan on January 17 suggests that both countries recognise that close cooperation is essential for ensuring stability and fostering prosperity in the region. During the visit, Kobakhidze met with Azerbaijani Prime Minister Ali Asadov and participated in a session of the joint intergovernmental commission, which included delegations from both countries. The discussions revolved around the partnership between the two countries, bolstering trade and economic ties, as well as expanding cooperation in the energy and transportation sectors.

The  Georgian government has driven the country toward a human rights crisis in 2024, Human Rights Watch said in its World Report 2025. The report published Thursday stated that the Georgian government has adopted new repressive laws, unleashed brutal police violence against mostly peaceful protesters, and pivoted away from the European Union accession process and the human rights reforms this would have required.

Giorgi Gakharia, a former prime minister of Georgia who now leads one of the country's main opposition groups, was hospitalised after being severely beaten. Acording to media reports he sustained injuries on his face and head during an assault by several men at a hotel lobby in Batumi. In a Facebook post on Wednesday, Gakharia said his health was stable. His party, For Georgia, called the assault a "brutal, coordinated group attack" and said the government was to blame. Party in government has denied any wrongdoing.

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Armenian Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan launched the U.S.-Armenia Strategic Partnership Commission on January 14 marking the latest milestone in the bilateral relationship between the two countries.  The United States and Armenia signed the strategic partnership agreement at the State Department in Washington expanding cooperation in security and several of areas as Yerevan appears to distance itself from Russia, a traditional. The United States is "working with Armenia in the realm of security and defense, and in particular, to support its efforts to assert its independence and sovereignty over its own territory," Blinken said at the signing ceremony.

When I moved to Yerevan in October 1998, it was rare to hear much positive conversation about the future of Armenia or Karabakh. That had also been the case when I visited the country on a research trip earlier that June. Many were already tired of the conflict and few seemed enthused with a new regime that had just come to power after the ousting the country's first president earlier that year. Levon Ter-Petrosyan had chosen to resign following a palace coup staged by his inner circle opposed to a concessionary peace deal with Azerbaijan. They thought the deal proposed by a troika of France, Russia, and the United States was a betrayal. Ter-Petrosyan warned that it might well be the best Armenia could ever hope for.