Georgia is once again embroiled in turmoil, its central Rustaveli Avenue literally alight with protests sparked by a wave of political and geopolitical tensions. Following controversial parliamentary elections held 26 October, tensions have escalated, with many citizens accusing the government of pivoting away from the European Union in favour of closer ties with Russia. They demand a new vote.
At time of writing, six nights of demonstrations shook Tbilisi. The vast majority of demonstrators were peaceful, but running battles with small groups targeting police with fireworks resulted in several dispersals that have been considered disproportionate and often indiscriminate by international observers. Over a hundred have been arrested, usually harshly.
As of 5 December, the seventh night passed with no incidents. Earlier in the day it had been reported that a senior police official had resigned and a key opposition youth activist responsible for coordinating the rallies, or at least those protestors willing to directly confront the police, arrested among others. However, it remains unclear as to why the demonstrations have now died down in their intensity.
Both sides have their own alleged reasons, of course, but whatever the take, what has now become a major political and constitutional crisis in the tiny country of 3.7 million casts a shadow over the coming New Year Festivities. The bitter division and polarisation already that has plagued the country will likely only increase.
The October elections, which secured a fourth consecutive term for the ruling Georgian Dream party, had been expected to ignite protests. What surprised many, however, was that the violence only erupted a full month after the vote. The OSCE/ODIHR observation mission had refused to be drawn on whether the report of violations had sufficiently influenced the outcome.
But while opposition figures declared election manipulation, it was unable to explain how. Moreover, it had at first even looked as though they were resigned to their fate.
Some opposition supporters blamed the country’s ethnic minorities for the government win, but they soon turned on their own ethnic kin that didn’t vote or didn’t support the opposition. In reality, the opposition had been neither prepared for the vote or its aftermath.
As many observers noted, the opposition failed to campaign on any issues other than Russia and did not engage with the electorate, especially in the regions. In contrast, the ruling party did even if it mainly seemed to warn that an opposition victory could mean Georgia will experience a similar fate as Ukraine. Georgia last fought and lost a war with Russia in August 2008.
It wasn’t until a European Parliament resolution condemned the vote towards the end of November that frustration turned to anger. A non-binding resolution called for new elections under its supervision and others countries were recommended to not recognise the outcome. The reaction only intensified when Georgian Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze announced that Tbilisi was suspending Georgia’s EU accession process until 2028 and would not accept any further grants.
Ironically, the EU had done that anyway following the controversial “foreign agents” law. Georgia had not suspended its EU Association Agreement, however, and nor would it withdraw from the accord. Nonetheless, Kobakhidze’s words were ill-advised as they would only be interpreted by many as the end of the process entirely.
According to the latest household survey by the Caucasus Research Resource Centre (CRRC), 70 percent of respondents support EU membership with 48 percent of that supporting it fully. Only 7 percent feel the same way about the Russia-led Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) with just 3 percent fully supporting it. This was the one issue that unites the vast majority of Georgians.
But despite the accusations of election fraud, the situation is murky. Some international observers, like those from the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights (OSCE/ODIHR), acknowledge vote manipulation but have yet to pass a final verdict and still will not be drawn on whether it sufficiently affected the results.
Unfortunately, OSCE/ODIHR's final report has yet to be released and only a recent statement called for any failings to be addressed by parliament. That is unlikely to satisfy Georgia’s largely ceremonial president, Salome Zourabichvili, who alongside the Coalition for Change grouping of opposition parties refuses to recognise the legislature’s legitimacy.
The number of those taking part in the protests is debatable. Those among the opposition and western-funded non-governmental organisation claim “hundreds of thousands” while more objective assessments and reports mention “thousands” or “tens of thousands.” Whatever, the figure, however, the protests have resulted in some ambassadors resigning and public sector workers condemning the government for its decision on the EU membership process.
The international response has been swift. The United States suspended its strategic partnership with Georgia and is now drawing up a list of possible sanctions, emboldening the opposition further. Paris-born President Salome Zourabichvili, who once held pro-government views, has become one of the administration’s most vocal critics and when her term ends later this year there could be other problems.
Zourabichvili, once a foreign minister under former President Mikheil Saakashvili until she again went into opposition to that government, says she is the only legitimate power in the country and will not step down. Her overtures to the constitutional court have been rejected, however. Only a few countries, most notably Hungary and Turkiye, have congratulated the government on its win.
Armenia and Azerbaijan did so too. As Georgia’s neighbours in the South Caucasus, much of their trade is dependent on their relations with Tbilisi. Moreover, both need stability in the region. With Yerevan and Baku still unable to agree on a peace deal, what happens in Tbilisi could have ramifications on all three countries as they enter 2025. And that is even before Donald Trump returns to the U.S. presidency.
In the meantime, with the mandate of the European Union Monitoring Mission (EUMM) due to expire on 14 December, it can only be hoped that one casualty of the unparalleled spat between Brussels and Tbilisi is not its continued presence on the two Administrative Boundary Lines (ABL) between Georgia and its two breakaway regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia.
Though EUMM could never prevent a Russian incursion, its Incident Prevention and Response Mechanism (IPRM), regular meetings that brings the sides together in cooperation with the OSCE, is too important to lose.
