Mozambique and Georgia held elections on the 9th of October and 26th of October 2024 respectively. Despite the high demand for change in the political status quo, the incumbent parties in both countries – the Frente de Libertacao de Mocambique (FREMILO) and the Georgian Dream – have been elected again pushing civil society organisations to call out flawed elections. Both countries have been plunged into protests ever since.
On one hand, Maputo, the capital of Mozambique, has been plunged into chaos following the victory of Fremilo, the party that has held power in Mozambique since the country gained independence in 1975. The supporters of the main opposition party, Partido Otimista pelo Desenvolvimento de Moçambique (PODEMOS), alongside Venâncio Mondlane, the candidate proposed by Podemos, have called the election fraudulent arguing that the incumbent party stole the election. Although Podemos enjoyed significant support, Mondlane secured only 20.32% of the votes, while the Frelimo party won the election with 70.67%, resulting in Daniel Chapo becoming the fifth president of Mozambique. On December 23rd, the Mozambican Constitutional Council, responding to accusations of electoral fraud, reviewed the votes and confirmed that Chapo won with 65% of the votes, while Mondlane secured 24% of the votes.
The protests have evolved into urban riots with the police taking brutal measures to stop them. According to an Amnesty International report released on 27 February, more than 300 people have been killed, including children and bystanders by security forces in post-election unrest. Khanyo Farise, Amnesty International Deputy Regional Director for East and Southern Africa, argued on 27 February 2025 that “the crackdown on protests in Mozambique following last year’s election has been appalling. It is the bloodiest election cycle in Mozambique’s post-civil war history, yet the suspected perpetrators have enjoyed complete impunity”. Moreover, at least 4,200 people have been imprisoned with Mozambicans launching campaigns on social media to locate missing relatives. During the protests, 1,500 prisoners escaped from Maputo’s central prison on Christmas day adding to the chaotic situation in the capital.
The protesters are mainly young people, who have rallied behind Mondlane, due to deep dissatisfaction with the authoritarian status quo of the country. Mozambique has one of the youngest populations in the world with 56% of the population aged 19 or below. Many have taken to the streets to protest Frelimo’s authoritarian rule and its ineffective approach to addressing societal issues, including unemployment, inadequate education, and corruption. The protests have spread throughout Mozambique, paralyzing businesses and disrupting daily lives. Research by Magdalena Freischlad released on 17 December on Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik, claims that escalations may lead to civil war. She argues that although it is not certain whether Mondlane won the elections, the opposition candidate received a significantly higher share of the votes. She backs her argument by analysing the strong support of the ongoing protests that have temporarily paralyzed the country.
France 24 reported on the 28th of December that 13,000 thousand people have fled the country to neighbouring countries Malawi and Eswatini. Maputo has been largely left deserted with heavy police and army presence according to reports from Reuters. Despite the protests, which represent the strongest opposition Frelimo has faced in Mozambique’s history, Daniel Chapo was sworn in as president on 15 January in a ceremony that was sparsely attended. The latest event of the protest is that police fired at Mondlane’s convoy and the anti-government protesters on Wednesday (5 March) in Maputo. The Interior Minister Paulo Chachine in a speech on the same day denied allegations that it was an attempt to kill Mondlane.
On the other hand, Tbilisi, Georgia has been engulfed in protests since 28 November after Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze announced that Georgia will postpone its EU bid until 2028 (check the analysis on Georgia's deep divisions about Russia, posted on commonspace.eu for further information). The announcement came just hours after the European Parliament announced that the Georgian elections that took place on 26 October and were won by Georgian Dream were “fundamentally flawed”. Ever since, the flow of people carrying Georgian and European Union flags increased in Tbilisi. Students, women, professionals, NGOs, and DJs of famous techno clubs have taken to the streets to demand re-election.
In response, the police have used tear gas and water cannons to disperse protesters. Human Rights Watch found evidence of police chasing down, violently detaining and beating protestors. Victims have complained of “concussions and multiple fractures to their noses, facial bones, ribs and limbs, and scratches and bruises all over their bodies”. Denis Krivosheev, Amnesty International’s Deputy Director for Eastern Europe and Central Asia, argued on 13th January that “the Georgian authorities’ use of newly enacted, draconian legislation to suppress peaceful dissent marks a disturbing escalation in their crackdown on human rights”.
Differences in EU response:
Despite similar anti-democratic developments in both Georgia and Mozambique, the response from the European Union (EU) has been different to some extent. The EU heavily scrutinized Georgia's elections, condemning violations of electoral integrity as incompatible with its EU candidacy aspirations. In a statement released on 13 February, the European Parliament demanded an impartial investigation into complaints and criticized divisive laws introduced by the Georgian Dream that undermine democratic values. The EU emphasized that free elections are essential for Georgia's European integration path.
In the case of Mozambique, the EU Election Observation Mission (EOM) noted irregularities during vote counting and tabulation and called for greater transparency. The European Union External Action office released a statement on 24 December that “the EU encourages the President-elect and the new Administration to swiftly engage in a constructive dialogue with the opposition and with relevant civil society organisations, to restore the social contract with the population and uphold democratic values and human rights.” In addition, the European Union Election Observation Mission report released on 30 January stopped short of endorsing or rejecting the election results or asserting whether they were free and fair or not.
There are a number of reasons to explain this difference in the EU response towards the two countries. Firstly, the EU’s response to Georgia was sharper and more conditional due to its geopolitical significance as an aspiring EU candidate country. The criticism was thus framed within the context of Georgia’s alignment with European values. Furthermore, the criticism was stronger, emphasizing democratic backsliding in the country. This is the case as the European Union has an incentive to have strong democratic countries in its neighbourhood.
In terms of Mozambique, while the U.S., Canada, Britain, Norway, and Switzerland have clearly condemned Mozambique for electoral fraud, the EU remained more reserved in its criticism. Magdalena Freischlad in her report released on 17 December on Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik, argues that one possible reason for EU reservation, is that the EU has “overriding interests in the resource-rich country, particularly in light of the oil and gas reserves discovered in the north of the country in 2017”. This softer stance reflects an effort to avoid destabilizing the incumbent government that facilitates European energy interests. On 18 November 2024, the Council of the European Union committed to an additional 20 million to support Mozambique against terrorist attacks surrounding the oil project in the North of the country. Stability in Mozambique is vital for the EU to ensure uninterrupted progress on Liquified Natural Gas (LNG) projects. A harsher response from the EU could risk alienating the Mozambican government or exacerbating unrest that might threaten these investments, argues Magdalena Freischlad.
Recommendations:
Firstly, the EU should abandon their cautious stance when it comes to the Mozambican government and take similar actions as in the case of Georgia. Otherwise, the EU can be blamed for implementing double standards within its foreign affairs.
Secondly imposing harsher sanctions on Mozambican’s government can be an effective measure to get the incumbent party to respect human rights. Since Mozambique relies heavily on donor support, the EU’s potential freeze on financial aid could push the government to align its actions against protesters with international human rights standards.
Thirdly, in line with the report written by Magdalena Freischlad, developments in Mozambique also deserve wider media coverage. As police violence escalates, greater media coverage and public pressure on the government are essential to encourage a less aggressive response to demonstrators.
