Iran

Despite the fragile ceasefire, the question for the Gulf has continued to shift towards what comes next. Writing for Arab News, Faisal J. Abbas offered a clear articulation of where Riyadh stands, describing it as a position firmly oriented toward preventing the resurgence of war and achieving the unconditional reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, and after which, structured discussions with Iran should resume quickly. This is further reflected in the decision to allow the Iranian ambassador to remain in Riyadh while ultimately requiring the military attaché to leave, which should also be noted as a statement in itself. This is alongside full support for Pakistani mediation and consistent calls between Saudi foreign minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan and his Iranian counterpart Abbas Araghchi, both signals that communication channels were never fully closed. However, a more ambitious analysis of Saudi thinking came from Tamer Ajrami, writing for Middle East Monitor, who reported that Riyadh is floating something close to a ‘Gulf Helsinki Act’, which is a framework meant to extend beyond bilateral Saudi-Iranian deals and encompass the wider Gulf and European Union, being built around three practical building blocks: security and non-aggression, economic cooperation and stable energy flows, and verification and implementation. It was argued that Saudi Arabia is stepping forward to lead this collective track, not out of fondness for peace mediation but rather because the cost of the ongoing chaos has become higher than the cost of a deal. Washington is importantly absent from this architecture because, as Ajrami argues, it has already failed. (To read the full briefing, click on the image above.)