Conflict and War

The war in Ukraine rages on, and the constant pounding of Kyiv by Russian drones and missiles, is a reminder that this is not a war being fought in some far away border region. The war turned out very different from the one Vladimir Putin had envisioned when he launched his full scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. Thousands of young Ukrainians have died defending their country. Ukraine has been able to optimize its drone capability in order to take the battle back to the Russians, including to Moscow and St Petersburg. But to defend itself and its cities and citizens from sophisticated Russian weaponry Ukraine needs western support. This has not been as forthcoming as the Ukrainians hoped. Certainly Donald Trump has been less enthusiastic in helping Ukraine than his predecessor. Maybe this is now changing too. Europe’s support needs to remain high and consistent, and ambivalence must be avoided. Last week, Germany’s foreign minister held talks with his Russian counterpart in the first face-to-face meeting between top officials of the two nations since Vladimir Putin’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Johann Wadephul said he used the “intense conversation” with Sergei Lavrov in New York to warn Moscow against further escalation after a drone laden with explosives was discovered at Leipzig airport last month in an incident that Berlin has blamed on Russia. He said that he “gave Russia a clear warning” not to continue in the same vein, adding: “We can defend ourselves, we can fight back and we will do so.” Wadephul told German public broadcaster ZDF that he had also offered Lavrov “a chance to de-escalate” in Ukraine, adding that it had “fallen on deaf ears”. “I also made it very clear to Russia: we stand with Ukraine, Ukraine has our full support, and economic pressure on Russia will continue,” he said. “I said that again to Lavrov and called on him finally to be prepared to enter talks.” The meeting lasted around 20 minutes and ended with a handshake between the two men. I support diplomacy and dialogue as a means of resolving issues. But I am also aware that isolating Russia diplomatically is an important way of putting pressure on Russia to end the mayhem it unleashed in Ukraine. The German Foreign Minister has to ask himself if the 20 minute meeting with Lavrov was worth easing that pressure. The last time Lavrov met a German foreign minister was in January 2022, the month before Putin launched his full-scale assault on Ukraine. Europe must continue supporting Ukraine, and isolating Russia should be part of that strategy. On the other hand engaging with Russia as part of a search for a solution is necessary. Balancing the two considerations is a difficult business, and Europe is best acting in a united fashion on this matter too. (click image to read the Monday Commentary in full).

There are two early 20th-century tunes that mark foreign attempts to occupy and “pacify” Yemen. The Scottish tune “The barren rocks of Aden” marks the mobilisation of Highland soldiers, enlisted to be deployed to the Yemeni port of Aden, that in 1837 became the last colony to be incorporated into the British Empire. The tune talks of the harshness of the terrain, but is celebratory, It was even played as a farewell tune to Sir William Luce at the parade in Sharjah celebrating his end as “British Viceroy” in the Middle East in 1966. The second tune is an Anatolian lament. As Ilker Sezer reminded us this weekend, in his weekly feature on “Turkiye Today”, it “mourns the tragic fate of Ottoman soldiers dispatched to the harsh, remote deserts of Yemen during the fall of the empire, young men who marched away from their villages and never returned home. Most of their names, and numbers, were never recorded. Yet, their fate left a mark on the Turkish psyche.” Subsequent invaders have discovered that Yemen is a grave that cannot be overcome by the strength of modern technology, and that whilst Yemeni society is splintered and divided, building a reliable alliance with Yemeni factions is difficult. These are the harsh lessons facing Saudi Arabia, as the Kingdom faces its biggest challenge in its modern history. The leadership of the Kingdom now has to respond decisively. At stake is their very credibility. This is likely to be a long and messy conflict. Saudi military objectives need to be focused: to box in the Houthis rather than destroy them. This is likely to include: (a) regaining territory lost on the Red Sea coast; (b) control over Bab el Mandeb Strait; (c) some kind of cordon sanitaire on the Saudi-Yemeni border; and if things go well (d) the capture of Sanaa. All this would not eliminate the Houthi problem, but it will contain it. In the end the Saudis will have to continue managing Yemen with a mixture of carrot and stick. For the moment, the stick is likely, but the carrot cannot be forgotten either. (click the image to read the Monday Commentary in full)