Conflict and Peace

Over the past two years, numerous unofficial deadlines have been set for signing the Armenia-Azerbaijan peace treaty. Until the end of last year, the people of both countries held their breath in anticipation of a breakthrough, encouraged by officials on both sides who deemed an agreement possible. Later, there was significant optimism that the two former adversaries might reach a deal during the United Nations Climate Conference (COP29) which was held on November 11-24 in Baku.

The recent BRICS summit held on 22-24 October in the Russian city of Kazan, featured the first talks in the last few months between the Azerbaijani and Armenian leadership. The countries were represented by President Aliyev and Prime Minister Pashinyan as well as the foreign ministers, Bayramov and Mirzoyan. Pashinyan declared that at the moment “all the matters of principles have been addressed and resolved” by the draft treaty, although Armenia’s chief diplomat Mirzoyan toned his statement a bit down, claiming that the document “is at least 80-90% agreed upon”.

With the conclusion of the United Nations Climate Change Conference COP29 in Azerbaijan, discussions with Armenia on normalising relations are expected to resume in December. However, it remains uncertain whether an agreement will be reached anytime soon, as past attempts to finalise talks have consistently fallen short. That said, there may now be some clarity regarding the three key issues believed to be preventing a breakthrough. In early November, Farid Shafiyev, Chair of the Centre for Analysis of International Relations (AIR) in Azerbaijan, shared on X what he claims are the specific points left unresolved.

November marks the fourth anniversary of the end of the 2020 Karabakh war. It was also the month considered as an informal deadline for initialling or signing some kind of document ending the conflict between Yerevan and Baku or at least a joint statement cementing points agreed in peace talks to date. Instead, having failed to do so by the time of this month's United Nations Climate Change Conference COP29 in Baku, and with Yerevan effectively shunning the event, Azerbaijan says that negotiations will now resume in December. As usual, Azerbaijan says Armenia must change its constitution. Armenia refuses to do so – or at least not until other constitutional changes are put to referendum still most likely in 2027. 

On Monday (28 October), Azerbaijan held a meeting in Baku with NATO's Climate and Energy Security Sector representatives from the Innovation, Hybrid Issues and Cybersecurity Division and representatives from NATO member and partner countries to discuss energy security and climate change. 

Since 7 October 2023, when Hamas killed 1,139 innocent civilians in Israel, the Israeli government has been conducting military operations in the Gaza Strip that have taken the lives of 43,552 Palestinians. As the death toll of Palestinians is increasing, the UN General Assembly has asked the International Court of Justice to give an advisory opinion on Israel’s military operations in Palestine. The International Court of Justice (ICJ) in The Hague issued an advisory opinion on 19th July 2024, stating that Israel’s continued presence in the occupied Palestinian territory is illegal under International Law. The ICJ also argued that states must not assist via financial, military or political aid to the Israeli government in maintaining its unlawful occupation (para. 273-279). It is important to note that although advisory opinions are not binding on states, they carry great legal weight by clarifying the application of international law and having moral authority. 

Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev exchanged brief words during a plenary session at the BRICS summit in Kazan. 

On 18 October, the 3+3 regional cooperation platform which hypothetically includes Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia “plus” three surrounding powers (Türkiye, Iran, and Russia) convened the third meeting at the ministerial level, though again without the participation of Georgia. Hosted by Türkiye in Istanbul, the meeting took place amidst a sensitive security situation in the wider region due to the ramifications of the Russia-Ukraine war, the potential Iran-Israel war, the upcoming fateful parliamentary elections in Georgia, and certainly, the persisting challenges in the Armenia-Azerbaijan peace process.