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Monday Commentary
Monday Commentary: Europe still needs the OSCE

Monday Commentary: Europe still needs the OSCE

The Ministerial Council of the Organisation for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) will have its annual meeting in Vienna on 4-5 December. Foreign Ministers from the 57 member states, which also include the United States and Canada, and the Central Asian republics, and 11 partner countries, will congregate to discuss the future of European Security at a time when many believe that war in Europe over the next decade is likely. Ukraine is just a rehearsal for Russia’s ultimate ambitions. British diplomacy used to describe the OSCE as “the organization to manage Russia”. It has not done a good job of that, but this task remains paramount. The Ministerial Council will be the last major business of this year’s chairmanship, Finland, and will launch the new Chairmanship for 2026, Switzerland. The OSCE has been moribund for some time, and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, nearly ended it. But Europe still needs the OSCE, and there is hope that it will take a new lease of life in 2026. Switzerland has held the Chairmanship of the OSCE twice before, successfully. It has the experience, a wide network of embassies, and an able team in Bern, to successfully start what is likely to be a long and laborious journey. The new Chairman-in-office is Swiss Federal Foreign Minister Councillor, Ignazio Cassis. Cassis is also the current Vice President of the Swiss Confederation, and is fluent in Italian, English, German and French. Quite unusual also is the fact that currently the General Secretary of the OSCE is a Turk. Feridun Sinirlioğlu is an experienced Turkish diplomat, who has held the position for a year. Between them, Cassis and Sinirlioğlu will have to craft out the new OSCE, but in the end, it will largely depend on the will of the member states, including Russia. A new, reborn, OSCE, must understand that its core task remains European peace and security. It should resist the temptation of “looking busy” with a lot of secondary things. After peace and security return to Europe, it can consider other tasks. But we are far away from that yet. (Click the image to read the full commentary)
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Pope's visit to Türkiye and Lebanon has a strong ecumenical character, and places interreligious dialogue at its centre

Pope's visit to Türkiye and Lebanon has a strong ecumenical character, and places interreligious dialogue at its centre

Pope Leo XIV has begun the first overseas trip of his pontificate, a six-day visit to Türkiye and Lebanon, which started yesterday (27 November) and ends on Tuesday (2 December). According to Vatican Radio, the visit "carries a strong ecumenical character and places interreligious dialogue at its centre. It will also be a moment of closeness to Christian communities and local populations across the region".   During nearly a week in the region, Pope Leo XIV will meet civil and religious authorities, visit mosques and ancient churches, pray at Beirut’s port in memory of the victims of the 2020 explosion, and hold private meetings with Presidents Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and Joseph Aoun.   A highlight of the visit will be a visit to Nicaea, where the Pope will mark the anniversary of the Council of Nicaea. Christians of many traditions recognise the Council of Nicaea as a foundation of shared faith. One of the most anticipated moments will be the Pope’s encounter with Lebanese youth in Bkerké, at the Maronite Patriarchate, a meeting expected to carry strong messages of hope in the Jubilee Year. A central event will be the ecumenical celebration in İznik, where the Pope and Ecumenical Patriarch Bartholomew will walk together toward the ruins of the Basilica of St Neophytos. The prayer, held before icons of Christ and the Council, will conclude with the lighting of a candle—a symbolic gesture of unity. The journey will also highlight interreligious engagement.   Memorable moments are expected throughout the trip: a wreath at Atatürk’s mausoleum, prayer inside the Blue Mosque, Mass at Istanbul’s Volkswagen Arena, the planting of a cedar at the presidential palace in Beirut, and prayer at the tomb of St Charbel in Lebanon. The Vatican said that "Pope Leo XIV’s pilgrimage to Türkiye and Lebanon aims to offer a voice of peace, unity, and hope at the heart of the Middle East."

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Did Russia give Iran the technology for a hypersonic ballistic missile?

Did Russia give Iran the technology for a hypersonic ballistic missile?

Iran has announced that it has developed a hypersonic ballistic missile Iran’s Fars news agency quoted the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC) Aerospace Commander Brigadier General Amir Ali Hajizadeh as saying on Thursday (10 November) that the country has manufactured a hypersonic ballistic missile with advanced technologies that can penetrate all types of advanced air defence systems. Speaking to reporters Brig. Gen. Hajizadeh said “The missile can target the enemy’s anti-missile systems and is a great generational leap in the missile field”. “I don’t think any technology would be found for tens of years capable of countering it,” the IRGC commander declared. The announcement appears to have taken defence analysts by surprise, and concern has been expressed in different quarters Hypersonic missiles can deliver nuclear weapons in the same way as traditional ballistic missiles, but they can fly at more than five times the speed of sound and are highly maneuverable, making them impossible to track and defend against. Unlike ballistic missiles, hypersonic missiles fly on a low trajectory in the atmosphere, and are able to reach targets more quickly. Several countries have developed systems designed to defend against cruise and ballistic missiles, but the ability to track and take down a hypersonic missile remains elusive. Iran’s claim to have developed such a missile raises the question of where Tehran obtained the technology.
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Blinken hosts Armenian and Azerbaijan counterparts for talks about peace

Blinken hosts Armenian and Azerbaijan counterparts for talks about peace

US Secretary of State, Antony Blinken, on Monday hosted at Blair House in Washington DC, talks with his Armenian and Azerbaijani counterparts, foreign minister Ararat Mirzoyan and foreign minister Bayramov. The ministers exchanged views on the elements of a possible peace agreement, noting that there were a number of outstanding issues. Both sides reaffirmed the commitments made by the leaders of Azerbaijan and Armenia at the meetings held on October 6 in Prague and October 31 in Sochi. Bayramov and Mirzoyan also agreed to speed up negotiations and hold another meeting in the coming weeks. Both ministers thanked the American side for hosting the peace talks between Azerbaijan and Armenia.
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Scholz manoevres a tricky visit to Beijing

Scholz manoevres a tricky visit to Beijing

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz travelled to Beijing on Friday for a one-day visit, which included a meeting with China's leader President Xi Jinping. The visit has been criticised in some quarters but has been welcomed by German business leaders, some of who accompanied Scholz on the trip. Scholz’s visit reflects the importance of Germany’s trade ties with China, the world’s second-largest economy, particularly in the auto and manufacturing sectors. Mercedes Benz alone sold 758,863 cars in China last year, more than in any other country, according to company figures. The visit is the first by a European leader to China following the Russian invasion of Ukraine in November. China has given diplomatic cover to Russia but has stopped short of actively supporting the Russian invasion. Scholz received a formal welcome from Xi, who was recently reappointed head of the ruling Communist Party, at the Great Hall of the People in the heart of Beijing. Xi noted that Scholz’s visit comes as the two countries mark more than 50 years of diplomatic relations dating back to when they relaunched economic exchanges, despite their Cold War rivalry, that remain a key part of the relationship to this day. “At present, the international situation is complex and changeable,” Xi was quoted as saying by state broadcaster CCTV. “As influential powers, China and Germany should work together in times of change and chaos to make more contributions to world peace and development.”
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All power to Xi

All power to Xi

It happened as was planned and expected. On Sunday (23 Ocotber) China's President Xi Jinping, was named to another term as head of the ruling Communist Party in a break with tradition that sees him becoming the paramount leader of China. In the process Xi also promoted allies who support his vision of tighter control over society and the struggling economy. Xi, who took power in 2012 was awarded a third five-year term as general secretary, discarding a custom under which his predecessor left after 10 years. The 69-year-old leader is expected by some to try to stay in power for life. The apex of power in China is the seven member standing committee of the Politburo of the Communist Party. Xi and the other six men who form Standing Committee, appeared for the first time as a group before reporters in the Great Hall of the People, in central Beijing. The lineup appeared to reflect what some commentators called “Maximum Xi,” valuing loyalty over ability. Some new leaders lack national-level experience as vice premier or Cabinet minister that typically is seen as a requirement for the post.
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Truss resigns as British prime minister after only 45 days in office

Truss resigns as British prime minister after only 45 days in office

Liz Truss has resigned as UK prime minister and leader of the Conservative Party in a statement outside Downing Street on Thursday afternoon (20 October) She said she could not deliver the mandate on which she was elected as Tory leader and had notified the King that she was resigning A Conservative leadership election will be completed within the next week, she said "I will remain as prime minister until a successor has been chosen," she said Her departure after 45 days in office makes her the shortest-serving PM in UK history Truss's premiership has been in turmoil since her mini-budget last month, which rocked markets and was later scrapped by her new chancellor The resignation of her home secretary on Wednesday and a chaotic vote in the Commons sealed her fate. The appointment of Truss as a prime minister, after a long selection process within the Conservative Party was the last act of Queen Elizabeth II before her death.
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Commentary
Monday Commentary: Comrade Xi's party

Monday Commentary: Comrade Xi's party

An event on the other side of the world that started on Sunday has huge global importance and will define international politics for decades to come. The 20th Congress of the Communist Party of China (CPC) is perhaps not the most important ever in terms of its impact within China itself, but when it comes to China’s role in the world it certainly is. This is not only because China is today stronger than it has ever been in modern times, but also because the congress gives the seal of approval to a Chinese global posture that is assertive, ambitious and with as yet an undefined end-game. That end-game is being defined by Xi Jinping, who during this congress is expected to be confirmed in his post as  Party leader for an unprecedented third term. President Xi has been making speeches both at the main session of the Congress and at side events. This morning he told a meeting of Communist activists on the fringe of the main event, that Chinese people should stay united as "a piece of hard steel" under the leadership of the Communist Party of China (CPC) and “pull together with one mind to power the giant ship of national rejuvenation through the wind and waves to reach its destination.” In a more formal speech to the Congress plenum a day before Xi had given an indication of what that destination is: “Incomparable glory’ awaits China on world stage”, Xi Jinping told the party congress. By 2049, when the People’s Republic will hold centennial celebrations, China should become a leading power in all aspects, the leader stated So no modesty or lack of ambition here. But what does this mean for the rest of the world?
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Russia isolated

Russia isolated

Russia found itself in the company of only four other countries at a vote at the UN General Assembly on Wednesday (12 October) which condemned its annexation of Ukrainian territory The resolution calls on all States, the UN and international organisations not to recognize any of Russia’s annexation claim and demands the immediate reversal of its annexation declaration. 143 courties supported the resolution that condemned Russia's annexations. The four countries that supported Russia were Belarus, Nicaragua, North Korea, and Syria 35 countries abstained, namely: Algeria, Armenia, Bolivia, Burundi, Central African Republic, China, Republic of the Congo, Cuba, Eritrea, Eswatini, Ethiopia, Guinea, Honduras, India, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Laos, Lesotho, Mali, Mongolia, Mozambique, Namibia, Pakistan, South Africa, South Sudan, Sri Lanka, Sudan, Tajikistan, Tanzania, Thailand, Togo, Uganda, Uzbekistan, Vietnam, Zimbabwe. Ten countries were absent and so their vote was not recorded. They were: Azerbaijan, Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Djibouti, El Salvador, Equatorial Guinea, Iran, Sao Tome and Principle, Turkmenistan and Venezuela.