Geostrategic Europe

The European Union on Thursday 23 October applied more economic sanctions on Russia, adding to U.S. President Donald Trump’s new punitive measures the previous day against the Russian oil industry. However, EU leaders meeting in Brussels have so far failed to reach a deal on using Russian frozen assets. European capitals were hoping to convince Belgium, which houses the international deposit organisation Euroclear and is worried about legal repercussions, that a reparation loan from the funds is workable. Most of the €200 billion in Russian central bank assets frozen by the EU are held in Euroclear. However, Belgian Prime Minister Bart De Wever has so far been skeptical, reiterating during the European Council meeting on Thursday that certain conditions must first be met before a €140 billion loan can be given to Ukraine using Russia’s frozen assets. Russian officials and state media dismissed the new Western measures, saying they are largely ineffective.

Will the Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity (TRIPP) set to connect Azerbaijan with Nakhijevan and Türkiye via Armenia help establish lasting peace and prosperity for all?  Interestingly, if the Washington Declaration speaks about restoration of all communications, with reciprocal benefits for Armenia, the spotlight has been about the TRIPP and only about it. This oversight misses a vital point necessary for lasting peace and stability in the region.

The 12th Summit of the Organization of Turkic States (OTS), held on 7 October 2025 in Gabala, Azerbaijan, marked a decisive stage in the evolution of integration within the Turkic world. Under the theme “Regional Peace and Security,” the summit, chaired by President Ilham Aliyev, brought together leaders from Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Türkiye, Uzbekistan, and observer states Hungary, Turkmenistan, and the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus. Gabala’s historical symbolism as a crossroads of the Caucasus and Central Asia reflected the OTS’s broader vision of unity, connectivity, and shared destiny.

Hamas freed the last living Israeli hostages from Gaza on Monday 13 October under a ceasefire deal and Israel sent home busloads of Palestinian detainees, as U.S. President Donald Trump declared the end of the two-year long war in the Middle East. Hours later, Trump convened Muslim and European leaders in Egypt to discuss the future of the Gaza Strip and the possibility of a wider regional peace, even as Hamas and Israel, both absent from the gathering, are yet to agree on the next steps. The Israeli military said it had received all 20 hostages confirmed to be alive, after their transfer form Gaza by the Red Cross. The announcement prompted cheering, hugging and weeping among thousands waiting at "Hostage Square" in Tel Aviv. In Gaza, thousands of relatives, many weeping with joy, gathered at a hospital where buses brought home some of the nearly 2,000 Palestinian prisoners and detainees to be freed by Israel as part of the accord. "The skies are calm, the guns are silent, the sirens are still and the sun rises on a Holy Land that is finally at peace," Trump told the Knesset, Israel's parliament, saying a "long nightmare" for both Israelis and Palestinians was over.

Multilateralism: the concept whereby countries work together on common tasks and challenges, regardless of disagreements, seems currently out of favour. Three developments appear to seal its fate: first, the return of an emboldened Donald Trump to the White House has triggered a new phase of American particularism; second, Russia’s unprovoked invasion of Ukraine in 2022 has created a division in Europe not seen since WWII; third, increased scepticism in the Global South has seen countries or groups of countries adopting a negative view of engagement, particularly with regard to western countries. The European Union (EU) is itself an organisation built on the concept of multilateralism: 27 members states voluntarily join to pool resources and work together. It is a success story, and when someone wants to leave, it can do so as Britain did in 2019. But the EU is a multilateralist player in in own right on the world stage, and it takes this role seriously. The European Council stated that "The European Union will remain a predictable, reliable, and credible partner and welcomes the opportunity to work together in a changing environment with all its partners, as well as with the United Nations and its agencies in driving forward the internal reform process – the UN80 initiative – to ensure that the United Nations remains effective, cost-efficient and responsive.” The commitment is crystal clear. The question is how? It takes two to tango, and the partner of the EU on multilateralism can be China. Unlike the US, China pays lip service to multilateralism, but it actions on Taiwan, the South China Sea, Ukraine, and a lot of other issues, speak a different story. The EU needs to engage China on the multilateral agenda, but needs to do so carefully and selectively. One area were co-operation is necessary and possible is the UN. Donald Trump’s rant at this year’s UN General Assembly is not without justification. The UN needs fixing, but the US proposes to throw out the baby with the bath water. The EU and China can fix this. Reform of the UN is a topic on which the two can work together. They should. On multilateralism the European Union, can and should lead. It must galvanise all its resources, including civil society, a sector where the EU has a lead by far, in the process.

Russian President Vladimir Putin arrived in Tajikistan in Central Asia to attend meetings with leaders of other ex-Soviet republics likely to focus on regional development and their relations with Moscow, according to Reuters. A Kremlin announcement said Putin would take part, on Thursday 9 October, in a Russia-Central Asia summit, also to be attended by the leaders of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan. They will then be joined by the leaders of Armenia, Azerbaijan and Belarus at a meeting of the broader Commonwealth of Independent States bringing together former Soviet republics.

Denmark said on Wednesday that it would for the first time acquire "long-range precision weapons", citing the need to deter Russia, as Moscow's ambassador to Copenhagen called the move "pure madness". Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen told a press conference that the move was "a paradigm shift in Danish defence policy". "For the first time, Denmark is to build up military capacity in the form of long-range precision weapons," she told reporters.Frederiksen added that Russia would constitute a threat to Denmark and Europe "for years to come" and a decision was made to create a "credible deterrence".

US President Donald Trump is meeting UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer on Thursday 18 September, the final day of the U.S. leader’s state visit to the UK with tech investment, steel tariffs and potentially tricky topics on the agenda. The President and first lady Melania Trump were feted by King Charles III and Queen Camilla on Wednesday at Windsor Castle with significant pageantry including gold-trimmed carriages, scarlet-clad soldiers, artillery salutes and a glittering banquet in a grand ceremonial hall. 

The President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen stated she would push to sanction "extremist" Israeli ministers and curb trade ties over Gaza, as she warned famine should not be used as a "weapon of war". Addressing the European Parliament on 10 September in the annual State of the Union, von der Leyen lamented that divisions among member states were holding back a European response but insisted the European Commission "will do all that it can on its own". "What is happening in Gaza has shaken the conscience of the world. People killed while begging for food. Mothers holding lifeless babies. These images are simply catastrophic," von der Leyen said. The German politician said the Commission would put its bilateral support to Israel on hold, stopping all payments, but without affecting work with civil society groups and Israel's Yad Vashem Holocaust memorial.