Geostrategic Europe

A Ukrainian citizen suspected of participating in the undersea explosions in 2022 that damaged the Nord Stream gas pipelines between Russia and Germany has been arrested, German prosecutors said on Thursday 21 August. The suspect, identified only as Serhii K. in line with German privacy rules, was arrested overnight in Italy’s Rimini province, federal prosecutors said. According to an AP report, they added that he is believed to be one of the coordinators of the operation.

Russian President Vladimir Putin Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky look set for a peace summit after fast-moving talks on Monday 18 August between Donald Trump and European leaders that focused on the key issue of long-term security guarantees for Kyiv. Hopes of a breakthrough rose after Trump said he had spoken by phone with Russian counterpart Putin, whom he met in Alaska last week, following a "very good" meeting with the Europeans and the Ukrainian president at the White House on Monday.

Key European leaders will join Ukrainian president Zelensky at talks with US president, Donald Trump, in Washington on Monday (18 August). Zelensky is currently in Brussels where he met with European Commission president, Ursula von der Leyen. European leaders have announced they will be joining Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on a trip to the White House on Monday. They include UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer, Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, Finnish President Alexander Stubb, French President Emmanuel Macron, Nato Secretary-General Mark Rutte and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen. Speaking to the press after her meeting with president Zelensky, Von der Leyen said she is glad to be accompanying Zelensky and other European leaders to Washington tomorrow.

It is now 31 years since I first travelled from London to the South Caucasus to report from what was then Nagorno Karabakh. Since then, I’ve covered almost every dimension of the conflict. From the Azerbaijani POWs and civilian hostages I encountered on my first trip to Karabakh in 1994, through the ethnic Armenian refugees from Azerbaijan struggling to rebuild their lives in Armenia that same year and then from 1999, and the lingering danger of landmines and unexploded ordnance that plagued the seven formerly occupied regions of Azerbaijan surrounding Karabakh throughout the 2000s. They still claim lives today.

European Union leaders have appealed to U.S. President Donald Trump to defend their security interests at a summit with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin on Friday 15 August over the war in Ukraine. EU leaders are doing their best to exert some influence over the summit that they have been sidelined from. It remains unclear whether even Ukraine will take part but EU leaders underlined that “the path to peace in Ukraine cannot be decided without Ukraine.” According to AP, Trump has said that he wants to see whether Putin is serious about ending the war now in its fourth year. In a statement on Tuesday 12 August, EU leaders said that they “welcome the efforts of President Trump towards ending Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine.” The European Union will make a fresh attempt to rally Trump to Ukraine’s cause on Wednesday at virtual meetings convened by German Chancellor Friedrich Merz. Trump did not confirm whether he would take part, but he stated: “I’m going to get everybody’s ideas” before meeting with Putin.

A meeting between Russian President Vladimir Putin and U.S. President Donald Trump has been agreed, a Kremlin official said on Thursday 7 August, the eve of a White House deadline for Moscow to show progress toward ending the 3-year-old war in Ukraine. Putin’s foreign affairs adviser Yuri Ushakov, quoted by AP, said a summit could possibly take place next week at a venue that has been decided “in principle.” Next week is the target date for a summit, Ushakov said, while noting that such events take time to organise and no date is confirmed. The possible venue will be announced “a little later,” he said.

Azerbaijan and Armenia are expected to sign a memorandum of understanding in Washington on Friday 8 August, committing to the pursuit of peace, according to regional sources who spoke to Middle East Eye (MEE). The move commits the two countries to a future peace deal amid increasing US influence in the South Caucasus. The sources said that US President Donald Trump will host Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev and Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan at the White House for the signing ceremony.

Uncertainty has again emerged along the Armenia-Iran border as the risk of the long-standing conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan turning into further geopolitical competition continues. What was once a post-war localised disagreement over territory and sovereignty is now entangled in a web of regional interests and strategic manoeuvring. Increasingly, peace risks being shaped less by the needs of local populations but more by the calculations of distant capitals. External interference has rather delayed progress almost five years since the 2020 war. If peace is the objective, then the region needs inclusive not selective diplomacy and definitely not new geopolitical fault lines.