Geostrategic Europe

Uncertainty has again emerged along the Armenia-Iran border as the risk of the long-standing conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan turning into further geopolitical competition continues. What was once a post-war localised disagreement over territory and sovereignty is now entangled in a web of regional interests and strategic manoeuvring. Increasingly, peace risks being shaped less by the needs of local populations but more by the calculations of distant capitals. External interference has rather delayed progress almost five years since the 2020 war. If peace is the objective, then the region needs inclusive not selective diplomacy and definitely not new geopolitical fault lines.

Russian glide bombs and ballistic missiles struck a Ukrainian prison and a medical facility overnight as Russia’s relentless strikes killed at least 22 people across the country, officials said on Tuesday 29 July, despite U.S. President Donald Trump’s threat to punish Russia with sanctions and tariffs unless it stops. Trump said on Monday he is giving Russian President Vladimir Putin 10 to 12 days to stop the killing in Ukraine after three years of war, moving up a 50-day deadline he had given the Russian leader two weeks ago. “I’m disappointed in President Putin,” Trump said during a visit to Scotland.

China and the European Union have issued a joint call to action on climate change during an otherwise tense bilateral summit in Beijing on Thursday 24 July but major disagreements remain over trade and the war in Ukraine.  The two sides issued a joint statement on climate change, urging more emission cuts and greater use of green technology and affirming their support for the Paris Climate Agreement as well as calling for strong action at the upcoming COP30 climate summit in Brazil. European Council President António Costa called on China to use its influence over Russia to bring an end to the war in Ukraine, a long-standing plea from European leaders that is likely to fall once again on deaf ears.

Ukrainians are taking to the streets to protest a new law they worry will undermine the work of two key anti-corruption agencies and erode the independence of bodies meant to provide a check on power. Protests are growing and spreading around the country even as President Volodymyr Zelenskyy offered a vague new bill to alleviate demonstrators’ concerns. After a day of pressure from Ukrainian citizens, the European Commission and many European governments, Zelenskyy said he “heard the public opinion” and promised to fix the situation with a new bill that he pledged would preserve the independence of corruption agencies.

Israel’s isolation is increasing as twenty eight countries including the United Kingdom and a majority of Member States of the European Union issued a joint statement on Monday 21 July saying the war in Gaza “must end now” and condemning Israel over 'inhumane killing' of Gaza civilians seeking aid. The foreign ministers of countries, also including Australia, Canada, the Netherlands, France, Italy and Japan, said “the suffering of civilians in Gaza has reached new depths.” The statement described as “horrifying” the recent deaths of over 800 Palestinians who were seeking aid, according to the figures released by Gaza’s Health Ministry and the U.N. human rights office.

After a long hiatus following the Brussels summit facilitated by Charles Michel, then President of the European Council, in July 2023, the leaders of Armenia and Azerbaijan met on July 10, 2025, in Abu Dhabi, the capital of the United Arab Emirates (UAE), to advance their peace process. Although they had met on several occasions over the past two years, those encounters took place on the sidelines of international gatherings, with substantive negotiations typically conducted by official representatives behind closed doors. The Abu Dhabi meeting was particularly significant as it marked the first bilateral summit in recent years organized directly by the two sides, without the mediation of a major power.

US President Donald Trump on Monday threatened Russia with steep tariffs unless a peace deal is reached within 50 days and announced a rejuvenated pipeline for American weapons to reach Ukraine, hardening his stance toward Moscow after months of frustration about unsuccessful negotiations for ending the war. The latest steps reflect an evolving approach from the Republican president, who promised to swiftly resolve the war started by Russian President Vladimir Putin when he invaded Ukraine three years ago. In the past, Trump focused his criticism on Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, whom he described as unwilling to compromise, but more recently has expressed growing irritation towards Putin. In addition, Trump said European allies would buy “billions and billions” of dollars of U.S. military equipment to be transferred to Ukraine, replenishing the besieged country’s supplies of weapons. He made the announcement in the Oval Office alongside NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte.

Depending on whom you ask, last week’s meeting between Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev in Abu Dhabi was either a historic development or simply another routine step in the still-fragile peace process. In an interview with Slovak media prior to the talks last week, Azerbaijani presidential advisor Hikmet Hajiyev even claimed the conflict between the sides is now over. Both sides believed that they were now the closest to formalising a peace treaty than at any time before.

Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev are meeting on Thursday 10 July in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates, to discuss the next steps in finalising the peace agreement, their offices have confirmed to international news agencies. This is the first formal bilateral meeting between the leaders of Armenia and Azerbaijan since they agreed on the draft text of the peace agreement, following nearly four decades of conflict. The results of this meeting will shape the future of the South Caucasus and how the two countries can live peacefully next to each other after decades of conflict.