Conflict and Peace

Poland has announced that it will supply Ukraine with more Soviet-era MiG-29 fighter jets after Berlin approved Warsaw's request to re-export the jets originally from East German stocks. Following the German government's approval of the re-export on Thursday (13 April), the total number of fighter jets that Poland has committed to sending to Ukraine will likely be around 20. Poland had earlier pledged 14 MiG-29s to Ukraine, with four having already been delivered. The Polish president's security adviser, Jacek Siewiera, has said Poland still has about 12 out of 23 MiG-29s that Poland bought from Germany 21 years ago, none of which have yet been sent to Ukraine. Yesterday's approval from Berlin will likely change this. Slovakia has also delivered four of its MiG-29 jets to Ukraine, with the government having approved 13. Despite the transfer of the Soviet-era jets to Ukraine being very helpful, Yurii Ihnat, Ukraine’s Air Force spokesperson, has said they are "unlikely to be a game changer at the front".

Another serious incident between Armenian and Azerbaijani armed forces happened on Tuesday (11 April) in the border area of Tegh, resulting in several Armenian and Azerbaijani servicemen being killed or injured. In Armenia, as in Azerbaijan, someone lost a son; someone lost a husband; someone lost a father. One can argue about who started, who shot first, and why. The truth is that incidents like this are going to continue happening for as long as the Armenian and Azerbaijani leaderships do not finish what they started, and take the necessary steps to normalise relations between them. Normalisation leading to peace, leading eventually to co-operation, is the endgame that both sides have publicly committed to. But the process continues to drag on as both sides remain attached to maximalist or unattainable positions. This state of affairs can drag on for a long time to come unless there is a resolute political will to move forward. And in the meantime, young Armenians and young Azerbaijanis die on a regular basis. Let’s be clear, every casualty is a sign of the failure of the political leadership, and declaring the victims heroes is not enough.

On Tuesday (11 April), the Russian State Duma adopted a bill to create a digital unified register of Russian citizens eligible for military service in an apparent attempt to crack down on draft dodgers. According to the Institute for the Study of War, the register will harvest Russians' personal details - including medical, educational, and residence history, foreign citizenship status, and insurance and tax data - to establish whether someone is eligible. The draft law also approves summonses to be issued online. In the past, summonses have had to be delivered in person or to an employer, meaning that many have avoided the draft by moving away from where they live, or by not opening the door to military officials. If the summoned individual does not appear at the draft office within 20 days, they will be banned from driving vehicles, buying or selling real estate, and taking out loans, as well as leaving the country. Creating the register is likely a method to replace some of the "colossal losses" that Russia has faced in recent days, particularly near the settlements of Avdiivka and Marinka, according to the Ukrainian military.

Although we are in the middle of the holy month of Ramadan, and peace is in the air across the whole of the Muslim Middle East, commonspace.eu writes in this editorial that "problems are being patched up, not resolved. Many of the causes or factors that triggered the conflicts in the first place remain as acute as ever. But for the moment the region is exhausted. Visionary leaders need time and space to implement their reforms; others such as the Iranian clerical regime, need time to regroup after being rattled by internal and external turmoil. There is then the issue of the wider picture. The Gulf region has for decades been the epicentre of geopolitical rivalry, which often overspilled into violence. It appears to be now losing this unenviable role. Open warfare is ongoing on the European continent following the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. This is unlikely to end any time soon."

The European and Global international system is broken. Whilst others have contributed to its decline and subversion in the past, it was Russia’s actions in Ukraine, and other parts of the former Soviet space before that, that have dealt it the decisive fatal blow."What is desperately needed in the international system are rules, and the mechanism to ensure that these rules are abided with", writes Dennis Sammut in today's Monday Commentary. "Multi-polarity may sound like an attractive solution, especially to small countries who have been under pressure from bigger players or international actors, but with closer inspection, on its own, it is not."

Russia has shelled Ukraine's southern Kherson Oblast 70 times over the past 24 hours, the region's Governor Oleksandr Prokudin said on Telegram on Monday morning (10 April). Firing a total of 360 shells in 78 attacks, 17 shells hit residential areas of the city of Kherson. There were no casualties reported, however, and 90 people were evacuated from areas of the oblast under Ukrainian government control. Ever since areas of Kherson region were liberated by Ukrainian forces in November 2022, the right bank of the Dnipro river has frequently been shelled by Russia firing across the river, causes regular civilians injuries and deaths. Meanwhile, documents recently leaked from US intelligence to The New York Times have revealed that Russia is supposedly offering an extra bonus to troops who that successfully damage or destroy NATO-supplied tanks in Ukraine.

The Israeli military (IDF) has carried out air stikes on the Palestinian militant group Hamas in southern Lebanon and the Gaza Strip overnight on 6-7 April. The military said they launched the strikes in response to a 34-rocket barrage fired from southern Lebanon into Israel on Thursday (6 April), which it blamed on Hamas. It was the biggest attack from Lebanon in 17 years. The Israeli military have said that 25 of the rockets fired from Lebanon were intercepted, but five hit Israeli territory. After the retaliatory strikes began, militants in Gaza then fired some 44 rockets into Israel, most of which were either intercepted by Israel's Iron Dome defence system or fell in open areas, according to the IDF. At least one house in the city of Sderot was hit, however. According to the IDF, more than 10 Hamas targets were hit in Gaza, including a shaft for an underground site to construct weapons, three other weapons workshops and an underground tunnel. There have thus far been no casualties reported from either the strikes or the overnight rocket fire, however a man was injured by shrapnel in northern Israel on Thursday afternoon as a result of the rocket barrage from Lebanon.