This commentary, by Dr Dennis Sammut, Managing Editor of commonspace.eu, was first published on the electronic newsletter Arabia Concise on 16 January 2024.
The six Gulf monarchies that form the Gulf Co-operation Council (GCC) – Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates – project themselves as islands of peace and stability regardless of their difficult neighbourhood. For some time now their main focus has been the development of their economies – this to ensure that they can maintain their prosperity as the world transits away from hydrocarbon energy resources which up to now has been their main source of income. This they need to do not least to sustain the high standard of living to which their citizens have got used to. Ambitious plans, many costing tens of billions of euros to be implemented, are now in place. Most depend on peace, stability and tranquillity for their success. These attributes are these days in short supply in the wider region in which the GCC countries sit. An unprecedented level of war, crises and turmoil encircles the six countries.
Questions arise if the Gulf Monarchies have what it takes – not just in financial resources, and those things these resources can buy - but also in terms of wisdom, internal cohesion and strategic depth, to weather the storms of the future. Even if they are able to navigate the geopolitics of the moment, what impact is the tension that surrounds the region having on its domestic politics? Are the grandiose economic plans still viable, or is a more modest approach going to be necessary?
Difficult neighbourhood: old problems have become worse, new problems emerge with the potential to become even bigger
For half a century the Gulf region has been at the epicentre of crisis: Iraq’s invasion of Kuwait; the first and second Gulf Wars, and the fallout from the 9/11 attacks on the United States meant that the region has not been exactly a haven of peace. But even when taking that into account the present situation is unprecedented, and each crisis has the potential to escalate and spread.
A quick glance at the map shows the region encircled by ongoing conflicts, deep-rooted crises that can develop into violence very quickly and general instability, as competing regional and global interests jockey for power and influence.
Gaza War derails historic rapprochement with Israel
The Hamas attack on Israel on 7 October, and subsequent launch of an Israeli invasion of Gaza, has opened old wounds and created new ones. Israeli escalation, and its pursuit of what appears to many Arabs to be ethnic cleansing if not outright genocide of the Palestinian people has created disquiet amongst the Gulf Arabs. Their governments – possibly with the exception of Kuwait – had all been dancing around the issue of relations with Israel: Bahrain and UAE went so far as to recognise Israel fully and establish diplomatic relations; Oman and Qatar have had low-key but strong relations with Israel for a while, and as for Saudi Arabia, contacts have also been ongoing, and the establishment of relations was seen as the possible cherry on the cake of the whole process. Whilst the Abraham Accords cannot as yet be said to have been derailed, they are at best delayed, and probably permanently damaged.
With the war in Gaza past its 100th day this week, there is no end in sight, or at least none that would make the situation any better. The conflict has already spread way beyond Gaza, and the tragedy of the Palestinian people remains without any prospect of resolve.
Turmoil in the Levant
Closely related to this is the situation in Lebanon, a fragile state at the best of times, and where the pro Iranian Shia group Hizbullah shares a border with Israel. Low intensity violence continues on a daily basis. The chances it escalates into something bigger is very high.
Syria has been gripped by civil war for more than a decade. Damascus controls only parts of the country, and other different groups – from al Qaeda to US and Turkish proxies - fight between themselves and with the central government.
As a direct result of the US invasion, Iraq turned from being a Sunni-led state, into an Iran-friendly Shia state. In the north a de facto Kurdish state exists, nominally as part of a unified Iraq but separate for most intents and purposes. Different interest groups fight battles through proxies. This week Iran attacked targets in Iraqi Kurdistan, accusing them of being involved in a bloody terrorist attack against it at the start of the new year.
Iran remains the elephant in the room
And then of course there is Iran itself. Ever since the Islamic Revolution of 1979 the Gulf states have seen Iran and its Shia inspired ideology as a threat. GCC countries supported Iraq in its ten-year war with Iran in the 1980s. and learned the lesson that money alone does not win wars. On its part Iran has been is a state of tension with the US for decades. The latest, and most delicate bone of contention is Iran’s nuclear programme, which it insists is for peaceful purposes, but which everyone understands can easily be transformed for military means. When the US, EU and the international community made gestures of reconciliation to Iran as part of the so-called “nuclear deal”, Gulf Arabs were furious. That moment has passed, but left licking their wounds UAE and Saudi Arabia embarked on a historic reconciliation of their own with Iran. China brokered a deal between Saudi Arabia and Iran in 2022 with much fanfare. But emboldened by a changing international situation, Iran has maintained its bellicose stance, openly supporting turmoil across the Middle East, leaving the Gulf Arabs with little to show for their attempt to appease Tehran.
Nowhere is this showing itself more than in Yemen, where the Iranian backed Houthi Movement remains entrenched in the capital Sanaa, in the port of Hodeidah, and through most of northern Yemen. The Saudis tried to unseat the Houthis but failed. Instead, they saw strategic objects in their country targeted by Houthi missiles. But since October the situation has taken a dramatic turn with the Houthis attacking international shipping in the Red Sea and the Arabian Sea. This has brought it into direct confrontation with the United States which in the last days has launched strikes against Houthi targets across Yemen. The Houthis have promised revenge.
Conflicts in Sudan and the Horn of Africa
On the other side of the Red Sea, facing Saudi Arabia, a civil war is waging in Sudan. It has been overshadowed by other conflicts, but it no less vicious or deadly. It also has the potential to spread. And in the Horn of Africa, Ethiopia and Somalia appear ready to restart a war between them following Addis Ababa’s overtures towards the secessionist state of Somaliland, with whom it has agreed port rights.
The Egyptian time bomb
And to finish the circle there is Egypt itself – a country of more than a 100 million people that many Gulf Arabs consider a time bomb, given the political inadequacy of the current government, demographic challenges, and the grave economic situation. GCC states have for a long time propped up Cairo with big financial handouts. The demands keep getting bigger, and even the deep pockets of Qatar, Saudi Arabia and UAE may not be enough. For the moment Egypt appears outwardly calm, but under the surface, it is bubbling.
Managing the domestic situation will remain priority for the Gulf ruling families
The geopolitics of the region and the circle of crises that surrounds their countries are of course of grave concern for the GCC countries. But the number one concern remains the domestic political situation, and the two are not unrelated. Gaza has created disquiet amongst many Gulf citizens, including those who do not usually interest themselves in politics. Governance in the Gulf is based on an unwritten understanding that the people give their loyalty to the ruling families in return for the ruling families providing the people with prosperity. This has worked well so far, but as expectations increase pressures can be seen. Within the ruling families, fine balances worked out over decades, sometimes, centuries, keep the system together, often only just. But new threats emerge. News from the UAE in the first days of the year spoke about dozens of people being put on trail for sedition as part of a conspiracy led by the Muslim Brotherhood. In the meantime, the President of the UAE has been busy meeting some of the rulers of the northern emirates to discuss with them ambitious development projects. Abu Dhabi’s largesse has helped keep the UAE gelled together in the past, and is likely to continue to do so in the future.
Unity is desirable; missteps need to be avoided; vigilance and flexibility need to be the basis for future action
So is it all gloom and doom for the Gulf Arabs? Not really. Despite all the orientalist criticism that comes out from many Western media outlets, what countries like UAE and Qatar, and most recently Saudi Arabia, have achieved in recent years is amazing. Many Gulf citizens are very proud of these achievements.
It is clear that the more the Gulf countries can work together the better it is for them. But working together has in the past proven awkward. There are too many egos and ambitions. The reality demands that in the future these need to be better managed. The fast changes have also resulted in some missteps. In the current situation there is little room for mistakes. Going forward the GCC countries need to be highly vigilant. They also need to be flexible in their approach. But flexibility should not be confused with high stake gambles. Getting the balance right is what will determine the future of the GCC countries over the next decade or two.
